The Center for Economic and Political Reforms presented a new project - monitoring of socio-economic "hot spots" in Russia. On the website of the Center, you can now find a map thatclearly demonstrates cases of delays in salaries and other payments, layoffs, reductions in working hours and protests.

Rosstat records only a delay in wages - according to official data, now it is 3.9 billion rubles. There is no complete statistics on labor conflicts, so this project is the first of its kind.

At the moment, there are 132 "hot spots" on the map in 57 regions of Russia (data for January-February 2016). The information was obtained from open sources through a continuous in-depth content analysis of all media outlets (including regional ones) and publications on forums in social networks with a double-check of facts.

“It is already possible to identify certain leaders on the map,” said Nikolai Mironov, head of the CEPR. - First of all, this is the Ural industrial belt and the near-Ural regions: the Kirov region, the Perm region, the Sverdlovsk and Chelyabinsk regions. There is less protest in the capital, it is understandable: if there is money to move tiles, then there is something to pay for it. "

The situation, according to Mironov, will only get worse, because there are no positive trends in the country's economy. The head of the CEPR agreed that not all information gets into the media, but said that the organization plans to establish contacts with enterprises in order to receive information directly from employees.

The goal of the project, according to Nikolai Mironov, is to help people. Often, labor collectives, finding themselves in a difficult situation, do not know what to do. Most trade unions are weak organizations, which most often stand on the side of the employer. There is also little hope for officials and law enforcement agencies. Deputy Chairman of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation Valery Rashkin, who was present at the presentation of the project, offered free help. He called the map very useful and offered assistance in filling the map and in solving problems. In particular, the communist recalled the situation six months ago with the workers of Glavmosstroy. Then communist deputies Valery Rashkin and Andrei Klychkov helped the builders to achieve the payment of a debt of 90 million rubles. Rashkin said that he would definitely use the card data to help labor collectives.

You can report labor conflicts atc[email protected]

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On November 9, the Novaya Gazeta website published an article about the surge of protest actions in Russia recorded by researchers. Some experts argue that the pre-election cycle is to blame, since it is easier for him to achieve the fulfillment of his demands. However, the head of the Center for Economic and Political Reforms, Nikolai Mironov, who presented the report on the growth of protest sentiments, believes that this is a very narrow view of the problem. For the readers of Novaya Gazeta, Mironov explained what he considers to be the main reason for Russians to take to the streets.

The Center for Economic and Political Reforms (CEPR) has been systematically monitoring protests in Russia since 2016, although before that we conducted social research on this topic. We started by monitoring labor conflicts, because in 2015 there were suddenly a lot of them: wage delays began at enterprises throughout Russia. In fact, the situation of the 90s is being repeated now, when there were also massive non-payments - remember the same miners who knocked their helmets on the Gorbaty Bridge. We noted this tendency and began to observe it. Gradually, we began to observe other protest actions as well. And we publish their results.

It should be clarified that we do not just sit in the office and measure some parameters via the Internet. No, we have quite a lot of contacts with the protesters, I personally helped them a lot (the same miners who again, as in the 90s, are sitting without a salary) - therefore, I can point out several conclusions.

One can, of course, say that the pre-election period somehow heats up the protest agenda, as, for example, says the presidential press secretary Dmitry Peskov. But this factor is not at all decisive. A more important factor seems to me to be the cumulative effect of the crisis - in the economy, in politics, in the social sphere. Having started in the economy, it spread to the minds of the people of Russia. Over time, citizens began to understand that there are difficulties; that these difficulties are not temporary, but permanent, chronic; they began to think if the country was on the right course, does it have a future?

The crisis began in 2009, and then there was a period of some recovery. But even then the growth of incomes, the growth of the economy stopped, many lost their jobs - already at that moment it was noticeable. And in 2014, there was an outbreak of this crisis - in connection with the fall in oil prices and sanctions. Inflation intensified: in 2015, inflation officially rose to almost 15%, while incomes remained the same. Someone had savings, someone did not immediately realize that the situation was not temporary, but permanent. By 2016, this gave rise to a surge of protest for the first time; in 2017, this trend continued. People are coming to a critical point in survival. Discontent accumulates among people, which is expressed in a variety of forms.

