Relatively recently, less than 100 years ago, the birth rate in most European countries, as well as in Russia, was quite high. The European continent differed in the level of economic development from other countries. All this was based on population growth of about 2-3% per year. But modern living conditions, changes in thinking and other circumstances have led to the fact that a demographic crisis has begun throughout the world.

This is a process that requires a decision at the state level. A demographic crisis is a low population growth or its complete absence. This is due to a decrease in the birth rate and an increase in the death rate. However, the demographic crisis can mean not only a decrease in the population, but also its overabundance. In the modern world, the problem of population decline is mainly encountered.

In the case when the birth rate falls for a certain time and does not exceed the death rate, a tendency arises, that is, its reproduction does not occur. The number of women who are of childbearing age is declining.

In this situation, measures should be taken to increase the average number of children per woman who is of childbearing age.

Since ancient times, there have been disputes about the need for population growth. Some scientists are of the opinion that this is unacceptable. As a result of this process, there is a strong migration of the population.

The consequences of the demographic crisis affected everyone and affected the poor and rich, developing and developed countries.

There are several reasons for this situation:

Many agree that the urbanization of the population is to blame. An agrarian society is turning into a more industrial one. People, having moved to the city, stopped giving birth to a large number of children. However, this theory also has opponents who cite Great Britain, Brazil, and Argentina as an example. There, despite earlier urbanization, population growth has remained stable.

The second reason is called some loss - a large increase in property prices, the desire for numerous purchases, feminism, etc. Individually, these reasons are not a driving factor in the demographic crisis. Basically, this is a combination of several circumstances that affect to varying degrees.

The former countries of the USSR found themselves in the worst situation. There, the demographic crisis has reached enormous proportions. Every year the population of these countries decreases by 0.5%.

Demographic is also a problem. In the 1990s, when the country's economy was being remade, it turned out to be at a very low level. This could not but affect the life of the population. Emigration to other countries began. Its dimensions have reached incredible and even catastrophic values. This further harmed the country's economy, the development of science, because there was a leak of intellectuals.

The deterioration of the demographic situation attracted the attention of the country's leadership. A policy concept has been developed and adopted for This is a long-term project up to 2015.

The demographic situation is very important for the full functioning of the state. This is, first of all, strengthening the status of Russia in terms of geographical and political position. Population growth is important for maintaining the integrity of the country and its territories. Demographic stability is essential to national security.

To improve the situation, it is necessary to develop social programs designed to support large and young families. Problems in the field of healthcare, education, culture, etc., also require solutions.

The economically developed countries of the world have entered a phase characterized by a decrease in natural population growth rates. Also, this group of countries can be divided into three subgroups.
The first subgroup includes countries where a rather favorable demographic situation is still preserved, which is characterized by at least average birth rates and natural growth, ensuring an expanded reproduction of the population. (USA, where the average annual population growth was 0.6%; Canada, France, the Netherlands, Norway, Ireland, Switzerland, where the average annual population growth was at the level of 0.3-0.5%. With this rate of population doubling growth in these countries can be expected in 100-200 years).
The second subgroup should include countries in which, in fact, expanded reproduction of the population is no longer ensured. These include mainly European countries, where the total fertility rate has fallen to 1.5. Some of these countries (for example, Poland) still have a minimal excess of births over deaths. Others, of which there are many more, have become countries with zero population growth. These are Austria, Belgium, Spain, Portugal, Denmark, Croatia, Ireland.
The third subgroup includes countries with negative natural population growth, or with its natural decrease (depopulation). The total fertility rate in this group of countries is also extremely low. All of them are in Europe.
The countries of the third entered a period of demographic crisis, which was brought to life by a complex of interrelated reasons. These include a rapid decline in the birth rate, which leads to a decrease in the proportion of young people in the population. Demographers call this phenomenon aging from below. Further, the increase in the average life expectancy of people in an environment of increasing levels of material well-being has also led to a faster increase in the proportion of older people in the population, that is, to aging from above.

Basic demographic processes

Natural population growth
As a result of the sharp decline in the number of births compared to the number of deaths in all developed countries, which began in the 1970s, the overall rate of natural increase of the population also declined. On average, in EU member states, this coefficient fell from 5.7 in 1970 to 1.7 in 2001, and in the rest - from 6.7 in 1970 to 1.6 in 2001, that is, the number of deaths exceeds today the number of births. Among EU member states, Ireland had the highest rate, with a rate of natural increase in 2001 of 7.3 per 1,000 people. This ratio was also high in France, Luxembourg and the Netherlands - 4 per 1000 people.

