Macroeconomic instability: cyclicality, unemployment, inflation. Macroeconomic instability: economic cycles, unemployment, inflation - Economic theory (Vassilyeva E.V.) Macroeconomic instability inflation

As a result of studying the material of the chapter, the student must: know

essence, causes, forms and types of unemployment and inflation;
factors affecting the unemployment rate and inflation rates;
social and economic consequences of inflation and unemployment;
the essence of Okun's law, the "rule of magnitude 70";
the main theoretical provisions of macroeconomic models of the labor market;
the nature of the relationship between inflation and unemployment; be able to
calculate the rate of inflation and unemployment;
determine the economic losses from unemployment;
analyze and interpret domestic and foreign statistics on unemployment and inflation;
identify trends in unemployment and inflation; own
modern methods of calculation and analysis of socio-economic indicators characterizing inflation and unemployment.

Inflation

Inflation as an economic category, its mechanisms, types and impact on economic growth

As an economic phenomenon, inflation has existed for a long time. The term "inflation" (lat. inflation- swelling) began to be used in the middle of the XIX century.

In the modern sense inflation is a complex multifactorial socio-economic phenomenon generated by disproportions in reproduction in various areas of the market economy.

Traditionally, inflation is defined as an overflow of circulation channels with money supply in excess of the needs of trade, causing depreciation of the monetary unit, i.e. decrease in its purchasing power. It should be noted that not every price increase is an indicator of inflation. Prices may rise due to changes in labor productivity, cyclical and seasonal fluctuations, structural shifts in the reproduction system, market monopolization, state regulation of the economy, etc.

The opposite of inflation is deflation, or a general fall in the price level.

Deflation - artificial withdrawal from circulation of part of the excess money supply, which is carried out by governments in order to reduce inflation by increasing taxes, raising the discount rate, selling government securities, strengthening foreign trade and foreign exchange regulation, etc.

In addition to inflation and deflation, the concept of disinflation, or a decrease in the level of inflation, has appeared in the economic literature of recent years.

Disinflation- a mild form of deflation in order to limit inflation without increasing the unemployment rate.

Disinflationary measures typically include limiting consumer spending by raising interest rates, limiting credit purchase agreements, and imposing price controls on scarce goods.

When studying inflation, it is customary to consider the following range of problems: measuring inflation and its types, causes, development mechanisms, as well as its impact on the economy and its relationship with other macroeconomic processes. Inflation is measured on the basis of inflation indicators, which are designed to quantify inflationary processes. One widely used measure is price indices (see subsection 2.6.1).

In addition to price indices, the rate of inflation is used to measure inflation. The inflation rate is calculated using the formula

Where P- price growth rate (inflation rate); R t, R C) - the average price level, respectively, in the current and base (previous) periods.

If we subtract 100% from the value of τ, we get the rate of growth of inflation, which is often called the rate of inflation. Thus, when they say that the inflation rate for the year was 6%, this means that prices in the current period have increased by 1.06 times.

Sometimes the “rule of 70” is used to determine macroeconomic parameters. It allows you to quickly calculate the number of years (months) required for the price level to double. To do this, divide the number 70 by the annual (monthly) inflation rate. For example, at an annual inflation rate of 5%, prices would double in about 14 years.

Depending on the rate, the following types of inflation are distinguished: creeping, galloping and hyperinflation. creeping inflation is characterized by an increase in prices by no more than 3-5% per year. A similar rate of inflation is observed in many Western countries. Creeping inflation is not accompanied by crisis shocks. It has become a familiar element of the market economy. It is believed that a relatively low, "three percent" dark inflation can be used to stimulate economic growth. galloping inflation, unlike creeping inflation, is difficult to control. The average annual price increase is from 10 to 50% (or slightly higher). This type of inflation is typical for countries with transformational economies or crisis situations. Under such conditions, economic growth stops.

The greatest danger is hyperinflation, the criteria of which were introduced into scientific circulation by the American economist F. Kagan: hyperinflation begins with the beginning of the month during which prices for the first time increased by more than 50%, and ends with the month in which prices do not reach this value, plus one more year. The peculiarity of hyperinflation is that it becomes practically uncontrollable, the usual functional relationships and the usual price control levers do not work. The printing press is running at full capacity, frenzied speculation is developing. Production is disorganized. To stop or slow down hyperinflation, one has to resort to emergency measures.

Depending on the method of pricing, open and suppressed inflation are distinguished. open inflation occurs in market economies and is an increase in the general price level. repressed inflation occurs in countries with directive economies. This type of inflation is expressed in the emergence of deficits, queues, speculation in various goods, etc.

According to the sphere of distribution, local and global inflation are distinguished. Local inflation occurs when prices rise within the borders of one country. World covers a group of countries or the entire global economy. It can often provoke imported inflation, i.e. inflation within the country under the influence of external economic factors.

According to the degree of balance in price growth, balanced and unbalanced inflation are distinguished. At balanced inflation, the prices of various commodity groups relative to each other remain unchanged. In this case, according to the annual price increase, the interest rate increases, which is equivalent to an economic situation with stable prices. At unbalanced inflation, the prices of different goods change relative to each other in different proportions.