The crisis affects small and medium-sized businesses. Entrepreneurs start to go broke, consumer demand is minimal. This looks especially sad in the regions where everyone - both entrepreneurs and workers - is becoming poorer and ruined. Nobody helps small businessmen, which causes discontent in this segment as well. And all this from above is amplified by indignation from the lifestyle of the elite and big business, which still leads the same luxurious life and suffers minimal losses. At the same time, large businessmen begin to withdraw their money from business to the same offshores, which leads to the ruin of enterprises: people are left without wages, the state is without taxes, monotowns without jobs.

The Russian authorities treat the crisis very superficially and carelessly - and thinks that it will dissolve by itself. The authorities are not afraid of the people now. But the main thing - and this can be seen in the words of the same Peskov - from above they look at the protests only from a political point of view: whether this rally is for Putin or against. If a protest does not carry political implications, much less attention is paid to it. For a reaction to take place, it is necessary, apparently, that in different cities - and certainly in Moscow and St. Petersburg - rallies with the words "Down with the government!"

The problem is that the current Russian elites do not know much about the history of protests and revolutions in Russia and do not understand the details, as has happened before. In a country where there is no developed political culture, a political protest immediately arises and cannot. But when economic problems begin and people lose faith in the future due to a feeling of instability, they begin to unite around the problems that worry them: look at examples of equity holders, truckers and farmers. This is the first stage, and it can be compared with the workers' and peasants' movement at the beginning of the last century: the proletarians united around the “workers' question”, and the peasants demanded land - no one at first said that they did not need Nicholas II.

If the state gave feedback and solved the problems that give rise to discontent, nothing further would have happened. But this did not happen and is not happening, so the protest goes into the second stage: people understand that their struggle does not bring results. Some, of course, simply stop protesting, but at the same time, a certain critical mass of people is accumulating, which is not ready to stop protesting - for them it becomes a matter of principle. And then there are political demands. Let us recall the same Labor movement: initially they demanded a solution to social issues, but already in January 1905 they announced the need to limit the absolute monarchy.

CEPR has not yet fixed the final transition to this stage, but we can predict that it will begin soon. If the government does not deal with the problems and does not return a sense of stability to the people (and most likely will not return it), different, so far local, protest groups will begin to solidify, and then leaders will appear who will announce political demands as the main ones. And this will be the point of no return. There is a chance to fix everything, but so far the government is stepping on the same historical rake as Nicholas II, who stubbornly did not see the problems of workers and peasants and was engaged in showdowns with the intelligentsia and liberals. The same rake came in the 70s and 80s, when they dragged out the reforms and missed the moment of loss of loyalty. Now the same thing is being done: the authorities stubbornly brush aside the problems, in fact repeating the thesis of Nicholas II, said by him in 1916 - "My people love me." But ratings are not love, they are a fixation of lack of alternatives, fear that it will be worse.

Nikolay Mironov, specially for "Novaya"

The Center for Economic and Political Reforms (CEPR) was established in 2015 as a platform for the joint development of a reform program that Russia needs today. Experts from different fields are involved in the work of the CEPR - economists, sociologists, political scientists, specialists in certain areas (social policy, housing and communal services development, demography, etc.), as well as representatives of the public.

Head of CEPR


Mironov Nikolay Mikhailovich- a public figure, political scientist.

Was born in 1978 in Leningrad in the family of employees of the Leningrad Polytechnic Institute named after V.I. M.I. Kalinin (current SPbPU). Father is a candidate of physical and mathematical sciences, mother is the head of a laboratory of one of the faculties of the institute.

In 2000, he graduated from the St. Petersburg State University (Faculty of History), in 2005 - from the St. Petersburg Law Institute of the General Prosecutor's Office of the Russian Federation. He was twice the winner of the All-Russian CEC competition for the best scientific work in the field of electoral law.

He worked in the Legislative Assembly of St. Petersburg (2001-2003), the Election Commission of the Leningrad Region (until 2004), also in 2001-2003. worked as a teacher at school.

He moved to Moscow to work at the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation, where he worked until 2006. Then he worked at the All-Russian Congress of Municipalities, at the All-Russian Council of Local Self-Government (until 2012). In 2012-2013. Was Managing Director for Regional Policy at the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs. Since 2015, he has been the head of the Center for Economic and Political Reforms.

In 2016-2017. Together with the office of the Plenipotentiary Representative of the President of the Russian Federation in the Southern Federal District, he ensured the repayment of wage arrears to miners in the city of Gukovo, Rostov Region.

Since 2007 he has been involved in political and social research. In particular, he participated in research projects in Argentina, Brazil, Mexico and European countries, as well as in international election observation missions in Argentina and Ukraine.