Net migration
Throughout the 1990s, all countries experienced an annual increase in population due to immigration, which significantly exceeded emigration. In 2001, Ireland, Luxembourg, Portugal and Spain set a record for net immigration of 5 per 1,000 people. On the other hand, the population of candidate countries declined in the 1900s due to outward migration; this is especially noticeable in the countries of Central and Eastern Europe, as well as in the Baltics.

Total population growth
In general, in the 1990s, in the developed countries, the overall population growth was positive, and where there was a decrease in natural increase, this process was replenished by immigration. Ireland and Luxembourg had the highest overall growth rates in 2001, at 11 per 1,000 people. On the other hand, in the 1990s, most of the candidate countries experienced a decline in overall population growth, which, in the case of many countries in Central and Eastern Europe and the Baltics, was exacerbated by population outflows.

Sex and age structure of the population
At present, two main features can be distinguished in the age and sex structure of the population of economically developed countries. First, the number of men between the ages of 25 and 39 exceeds the number of women of the same age, which is a reflection of the pattern of immigration, since the immigrants are able-bodied men of reproductive age. Second, as of 1999, women of childbearing age between 25 and 44 had higher fertility rates than women from developing countries.
Tendencies towards an increase in the number of the elderly population appeared in the 1970s, in the early 1980s they gave way to a decline, and in the mid-1980s they resumed with renewed vigor. Therefore, the proportion of older people (over 65 years old) in the age structure of the population of countries is steadily increasing.

Decline in fertility rates
In all European countries, the birth rate has fallen and is now below replacement level, at 1.5 children per woman. This trend inevitably leads to a natural decline in the population, especially among younger groups. Since the early 1980s, the average age at first marriage for women has gradually increased in most countries. If in 1980 it was 23 years old, then in 1995 it was already 26 years old. The growth was especially noticeable in the Scandinavian countries: in 2001 in Sweden - 30 years, in Denmark - 29 years, in Finland - 28 years. Since the late 1970s, the average age at birth of the first child in European countries has gradually increased: if in the early 1980s it was 25 years old, then in 2000 it was 27 years old.

Population aging in developed countries
The population of developed countries is rapidly aging, as a result, demographic processes threaten to turn into an economic crisis. Over the next three decades, the aging of the population will lead to an annual drop in the growth rate of the world economy, and there will be a labor shortage in the labor market. In developed industrial countries, by 2050, there will be 7 pensioners for every 10 active workers. Recall that in 2000 this ratio was 10 to 4. In Europe, the ratio will fall to 1 to 1, which will unnecessarily burden state budgets and social insurance systems.

Rising immigration to developed countries
In general, in most countries, net immigration is small, but in some countries there is a significant inflow or outflow of the population from time to time. Net migration to more developed countries increased steadily between 1960 and 2000. In 1990-2000, the developed countries of the world received 2.5 million migrants annually. In 2007-2010 net migration to developed countries will be about 2.3 million people per year. In 2007-2050, the migration increase in the population of developed countries will amount to 103 million people, which will cover the natural population decline as a result of the excess of deaths over the number of births.

So, despite the significant cultural, social, political and economic differences between European countries, demographic trends are quite similar. At the same time, there are certain differences in the degree of change: there is either a tendency to reduce the natural increase in the population, or to its natural decline. The decline in natural population growth is due to a number of demographic factors. In general, despite differences in the degree and duration of changes, similar micro-level trends underlie such development:
raising the age of first marriage;
increasing the age at which the first child is born;
increase in divorce rates;
a drop in birth rates below the replacement level of the population;
increase in the number of older people.

World (global) demographic problems affect the interests of all mankind, therefore their settlement is possible only by joint efforts. The concept of "global demographic problems", emphasizing the special significance of population problems, began to be used in the scientific literature in the late 1960s and early 1970s.

Currently, the attention of scientists in many countries is directed to the study of the problem regional differentiation of world population processes and their impact on the global economy. The contradictions between the trends in the demographic development of individual countries increase its instability, increase the gap in the levels of economic development between developed and developing countries.

20th century (especially the second half) is characterized by a significant increase in the population of the Earth. So, if in 1980 it was 4.4 billion people, in 1985 - 4.8, in 1990 - 5.3, in 2000 - 6.1, in 2013 - 7, 1 billion, then by 2025 it may reach more than 8 billion people. Such a high growth in the population of the Earth is determined by the rate of its increase in developing countries. The modern "demographic explosion" in its strength and significance significantly exceeds the similar "explosion" that occurred in Europe in the 19th century.