According to the degree of expectation of price growth, inflation can be expected and unexpected. Expected inflation can be predicted for any period, or "planned", by the government. unexpected inflation is characterized by a sudden jump in prices (inflationary shock), which negatively affects the money circulation and the taxation system. In such a situation, if inflationary expectations already existed in the economy, a sudden jump in prices could provoke further inflationary expectations, which would spur prices up.

However, if a sudden rise in prices occurs in an economy where inflationary expectations have not yet gained momentum, the behavior of the population and its reaction to rising prices may be different: consumers will save more and put less money on the market in the form of effective demand. As a result, the economy returns to a state of equilibrium again. This phenomenon is called the "Pigou effect" (the effect of real cash balances). However, the Pigou effect only works in conditions of flexible prices and interest rates and the absence of inflationary expectations.

To understand the mechanism of inflation, we can refer to its two types: demand-pull inflation, in which the balance of supply and demand is disturbed by demand, and supply inflation (cost-push inflation), in which the imbalance of supply and demand occurs due to an increase in production costs.

Demand inflation arises when an excess money supply appears in the hands of the population due to wage growth, an increase in demand for capital-forming investments during an economic upswing, an increase in government spending, etc. Demand inflation (Fig. 6.1, A) arises under the influence of an increase in aggregate demand (a shift in the aggregate demand curve AS right up) provided that the growth of aggregate supply remains unchanged or lags behind the growth of aggregate demand. This trend occurs when the country's economy approaches full employment under the influence of the emerging labor shortage, which in turn causes wage growth to be greater than the growth of the national product. In this case, rising prices provoke outstripping consumption, as a result of which an inflationary spiral is possible.

Rice. 6.1. Demand inflation (A) and cost inflation (b)

The inflationary spiral is formed as follows: first, a new level of wages is established (as a result of the revision of the tariff agreement between employees and employers) in the corresponding segment of the labor market. As a result, there is a change in the general level of wages across the national economy. If this process is not balanced by counteracting factors (for example, an increase in labor productivity), then an increase in unit costs leads to a reduction in production. Then, with increasing demand, a reduction in supply will lead to an increase in prices. Rising prices, in turn, give new impetus to negotiations between employees and employers to increase wages. Thus, the situation repeats itself on a new round of the wage-price spiral.

Supply inflation(costs) occurs when prices for resources used in the production process increase due to an increase in wages, an increase in the cost of raw materials and energy carriers, monopoly and oligopolistic pricing practices, and the financial policy of the state (see Fig. 6.1, b). In such a situation, unit costs rise, which reduces profits and stimulates a reduction in output, which can lead to higher prices. Unlike demand-pull inflation, cost-push inflation, according to some economists, has some preconditions for self-repayment. The increase in prices as a result of rising costs is accompanied by an increase in competition, the search for funds allocated for the rationalization of production, and the reduction of production and transaction costs.

Cost-push inflation occurs under the influence of a contraction in aggregate supply (a shift in the aggregate supply curve AD upwards to the left) due to an increase in the average cost of production. An increase in average costs can be caused by a transition to the use of more expensive energy resources, a depreciation of the national currency, a crop failure, etc.

In practice, it can be difficult to distinguish one type of inflation from another: they often interact closely, so wage growth, for example, can look like both demand-pull inflation and cost-push inflation.

In addition to the types of inflation already considered, stagflation and structural inflation occur in the modern economy.

stagflation is a combination of inflationary processes with a simultaneous decline in production or stagnation, and structural inflation

combines elements of demand-pull inflation and cost-push inflation.

Structural inflation is based on processes associated with changes in the structure of demand.

1. Economic cycles and their structure.

2. Types of crises and types of economic cycles. Modern features of economic fluctuations

3. Unemployment. Okun's law.

4. Inflation, its types and measurement. Relationship between inflation and unemployment.

5. Stabilization programs.

1. Economic cycles and their structure. Cyclical indicators

One of the key features of a market economy is its cyclicality, i.e. periodic fluctuations in economic activity, expressed in a more or less regular repetition of recessions and upsurges in production.

It is known that declines in production were sporadically detected in individual countries and regions of the world long before the emergence of a market economy system. They arose mainly as a result of non-economic factors (natural, political, demographic, social), such as droughts, floods, earthquakes, wars, epidemics and revolutions.

Such emergencies often turned into large-scale economic devastation, the elimination of which required years and even decades, it is obvious that to this day the economic life of society (with any type of its organization) is not immune from the negative impact of all these factors.

However, over the past two centuries, it has developed and continues to develop in various forms: economic cyclicality as a special regularity and principle of the functioning of the market system economic topics.

Thus, the specifics of a market economy is the cyclical nature of its development. Cyclicity is recurring changes, movement from one state of macroeconomic equilibrium to another. The economy in its development, as it were, pulsates: periods of growth are replaced by recessions or even crises, then the rise begins again. Therefore, in a long period of time, the dynamics will be displayed as a wavy line, where each wave corresponds to a full cycle of economic development.

business cycle called the length of time between two identical states of the economy. The economic cycle reflects the unevenness in the development of the economy, and is also the cause and effect of economic development.