Since 2017, he has been working on a project for the socio-economic development of the Irkutsk region. He is the author of the State Plan for Social and Economic Development of the Irkutsk Region for 2019-2023.

CEPR objectives:

  • development and implementation of reforms to help the country out of the crisis;
  • building a political and economic system that will become a locomotive for development, strengthening the state, strengthening its competitiveness in the world market and increasing the well-being of the population;
  • rendering practical public legal and other assistance to social movements, labor collectives and individual citizens, whose social and other rights have been violated.

To achieve this, CEPR:

  • unites the public and experts, organizes discussions on topical issues;
  • attracts new faces to renew political and social structures;
  • prepares bills and public initiatives;
  • conducts research and is engaged in analytical work;
  • contributes to the dissemination of information about the reforms necessary for Russia at the federal level and in the regions.

Biography

Graduated from St. Petersburg State University in 2000 with a degree in history.

In 1997-2004 he worked in the Legislative Assembly of St. Petersburg and in the Election Commission of the Leningrad Region.

In 2004 - 2006 For years he worked in the Legal Department and in the Department for Relations with Political Parties, other public associations, federal state bodies of the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.

2006 - 2007 - Head of a department at the Ministry for the Affairs of Territorial Entities of the Moscow Region.

2007 - 2008 - Deputy Executive Director of the All-Russian Congress of Municipal Formations.

In 2008 - 2012 - Deputy Head of the Central Executive Committee of the All-Russian Council of Local Self-Government.

In 2009-2010 he was a member of the Public Council of Rosprirodnadzor of Russia, chairman of the Commission on Public Initiatives.

Since 2010 - member of the Public Scientific and Methodological Advisory Council of the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.

From 2010 to the present - General Director of LLC Institute of Priority Regional Projects.

Participated in various international election observation missions, incl. in 2007. in Argentina (OAS mission), in 2010 - in Ukraine (OSCE mission).

From 2015 to the present - Head of the Center for Economic and Political Reforms.

Rumors, scandals

Nikolai Mironov in the media is called a subordinate of the communist Valery Rashkin, or his personal political consultant.

In November 2015, Mironov and Rashkin participated in a discussion club at Moskovsky Komsomolets, the topic of discussion is "the new coalition government."

Since 2015, he headed the CEPR, or as it is also called, the new expert platform of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation.

The Fund's Board of Trustees includes a State Duma deputy, film director Vladimir Bortko, State Duma deputy, first secretary of the Moscow City Committee of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation Valery Rashkin, economist, publicist, member of the program committee of the IEF Yuri Boldyrev, Director of CJSC "State Farm named after Lenin" ** Pavel Grudinin , coordinator of the "Blue Buckets" movement ** Petr Shkumatov and also the leader of the "Gukovsk miners" Valery Dyakonov.

CEPR launched on its website a project for the Communist Party of the Russian Federation "Map of Protests". The CEPR also regularly publishes research for the Communist Party of the Russian Federation on acute social topics.

Mironov is a co-founder of the Institute of Priority Regional Projects NP and the General Director of the Institute of Priority Regional Projects LLC. In 2017, this organization received a tender from the government of the Moscow region in the amount of 9 million 175 thousand rubles.

According to the APN website, Mironov participated in the Open Russia project to draft a new constitution for Mikhail Khodorkovsky.

At the same time, you can find on the Internet old articles of praise addressed to the president, which were published before the end of the Olympics in Sochi.

In 2007 - 2011, he gave lectures at educational institutions and research centers in Latin America (Mexico, Argentina).

Blogger Maxim Korobkov In his LiveJournal he drew attention to the fact that on the website of the Center for Economic and Political Reforms, which is actively promoted by the State Duma deputy from the Communist Party of the Russian Federation Valery Rashkin, sex services are advertised.

"The website of the Center for Economic and Political Reforms, which contains an interactive Map of Social and Economic Hot Spots in Russia, advertises sex services, online casinos and drugs. Thus, in the Map section, along with a selection of social problems, site visitors are invited to familiarize themselves." Intimate map of Moscow ", - the blogger notes in his post.

Human impoverishment will continue, while prices and discontent will rise

A repetition of the 1998 financial crisis is now impossible, since then the Russian economy has become noticeably more resilient to external shocks. This statement was made today, on August 16, by the Bank of Russia. However, not everyone adheres to such an optimistic assessment. Why Russians continue to get poorer and when can we expect default - in an interview with "URA.Ru" by the head of the Center for Economic and Political Reforms Nikolai Mironov

- Nikolai, the Bank of Russia today, as best it could, reassured the Russians, but everyone immediately began to say: "If they do so, then there will be a default." So are we to wait for the next financial turmoil or not?