The sharp increase in population in the developing countries of Africa, Asia, South America is explained by the decrease (with the help of the world community) in mortality and the preservation of high birth rates. Such an increase in the population in these countries complicates the solution of the socio-economic problems facing them, leads to the spread of dangerous diseases, the growth of armed conflicts in them, a decrease in living standards, the transformation of the positive phenomena of migration and urbanization into negative ones, etc.

The negative consequences of rapid population growth necessitate a gradual transition from its spontaneous, uncontrolled growth to the conscious regulation of population reproduction. To solve this problem, joint actions of the entire world community are required and, consequently, the creation of an international mechanism for influencing population processes. However, the main condition for achieving this goal is the socio-economic reorganization of all areas of life of the population of developing countries, the development of regional models of demographic policy.

For the economically developed countries of Europe, North America, Japan and a number of others, other problems are characteristic - a decrease in the population due to low birth rates and accompanied by an aging population.

The global demographic situation requires serious scientific research on such issues as: the permissible limits of the population of the Earth, taking into account natural limits; the likely timing of the cessation of world population growth; possible ways to curb population growth in developing countries; measures aimed at reducing the rate of population decline in economically developed countries.

In the 1960s concept was formulated bullet population growth, according to which by the year 2000 the end of the population explosion in developing countries and the stabilization of the entire population of the Earth were expected. To achieve these goals, universal birth control was proposed. The developers of the concept (for example, D. J. Baugh, D. Meadows, J. Tinbergen) believed that developing countries could pursue a policy of reducing the birth rate even in a backward economy without resolving social issues, developing enlightenment, education and culture.

This concept was sharply criticized by other researchers (K. Clark, P. Kuusi, J. Simon and others). Experience of many

countries showed that without simultaneous economic, social and cultural transformations, a change in the type of population reproduction is impossible.

In economically developed countries in the second half of the XX century. there was a sharp decline in the rate of population growth (in contrast to population explosion in developing countries). This was due to the fact that the compensatory post-war surge in the birth rate was quickly replaced by its fall to a level that did not provide for simple reproduction of the population. The demographic situation in developed countries was gradually turning into a crisis, which was manifested in a reduction in the birth rate, a natural decline in the titular population, a crisis in the family, and so on.

However, the most significant problem of the developed countries has become the aging of the population and all the economic and social difficulties associated with it. The reasons for the aging of the population are primarily a decrease in fertility and mortality and an increase in life expectancy.

The global problems of population include uncontrolled urbanization in developing countries, the crisis of large cities in several developed countries.

In economically developed countries with a high level of urbanization, the growth rate of the proportion of the urban population can be characterized as insignificant. These countries are currently characterized by the processes of suburbanization (outstripping growth of the population of the suburban zone) and the formation of new forms of urban settlement - megacities (the merger of many cities into one huge one), urban agglomerations (a cluster of settlements).

In developing countries, the quantitative aspects of the process of urbanization, its external forms, are leading. The growth rate of the urban population in these countries with enormous human resources is higher than in industrialized countries.

On the one hand, in developing countries, urbanization contributes to the progress of society. However, in most of them, urbanization is far ahead of economic development, and the influx of rural population exceeds the needs of cities in the labor force.

Urbanization in developing countries, with a lack of many resources, is accompanied by a number of negative phenomena: overcrowding, environmental pollution, lack of drinking water, favorable soil for the spread of epidemics, etc.

The most important consequence of urbanization is the increase in the territorial mobility of the population, i.e. migration.

Migration of the population is a complex and controversial social process associated with the level of economic development, the socio-economic attractiveness of certain territories, the peculiarities and uneven distribution of productive forces in different parts of the world.

On the one hand, population migration contributes to the formation of the size and age composition of the population of industrialized countries through migration exchange of population with developing countries, has a certain positive effect on the balance of the labor market, changes the economic and social situation of the newly arrived population, and contributes to the involvement of the labor force of developing countries in modern industrial culture, education of economic, technical and scientific personnel for their growing economy.

On the other hand, a massive uncontrolled influx of migrants can exacerbate the problem of employment of the population, causing unemployment, put strong pressure on the social infrastructure of host countries, thereby reducing the standard of living of the indigenous population. In addition, mass spontaneous migration can cause a sharp unevenness in the distribution of the population across the territory. In a number of cases, this leads to bursts of social and political activity of the population directed against migrants, to the tightening of the migration legislation of the receiving countries.