Economists identify 4 phases of cycles : rise, crisis, stagnation, revival.

Economic growth - characterized by an increase in net investment in the production of resources and consumer goods, an increase in the price of securities, a reduction in unemployment, an increase in incomes and savings of the population and business. This causes an increase in solvency, an increase in aggregate demand over aggregate supply, which leads to an increase in the general level of prices for both commodities and resources. Firms seek to expand the supply through new capital investments, which causes an increase in the demand for credit and leads to an increase in interest rates.

Crisis of overproduction - concerns the production of consumer goods and consists in the excess of their aggregate supply over aggregate demand. This leads to a decrease in the profits of companies, as a result of which they cannot pay part of the orders for the purchase of resources. As a consequence, firms that produce inputs also face the hurdles associated with a sales crisis. Enterprises that have accepted loans for production based on profit from sales are insolvent and are trying to get new loans, but not to expand economic activity, but to pay off old loans and prevent bankruptcy. This situation makes credit more expensive and causes a series of bankruptcies, including among banks, as depositors begin to withdraw their deposits.

Stagnation - stagnation in the economy, production, trade, preceding the recession, accompanying the recession.

Stagnation or depression -begins when aggregate supply falls to the level of reduced aggregate demand. Mass bankruptcy stops, no further deterioration is observed. A significant part of the production capacity is not operating, the unemployment of labor resources reaches a large scale. Only those firms survive that, in the conditions of the preliminary recovery, managed to increase their technological level, ensured cost reduction, as well as those that managed to avoid excessive credit indebtedness. They can profitably sell products at reduced prices, especially since the prices for resources are acceptable in case of stagnation and underutilization of capacities.

revival - when enterprises that have remained at the expense of their own and borrowed funds renew production. Their technical re-equipment creates additional demand for means of production and increases the number of jobs in the industries that produce them. Accordingly, unemployment decreases and the solvency of the population increases, the demand for consumer goods expands and their output increases. Aggregate demand is gradually growing, there is a revival of the economy compared to the stagnation phase. The recovery develops into an economic recovery of a new cycle, when the scale of economic activity from the main indicators exceeds their pre-crisis values.

The material basis of cycles is the mass replacement of the active part of fixed capital. Also, the reasons include changes in agriculture and are due to demographic processes.

IN VP rise

recovery crisis

Figure 3.1 - Phases of the economic cycle

The crisis of overproduction eliminates inefficient production and economically forcibly pushes social production into the renewal of technological potential. The economic cycle is a certain spiral of progressive movement of the technological potential of the economic complex, to which every economic entity must adapt, which seeks to practically withstand the competition for consumer money.

During economic cycle there is a change in various indicators inherent in one or another of its phases.

In this regard, the following indicators are distinguished:

1. Procyclical- they grow in the upswing phase and decrease in the downswing phase. These include the velocity of circulation of money, the utilization of production capacities, and the general level of prices.

2. countercyclical Decrease during upswing and increase during downswings. This is the unemployment rate, the number of bankruptcies.

3. Acyclic- their change is not connected with the phases of the economic cycle. First of all, it is the volume of exports.

There are also a number of indicators that can coincide with changes in economic activity, or lead or lag it.

Leading- reach their maximum or minimum value before reaching the rise or fall in the economy. These include the number of newly created enterprises, changes in stocks, changes in the money supply.

Late- reach their maximum after reaching the rise or fall. These include the level of interest rates of commercial banks, unit costs for wages, spending on new plants and equipment.

Matching- change simultaneously with changes in economic activity. These include the unemployment rate, personal income, central bank interest rates.

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Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation

Federal State Budgetary Educational Institution of Higher Professional Education

"Novgorod State University named after Yaroslav the Wise"

Institute of economics and management

Department of Economic Theory

Coursework on the module

"Macroeconomics"

Macroeconomic instability: unemployment

Supervisor:

Makarevich A. N.

Sycheva O. V.

INTRODUCTION

2.1 Types and forms of unemployment

2.2 Causes of unemployment

CONCLUSION

BIBLIOGRAPHY

INTRODUCTION

Every science has its object of knowledge. This fully applies to economics. A characteristic feature of the latter is that it is one of the oldest sciences. The origins of economic science go back centuries, to where the cradle of world civilization was born - to the countries of the Ancient East of the 5th-3rd centuries. BC. Later, economic thought was developed in ancient Greece and ancient Rome. Aristotle introduced the term "economy" (from Gr. Oikonomia - household management), from which came later - "economy". In the earlier Middle Ages, Christianity declared simple labor to be a holy deed, and the most important principle began to be affirmed: who does not work, he does not eat.

As a science, economics arose in the 16th-17th centuries. Its first theoretical direction was mercantilism, which saw the substance of the wealth of society and the individual in money, and reduced money to gold. In the 17th century a new name for economic science appeared - political economy, (the interaction of economics and politics), which lasted more than three centuries. A new direction to this science was given by the physiocrats (A. Turgot, F. Quesnay, and others), who argued that the source of wealth is not exchange, but agricultural labor. The founder of classical political economy was the Scottish economist Adam Smith (1723-1790), who published his famous book Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations in 1776. His concept is based on the idea of "non-equalitarian equality", which gave decisive importance to the division of labor and, as a result, laid the foundations of the labor theory of value and the market economy as a whole (macroeconomics). A. Smith's teaching was further developed in the works of the German philosopher and economist Karl Marx (1818-1883), who created the theory of scientific socialism in his multi-volume work Capital.