- All the threats that were, remain. Perhaps they are really different than they were in 1998, the economy was then more vulnerable. But a simple comparison does not mean that there are no risks. This is not a black and white picture: they say, everything is black there, but now it is white. We now live at the expense of reserves, but they are depleted, there are not so many of them left ...

- That is, it is not worth saying that the acute phase of the crisis has passed, that everything has stabilized?

- Problems with the economy will continue. The oil situation, on which one can only rely now, is unfavorable. There are no forecasts that oil will rise to $ 70-80 per barrel. And in order to pull out our economy, the rise in oil prices must be significant. No political decisions were made that would lead to the appearance of additional resources in the economy. Such, for example, could be import substitution. We continue to live according to the old model, consuming resources, apparently hoping that in the near future the situation will change for the better, in our favor. But hope is by no means the best way to manage.

- That is, nothing has changed? What is the old model built on?

- Absolutely nothing has changed and is not changing. The model is based on the fact that we sell natural resources abroad, at the expense of these resources we finance government spending and save surplus. Those surpluses that we have set aside are our reserves today.

- We haven’t got any technologies yet?

- Not only did it not appear! Our infrastructure for the creation of these technologies is also falling apart. Scientific institutions are sold as real estate, and scientists receive a paltry salary. Russia is creating something in the defense complex. But the defense industry will not give the economy a breakthrough. Yes, this is not enough!

- You mentioned import substitution. Nikolay, why doesn't it work out with him?

- Because the government and the leadership of state corporations have a very strong raw materials lobby. It simply does not allow reallocation of resources. In order to finance the economy, I mean the non-resource sector, you need to get money from somewhere. Where? They can be redistributed from the commodity sector. Otherwise, build a tax system, borrow more from corporations, leaving less for them, introduce a progressive taxation scale - by the way, it works in many countries of the world, especially where there are super profits. This scale was not invented by the communists. Because when the head of a state corporation receives several million a day, and a teacher - 14 thousand rubles a month, this is not normal. The head of a corporation must pay more taxes, much more! In fact, no one plans to engage in real import substitution, except in words.

- Are there really no results?

- More domestic cheese appeared. Some enterprises have received preferences. But this is not enough. I don't see domestic cars, for example. It's just that very often now gray schemes have begun to be used - we buy the same Western product, only resold. Accordingly, it becomes more expensive for us. Many people ask the question now: why have domestic meat and fish prices almost doubled now? Such is the import substitution.

- By the way, why are prices continuing to rise today? The dollar rate seems to have stabilized ...

- Manufacturers simply could not immediately raise prices. Almost all our industries have an imported component - for example, in the form of technologies, raw materials, equipment. Therefore, when the dollar skyrocketed, producers' profits began to decline, they had to spend more. Plus, we have very high fuel prices. As a result, prices went up gradually. Such a delayed mechanism is needed so that people do not fall into painful shock. I think such agreements were at the government level.

- Against this background, there is an obvious decrease in the income of the population. What will happen next?

- The impoverishment of people will continue. Prices are going up, but wages are not. The average salary in the country is 30 thousand rubles. This figure has been holding for many years. In some regions, even less. The average pension in the country is 12 thousand. And in many regions it is even less. A pension in the amount of 6-8 thousand rubles is not a myth, but a reality.

- And everyone is happy with everything?

- You really can't get used to this. Yes, there are no revolutionary sentiments yet, but the dissatisfaction in the country is very serious. It's just that it has not yet taken on a political character. Although it is a matter of time. Discontent will continue to grow, this is inevitable. Politics, as a rule, always go hand in hand with socio-economic issues. If we take the hierarchy of problems that concern citizens, then, according to all opinion polls, in the first place are the rise in prices, the quality and availability of medicine, housing and communal services. These are the main pain points.

- But there will be no default tomorrow?

- It is unlikely that a default will happen on, say, August 17, 2016. Maybe we will even make it to August 17, 2017. We still have some possibilities for existence. But the default is quite real. It will happen, but later. The risks remain, the default cannot be reversed. If the country cannot fulfill its social obligations, then what can be done here? We have already experienced a devaluation, which has led to certain social consequences, in large cities these consequences are less pronounced, in the regions they are more noticeable. Another devaluation - and the default is ready. What is the difference?