The above negative consequences of uncontrolled migration refer it to the number of global population problems that affect the development of demographic processes.

To assist in solving the demographic problems of the world in 1969, a special United Nations Fund for Population Activities (UNFPA) was organized. He developed the UN program in the field of population, carried out a number of studies in the field of fertility, supported international and national educational institutions for the training of specialists in demography, etc.

The Foundation has organized and held a number of World Population Conferences. The difference between these conferences and those previously held (1954 - in Rome, 1965 - in Belgrade) was that government delegations took part in them, while at previous conferences, population experts spoke only on their own behalf.

The first conference held by UNFPA was held in Bucharest (1974). It adopted the World Population Action Plan for 20 years.

The Second International Conference on Population took place in Mexico City (1984). It summed up the results of the implementation of the World Plan over the past 10 years and adopted the Declaration on Population and Development.

The Third World Conference on Population and Development was held in Cairo (1994). Here the Program of Action in the field of population and development for the next 20 years was adopted. The Cairo Conference once again showed that the solution of the world's demographic problems is possible with the combined efforts of the entire world community.

Subsequently, the United Nations Commission on Population and Development repeatedly referred to the assessment and progress in the implementation of the recommendations of the International Conference on Population and Development.

In January 2004, the European Population Forum was held in Geneva on the theme "Demographic problems

and policy responses." The Forum was organized by the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE) and UNFPA. The Forum assessed progress in the implementation of the Program of Action of the International Conference on Population and Development held in Cairo.

The urgency and necessity of holding a forum in Europe was due to the fact that it became the only continent where the population was declining during 1999-2005, and then the rate of natural increase stabilized at zero. A further decline in the population and labor force could hinder Europe's sustainable development process.

• See: Demographic statistics / ed. M. V. Karmanova. Ch. eleven.

In the 70-90s, a demographic crisis emerged that affected economically developed countries and countries with economies in transition. This crisis consists in a sharp decrease in population growth rates in both groups of countries and even in natural decline (in Russia, Ukraine, Hungary, Germany, Sweden), as well as in demographic aging, reduction or stabilization of labor resources.

Demographic aging (when the proportion of the population older than 60 years is more than 2% of its total population) is a natural, historically determined process that has irreversible consequences. At the same time, this process poses serious socio-economic problems for society - primarily an increase in the economic burden on the employed population.

Due to the fact that the noted countries (including Russia) are at the stage of demographic development characteristic of all industrial countries, a large natural population growth is impossible at the present stage.

In Russia, a decrease in mortality and an increase in the birth rate, to the extent that they are realistically possible in our country under the most favorable development of events, are capable of somewhat reducing the natural decline compared to the situation in the 1990s. (but ns overcome it). The only source of population growth, or at least maintaining its non-decreasing numbers, can only be immigration. As for demographic aging, it is expected that in Russia in 2000-2015. a “demographic favorable window” will open. During this period, the share of the population of retirement age will practically not change, and at the same time the share of the population of working age will grow significantly. This period must be used to reduce the mortality of the population, especially of younger and middle ages (this will somewhat slow down the old age), as well as to reform the social protection system and significantly increase the efficiency of the economy.

The demographic crisis in the modern world *

V.P. MAKSAKOVSKY

The economically developed countries of the world, as already noted, have long passed the second phase of the demographic transition and entered its third phase, which is characterized by a decrease in natural population growth. Until recently, there were almost no very significant differences in this respect between them. Recently, however, this group of countries has also become quite differentiated, and now this group can also be divided into three subgroups.

Table 1
European countries with negative natural population growth

IN first subgroup includes countries where a rather favorable demographic situation is still preserved, which is characterized by at least average birth rates and natural growth, ensuring an expanded reproduction of the population. The United States can serve as an example of a country of this kind, where the reproduction formula (birth rate - death rate = natural increase) at the end of the 90s remained at the level of 15‰ - 9‰ = 6‰. Accordingly, the average annual population growth was 0.6%. This subgroup includes Canada, France, the Netherlands, Norway, Ireland, Switzerland, where the average annual population growth was at least 0.3-0.5%. At this rate of growth, doubling of the population in these countries can be expected in 100-200 years, or even more (in Switzerland - in 250 years).