Modern economics today has received a more common name - economic theory, and in Anglo-American literature - "economics". The term "economics", which was first introduced by the English economist Alfred Marshall (1842-1924) in his book "Principles of Economics", refers to the analytical science of using the limited resources of the family, enterprise and society as a whole for the production of various goods, their distribution and exchange between members of society for the purpose of consumption, i.e. in order to meet human needs. It is A. Marshall who is considered the "ancestor" of microanalysis, microeconomics - a branch of economic science that studies and analyzes the activities of individual economic entities and the system of decisions they make.

The Great Depression of 1929-1933 returned the world community to the consideration of the functioning of the national economy as a whole, from the standpoint of macroeconomics. There is a new understanding of the possibilities of a market economy, it became clear: it is necessary to introduce a corrective, controlling function of the state, government, the concept of "economic policy" arises. Economic policy - "... a set of measures aimed at streamlining the course of economic processes, influencing them or directly predetermining their course" - Hirsch. The fundamental task is to ensure a general balance, i.e. balance economic and social.

It should be noted that macroeconomic disequilibrium is a normal, common and even necessary phenomenon, since economic processes always develop with certain fluctuations and are implemented according to indicators: supply and demand, price movements, unemployment, etc. This paper will consider macroeconomic indicators of economic theory, namely economic cycles, unemployment, inflation, their prerequisites, consequences, relationships.

1. ECONOMIC INSTABILITY: KEY POINTS

macroeconomic instability unemployment

1.1 The concept and manifestations of macroeconomic instability

One of the most important reflections of macroeconomic instability is unemployment. In a market economy, there is always a certain number of people who are unemployed. However, not every unemployed person is considered unemployed. In accordance with the methodology of the International Labor Organization, persons aged 16 and over are recognized as unemployed, who in the period under review: did not have a job (profitable occupation); were actively looking for work; were ready to start working.

Macroeconomic instability is, first of all, fluctuations in economic activity (economic cycles), the emergence of unemployment, underutilization of production capacities, inflation, the state budget deficit, and the foreign trade balance deficit. It is characteristic of a market economy. Macroeconomic instability in many areas reduces the efficiency of the economy.

Unemployment is a social phenomenon involving the lack of work for people who make up the economically active population.

Unemployment cost:

Lost output - deviation of actual GDP from potential as a result of incomplete use of the total labor force (the higher the unemployment rate, the greater the backlog of GDP);

Reducing the revenue side of the federal budget as a result of a decrease in tax revenues and a decrease in revenue from the sale of goods;

Direct losses in personal disposable income and lower living standards of the unemployed and their families;

Growth in society's costs of protecting workers from losses caused by unemployment: the payment of benefits, the implementation of programs to stimulate employment growth, professional retraining and employment of the unemployed, etc.

In a market economy, there is a tendency towards economic instability, which is expressed in its cyclical development, unemployment, inflationary price growth. Unemployment means not being able to find a job.

There are three main causes of unemployment: job loss (layoff); voluntary resignation from work; first appearance on the labor market

Thus, unemployment occurs when part of the active population cannot find work, becomes a reserve army of labor. Unemployment increases during economic crises and subsequent depressions as a result of a sharp reduction in the demand for labor. Like any socio-economic phenomenon, unemployment has regular and random features, essential and superficial characteristics, positive and negative sides. Their intensity depends on the scale, level, regional specificity, form of unemployment. The essence of inflation lies in the fact that the national currency depreciates in relation to goods, services and foreign currencies that maintain the stability of their purchasing power. Nowadays, technological progress does not stand still. Products and services are constantly being improved. In this regard, their cost increases, and as a result, the price increases. This shows that the roots of inflation lie in the sphere of production, primarily high-tech products, and are due to their quality.

1.2 Cyclical economic development as a manifestation of macroeconomic instability

Any form of matter movement, including economic, is characterized by instability, which manifests itself in the fact that changes in any system object accumulate gradually and the system perceives them calmly, since the vibrations generated by these changes do not exceed the power of the system's stabilizing mechanisms. As soon as the dominance of stabilizing factors is broken, the bonds that kept the system in a calm state are destroyed, the system is indignant, its fluctuations become tangible. This state characterizes the system as unstable. The frequency of oscillations that violate the stability of the system depends both on the state of the system itself and on the strength of the causes that caused these oscillations.

The economy, like any other system, develops unevenly, in waves. This form of movement is largely explained by the law of diminishing marginal productivity of all factors (resources) of production. For example, in order for the land to give the best results from each hectare, fundamental changes in the technical (technological) basis are necessary. Only then will it make sense to make new investments. Within the framework of the available technology, the increase in the efficiency of investments always has a limit, which can be overcome by scientific and technical progress and higher qualification of workers. The use of innovations in scientific and technical progress requires the accumulation of capital. Their introduction into production causes at first a rapid increase in the marginal utility of factors of production, then a slowdown in this growth, and, finally, a decrease in it. This is how the economy goes up and down. If changes in the technological basis of infrastructure sectors occur over long periods of time (structures, bridges, roads, power lines, etc. have a long service life), then we are talking about long waves. If we talk about machines, machines, equipment, the period of operation of which is much shorter (up to 10 years), they are updated faster. This causes average cycles. Thus, it becomes obvious that the foundations of wavelike (cyclic) development are laid in the very technological basis of production. But this does not exhaust the causes of cyclical fluctuations.

The problem of detecting the periodicity of fluctuations in the economy and the reasons for it did not leave indifferent any of the leading economists of the 19th-20th centuries.

Theories of the XIX--XX centuries.	Causes of cyclic fluctuations
Theories of social production	The impossibility of selling some goods depends on the insufficient volume of production of goods in other industries; Violation of proportionality in social production.	D. Ricardo
Exchange theories	Speculative transactions in the commodity and money markets	M. Evans, K. Juglyar, M. Wirth
Distribution theories	Poverty breeds insufficient demand and crises. The cause of poverty is the limited resources and the ability of people to multiply immoderately	T. Malthus
External (external) theories	natural phenomena; Changing the political and social structure; Discovery of new lands, resources, gold deposits; Changes in population growth rates; Scientific and technical discoveries and innovations; Psychology (pessimistic and optimistic expectations)	Almost all scientists agree E. Hansen et al., A. Pigou et al. I. Schumpeter J.M. Keynes
Interval (internal) theories	Overaccumulation of fixed capital. Expansion and contraction of bank credit. Disproportions between the movement of savings and investments in branches of subdivision I, as well as between the organization of production within an individual enterprise or syndic-ga and the disorganization of the entire national production	F. Hayek, L. Mises et al. N. Huotri et al. M.I. Tugan-Baranovsky

Thus, we have considered in the most general form the existing theories of cyclical fluctuations of the 19th - the first half of the 20th centuries. Scientific interest in models of cyclic fluctuations has been revived since the second half of the 20th century. At the beginning of the XXI century. this interest has intensified. We study a variety of factors that force the economic system to fluctuate cyclically: different reactions in time of aggregate demand and aggregate supply to changes in the price level; different propensity to save entrepreneurs and employees; changes in the magnitude of autonomous demand, etc. These models are the object of study of the course "Macroeconomics".

2. UNEMPLOYMENT AS A FORM OF MACROECONOMIC INSTABILITY

2.1 Types and forms of unemployment

"Unemployment as such, whether secured or flooded with private or public subsidies, humiliates a person and makes him miserable."

Ivan Ilyin

A socio-economic phenomenon in which those who want to work cannot find work at the usual wage rate, i.e. part of the working population is not employed in the production of goods.

The entire population of the country is divided into two categories: 1) the economically active population, including the employed and the unemployed; 2) the inactive population, consisting of children, pensioners, students, as well as people who do not want to work (housewives, vagrants, loafers, etc.). The percentage of unemployed in the entire economically active population is called the unemployment rate. It is defined as follows:

where u is the unemployment rate; U - the number of unemployed; L is the total labor force (employed plus unemployed).

According to the form of manifestation, unemployment is divided into open and hidden. Open unemployment occurs when an employee is officially dismissed with a corresponding loss of his status as an employee. With hidden unemployment, people do not formally quit, but are transferred to part-time work, go on forced leave, work without pay, etc.

There are three main types of unemployment:

frictional unemployment

If a person is given the freedom to choose the type of activity and place of work, at any given moment some workers find themselves in a position "between jobs". Some voluntarily change jobs. Others are looking for a new job due to being laid off. Still others temporarily lose seasonal jobs (for example, in the construction industry due to bad weather or in the automotive industry due to model changes). And there is a category of workers, especially young people who are looking for work for the first time. When all these people find a job or return to their old job after being temporarily laid off, other "seekers" of work and temporarily laid off workers replace them in the "general unemployed fund". Therefore, although specific people who are left without work for one reason or another replace each other from month to month, this type of unemployment remains.

Economists use the term frictional unemployment to refer to workers who are looking for a job or who are waiting to get a job in the near future. The definition of "frictional" accurately reflects the essence of the phenomenon: the labor market functions clumsily, with a creak, not bringing the number of jobs and jobs into line.

Frictional unemployment is considered inevitable and to some extent desirable. Why desirable? Because many workers who voluntarily find themselves "between jobs" move from low-paid, low-productivity jobs to higher-paying, more productive jobs. This means higher incomes for workers and a more rational distribution of labor resources, and hence a greater real national product.

Structural unemployment.

Frictional unemployment quietly moves into the second category, which is called structural unemployment. Economists use the term "structural" to mean "composite". Over time, important changes occur in the structure of consumer demand and in technology, which, in turn, change the structure of the overall demand for labor. Due to such changes, the demand for some types of professions is reduced or even stops. The demand for other professions, including new ones that did not exist before, is increasing. Unemployment arises due to the fact that the labor force reacts slowly and its structure does not fully correspond to the new structure of jobs. The result is that some workers do not have skills that can be quickly sold, their skills and experience have become obsolete and unnecessary due to changes in technology and the nature of consumer demand. In addition, the geographical distribution of jobs is constantly changing. This is evidenced by the migration in industry from the "snow belt" to the "sun belt" over the past decades.