Co. second subgroup it is necessary to include countries in which, in fact, expanded reproduction of the population is no longer ensured. These include mainly European countries, where the total fertility rate fell to 1.5 in the mid-1990s. Some of these countries (for example, Poland) still have a minimal excess of births over deaths. Others, of which there are many more, have become countries with zero population growth. These are Austria, Belgium, Spain, Portugal, Denmark, Croatia, Ireland.

Finally, third subgroup unites countries with negative natural growth population, or, more simply, with its natural decline (depopulation). The total fertility rate in this group of countries is also extremely low. The number of such countries with "minus" population growth only in 1990-2000. increased from 3 to 15. All of them are located in Europe (Table 1).

It will not be a mistake to assert that the countries of the third (and in fact the second) subgroup have already entered the demographic crisis, which was brought to life by a complex of interrelated causes. First of all, they include a rapid, and sometimes downright landslide decline in the birth rate, which leads to a decrease in the proportion of young people in the population. Demographers call this phenomenon aging from below. Further, the increase in the average life expectancy of people in conditions of an increasing level of material well-being also led to a faster than expected increase in the proportion of older (“non-reproducing”) people in the population, that is, as they say, to aging top.

table 2
Population dynamics and its natural movement in Russia

However, it would be wrong to try to explain the onset of the crisis only by demographic reasons. Its occurrence was also influenced by many socio-economic, psychological, medical-social, moral factors that caused, in particular, such a phenomenon as family crisis. The average family size in the countries of the second and third subgroups has recently decreased to 2.2-3 people. Yes, and it has become much less stable - with an increase in the number of divorces, the widespread practice of cohabitation without marriage, a sharp increase in the number of illegitimate children.

If at the beginning of the 60s the number of divorces per 1000 marriages in the countries of foreign Europe ranged from 100 to 200, then at the end of the 90s it increased to 200-300. Even more egregious data on illegitimate children, the proportion of which has increased by 5-10 times over the same time. In Great Britain and France, for example, the proportion of illegitimate children exceeds 30%. It is even higher in Denmark - 40%. But the "absolute champions" in this regard were and remain Sweden, Norway and Iceland with a figure of over 50%.

All these causes and factors in the countries listed in Table. 2 are combined in different ways. So, in Germany and Italy, apparently, the influence of demographic factors really prevails. In the post-socialist countries of Central and Eastern Europe (Czech Republic, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, etc.), the fact that in the 1990s they had to go through a rather painful stage of reforming the political system and transitioning from a command-planned to a market economy had an effect. The same applies to Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia. And in the CIS member countries (Russia, Ukraine, Belarus), the natural deterioration of the demographic situation coincided with the deep political and socio-economic crisis of the 1990s.

As for Russia, in the twentieth century. with the demographic situation, it can be said that she was not lucky. The first phase of the demographic transition ended in it by the beginning of the 20th century, but a real population explosion did not follow. Moreover, over the course of half a century, Russia experienced three demographic crises: during the First World War and the Civil War, during the years of collectivization of the countryside and severe famine, and, finally, during the Great Patriotic War. In the 60-80s, the demographic situation in the country as a whole stabilized. However, in the 1990s, a new, and especially strong, demographic crisis erupted (Table 2).

From the data in Table. 2 it follows that in the 1970s and early 1980s the demographic situation in Russia was relatively favorable. Thus, in 1983, 2.5 million children were born in the RSFSR. Then the beginning of perestroika and the fight against alcohol abuse had a beneficial effect on the birth rate and natural population growth. However, with the onset of the socio-economic crisis of the 1990s, the demographic situation deteriorated sharply. Since 1992, Russia has experienced an absolute population decline. It can be added that in the RSFSR in 1988 there were 2 more children per woman (in the USSR as a whole - 2.2 children), and by the end of the 90s, the fertility of women in the country decreased to 1.24 children, while for sustained population growth needs more than two. According to available forecasts, the population of Russia will continue to decrease in the first decades of the 21st century, when the small generation born in the 1990s will enter adulthood, and the largest generation born in the 1950s will leave the working age. As a result, by 2015 the number of inhabitants in Russia may decrease to 138 million people.

Apparently, both demographic extremes - the explosion and the crisis - have both their advantages and disadvantages. Therefore, some scientists put forward the concept of a demographic optimum, which, with a single interpretation for different regions and countries, can be quantitatively different.

* Essay from the forthcoming book "The Geographical Picture of the World". - Note. ed.