Examples: 1. Many years ago, highly skilled glassblowers lost their jobs due to the invention of bottle-making machines. 2. More recently, in the southern states, unskilled and insufficiently educated Negroes have been ousted from agriculture as a result of its mechanization. Many lost their jobs due to lack of qualifications. 3. An American shoemaker, left without a job due to competition from imported products, cannot become, for example, a computer programmer without undergoing serious retraining, and perhaps without changing his place of residence.

The difference between frictional and structural unemployment is quite vague. The essential difference is that the "frictional" unemployed have skills that they can sell, while the "structural" unemployed cannot immediately get a job without retraining, additional training, and even a change of residence; frictional unemployment is more short-term, while structural unemployment is more long-term and therefore considered more severe.

Cyclical unemployment

By cyclical unemployment, we mean unemployment caused by a recession, that is, that phase of the economic cycle, which is characterized by an inadequacy of general, or aggregate, spending. When aggregate demand for goods and services decreases, employment falls and unemployment rises. For this reason, cyclical unemployment is sometimes referred to as demand-deficit unemployment. For example, in the United States, during the recession of 1982. the unemployment rate rose to 9.7%. At the height of the Great Depression in 1933. cyclical unemployment has reached about 25%. Bankruptcies of enterprises in various fields of economic activity are becoming massive, and during this period, many millions of people, quite unexpectedly and suddenly for them, become unemployed. The problem is exacerbated by the fact that in conditions of cyclical unemployment, neither reorientation nor training for some new qualification helps people. A change of residence does not always save, because the crisis can cover the entire national economy and even reach the global level.

Cyclical unemployment is also dangerous because, in addition to social disasters, it also brings obvious losses in real GDP. The well-known American economist Arthur Oken (1928-1979) drew attention to this. He formulated the law that a country loses 2 to 3% of its actual GDP relative to its potential GDP when the actual unemployment rate rises by 1% over its natural rate. In economic literature, this law is known as Okun's law:

(Y - Y*) / Y* = -(U - Un),

where Y - actual GDP, Y* - potential GDP, U - actual unemployment rate, Un - natural unemployment rate, (in absolute terms) - empirical coefficient of GDP sensitivity to changes in cyclical unemployment (Oaken coefficient).

Suppose the natural rate of unemployment is 5% and its actual rate is 8%. Let's say Okun's ratio is -2.5. Then the gap between actual GDP and potential GDP will be (8%-5%) x -2.5 = -7.5%: the country "has not received" 7.5% of potential GDP.

Now consider the concept of "full employment" of the population and start with what we call the "employment rate of the population", namely, the percentage of people employed in the adult population not on social security, in shelters, nursing homes, etc.

Full employment does not mean the absolute absence of unemployment. Economists consider frictional and structural unemployment absolutely inevitable: therefore, the unemployment rate at full employment is equal to the sum of frictional and structural unemployment rates. In other words, the full-time unemployment rate is reached when cyclical unemployment is zero. The unemployment rate at full employment is also called the natural rate of unemployment. The real volume of the national product, which is related to the natural rate of unemployment, is called the production potential of the economy. This is the real volume of output that the economy is able to produce with the "full use" of labor resources.

Full, or natural, unemployment occurs when labor markets are balanced, that is, when the number of job seekers is equal to the number of available jobs. The natural rate of unemployment is to some extent a positive phenomenon. After all, the "frictional" unemployed need time to find appropriate vacancies. "Structural" unemployed people also need time to acquire skills or move to another place when it is necessary to get a job. If the number of job seekers exceeds the available vacancies, then labor markets are not balanced; at the same time, there is a shortage of aggregate demand and cyclical unemployment. On the other hand, with excess aggregate demand, there is a "scarcity" of labor, that is, the number of available jobs exceeds the number of workers looking for work. In such a situation, the actual unemployment rate is below the natural rate. The unusually "tense" situation in the labor markets is also connected with inflation.

The concept of "natural rate of unemployment" requires clarification in two aspects.

First, this term does not mean that the economy always operates at a natural rate of unemployment and thus realizes its productive potential. The unemployment rate often exceeds the natural rate. On the other hand, in rare cases, the economy may experience a level of unemployment that is below the natural rate. For example, during the Second World War, when the natural rate was on the order of 3-4%, the needs of war production led to an almost unlimited demand for labor. Overtime work, as well as part-time work, has become commonplace. Moreover, the government did not allow workers in "essential" industries to quit, artificially reducing frictional unemployment. The actual unemployment rate during the entire period from 1943 to 1945 was less than 2%, and in 1944 fell to 1.2%. The economy exceeded its production capacity, but exerted significant inflationary pressure on production.

Secondly, the natural rate of unemployment in itself is not necessarily constant, it is subject to revision due to institutional changes (changes in the laws and customs of society). For example, in the 1960s, many believed that this inevitable minimum of frictional and structural unemployment was 4% of the labor force. In other words, it was recognized that full employment is achieved when 96% of the labor force is employed. And now economists believe that the natural rate of unemployment is about 5-6%.

Why is the natural rate of unemployment higher today than it was in the 1960s? First, the demographic composition of the labor force has changed. In particular, women and young workers, who traditionally have a high unemployment rate, have become a relatively more important component of the labor force. Second, there have been institutional changes. For example, the unemployment compensation program has been expanded both in terms of the number of workers it covers and the amount of benefits. This is important because unemployment compensation, by reducing its impact on the economy, allows the unemployed to more easily seek work and thereby increases frictional unemployment and overall unemployment.

Controversy over the determination of the unemployment rate at full employment is exacerbated by the fact that in practice it is difficult to establish the actual unemployment rate. The entire population is divided into three large groups. The first includes persons under the age of 16, as well as persons in specialized institutions - i.e. individuals who are not considered potential components of the labor force. The second group consists of adults who potentially have the opportunity to work, but for some reason do not work and are not looking for work. The third group is the labor force, this group includes persons who can and want to work. The labor force is considered to be made up of employed and unemployed people who are actively looking for work. The unemployment rate is the percentage of the unemployed part of the labor force.

Unemployment rate \u003d Number of unemployed x 100% / Working force

The Labor Department's statistics office is trying to figure out the number of employed and unemployed by conducting nationwide monthly sample surveys of some 60,000 families.

An accurate estimate of the unemployment rate is complicated by the following factors:

Part-time employment. In official statistics, all part-time workers are included in the category of full-time employees. Considering them fully employed, official statistics underestimate the unemployment rate.

Workers who have lost hope of getting a job. By not including workers who have lost hope of getting a job as unemployed, official statistics underestimate the unemployment rate.

Fake information. Unemployment rates can be inflated when some unemployed people claim they are looking for work, although this is not true, and the shadow economy also contributes to inflating the official unemployment rate.

Conclusion: Although the unemployment rate is one of the most important indicators of the economic situation of the country, it cannot be considered an infallible barometer of the health of our economy.

employment in developed countries. The unemployment rate in different countries varies widely, from 3-4% in Japan to 20% in Spain. If we take the absolute value of employment in developed countries, then it increased, but unemployment increased until the mid-1990s. The greatest increase in unemployment was observed in the countries of Western Europe. The rise in unemployment was caused, firstly, by an increase in the supply of labor due to an increase in the able-bodied population. Which, in turn, was caused by immigration and the replenishment of the labor force by women. Back in the 60s and 70s, the US and Canada had the highest unemployment rates among developed countries. At that time, unemployment in Western Europe was almost half the unemployment rate in the United States. But already in the 1990s, unemployment in Europe exceeded it by 1/6. This position is confirmed by the data from Table 2.3.

Unemployment in developed countries, 1967 - 1985

		Australia		Germany

What is the reason for the increase in the unemployment rate in Western Europe at such a rapid pace? The fact is that, unlike the United States, where the creation of new jobs was due to an increase in low-paid jobs in the service sector, in Europe jobs were not created at a rate corresponding to the growth in labor supply. The diagram shown in Fig. 2.11 is based on the data from Table. 2.3 and clearly shows the dynamics of changes in the unemployment rate in developed countries.

The difference in the level of unemployment in different countries is primarily explained by the different levels of natural unemployment and the difference in labor legislation in different countries. In addition, socio-cultural and historical factors play an important role. For example, low unemployment in Japan is explained by the fact that firms that hire a male worker are prohibited from firing them before retirement age, women laid off from enterprises, for the most part, no longer look for work, that is, they are excluded from the labor force. In Sweden, the law obliges to pay large compensations to laid-off workers, so it is most often unprofitable to fire an employee there. Germany had low unemployment until 1974, because immigrants could only get jobs if there were vacancies. However, as a result of rising oil prices in 1973, economic growth slowed down, and the unemployment rate increased accordingly. Germany is currently suffering from high unemployment. One of the main reasons for this phenomenon, in my opinion, is the excessive degree of socialization of the German economy. Large unemployment benefits, in particular, contribute to the development of dependency sentiment in German society. In the UK, high unemployment is due to low labor mobility, which in turn is an obvious result of British conservatism.

Use of labor resources in developing countries. In developing countries in the early 90s, there were 0.5 billion unemployed. The bulk of the population is concentrated in rural areas, for this reason the level of open unemployment is quite low. This is primarily due to the fact that rural residents are not registered as unemployed. More than half of the rural population works for themselves, in order to simply survive.

When assessing urban employment, the term informal sector is used, which includes self-employed or self-employed workers. According to the latest estimates in developing countries, 25-50% of workers are employed in the informal sector. Together with high hidden unemployment among the adult population in these countries, there is the exploitation of child labor. About 120 million children work to survive, but at the same time their health is irreparably harmed.

Unemployment in transition economies. As noted above, under the communist regime, there was no official unemployment in the countries of the former socialist camp. However, there was a hidden form of unemployment, which turned into an open form during the transition to a market economy. As a result of the privatization of private property and the collapse of industry in the countries of the former USSR (now these are countries with economies in transition), a high rate of unemployment has been established. Suffice it to say that the number of unemployed in Eastern European countries increased from 1.6 million in 1990 to 6.3 million in 1993. The problem of unemployment in countries with economies in transition will be discussed in more detail in the section “Stabilization Policy of the State in Russia".

2.2 Causes of unemployment

A very important indicator in macroeconomics is employment. Employment refers to the number of adults in the working-age population who have a job. But not all able-bodied population has a job, there are also unemployed people. Unemployment is defined as the size of the adult working-age population who is unemployed and actively looking for one. The total number of employed and unemployed is the labor force.

Various indicators are used to calculate unemployment, but the generally accepted one, including in the International Labor Organization, is the unemployment rate. It is defined as the ratio of the total number of unemployed to the labor force, expressed as a percentage.

Unemployment is a social phenomenon involving the lack of work for people who make up the economically active population.

Unemployment is one of the main social problems of a market society, which is due to economic reasons. In conditions of unemployment, firstly, public resources are underused and, secondly, part of the population has very low incomes. Economically, unemployment can be considered a natural phenomenon, since it is associated with the normal operation of the market mechanism: an excess (as well as a shortage) of labor leads to the development of progressive and efficient activities and to the disappearance of bankrupt enterprises. But from a social point of view, unemployment is undoubtedly evil: it leads to an aggravation of social problems and social tension, including an increase in crime. The loss of a job is perceived by a person as a mental trauma, which is accompanied by severe stress. A person without work, without benefiting society, lives on state aid, which allows him to maintain his existence at a minimum level. Therefore, unemployment is a complex and serious problem even for economically developed countries.

Unemployment characterizes such a state of society, when a part of people who are able and willing to work for hire cannot find a job in their specialty or find a job at all.

What are the causes of unemployment? It is difficult to give unambiguous answers to these questions. The causes of unemployment can be hidden both in the level of economic development and in the personal attitude of every citizen of the country to the need to go to work. Recently, when the human workforce is increasingly being replaced by computer technology, the number of unemployed people is constantly increasing. For example, printing houses have significantly reduced their staff, as now texts are typed using computer equipment. As a result, unemployment in this area has increased several times. The causes of unemployment are also associated with temporary changes in the level of production of goods in various sectors of the economy, as well as economic stagnations, falls and depressions. The determination of wages also plays a significant role. In the case when the minimum size of labor rises, production costs increase significantly, therefore, there is a need to reduce the labor force. As mentioned above, the causes of unemployment can be directly related to the person. For example, for health reasons, he belongs to the labor force, but he deliberately does not want to work, preferring a calm and measured life without permanent means of subsistence. It is not always possible to find a job, and for the reason that the options considered have low wages, require certain skills that a person does not currently own.

At present, the percentage of unemployment in relation to the active working population is not very high. It varies every year depending on the state of the economy and other indicators. Unemployment statistics show that in recent years there has been no significant increase in the number of unemployed. Thus, as of June 2011, 1,487,575 people were registered with the employment services of the Russian Federation. The total number of unemployed is about 5.5 million people, in percentage - 7.2% of the total working population of the country. If compared with Europe, then this figure is higher there and amounts to 9.9%. Most of the unemployed are observed in small towns and rural areas. In large cities, however, this problem is not acute. The number of unemployed across the country is also heterogeneous. Thus, the fewest unemployed are in Moscow and St. Petersburg, but the largest number is in the Caucasus and Tuva.

Unemployment is not a good indicator of an economy. It is a clear proof that a certain number of people, for one reason or another, cannot get a job, and, accordingly, their income becomes very low. In recent years, the Russian government has been trying to at least slightly solve the problem of providing the population with jobs, thereby reducing unemployment rates. For example, in the near future we plan to create all conditions for vocational training of workers in connection with the modernization of production, support for the unemployed in starting their own business, introducing disabled people, parents with many children and parents raising disabled children to work.

2.3 Socio-economic consequences of unemployment

In the modern economy, the economic losses from mass unemployment are much greater than the losses associated, for example, with the monopolization of markets. In general, the negative consequences of the existence of unemployment can be divided into economic and social. Consider the economic costs of unemployment:

1) underutilization of the labor force, and hence underproduction of the gross domestic product;

2) the lag of actually produced GDP from potential GDP, which could be created in the absence of cyclical unemployment, i.e., in conditions of full employment;

3) uneven distribution of the costs of unemployment among different groups: higher unemployment among unskilled workers, among young people, national minorities and women.

The most serious consequence of unemployment is the decline in the volume of GDP produced below the potential level. The well-known researcher of macroeconomic problems A. Oken mathematically expressed the relationship between the unemployment rate and the unreleased volume of production. This dependence is called Okun's law: each percentage of unemployment above the natural rate leads to a 2.5% lag between actual GDP and potential GDP. If we assume that the unemployment rate in the economy is 8%, while its natural rate is 6%, then the GDP loss will be 5%.

Social costs of unemployment:

1. Losing a job is a great personal tragedy. Psychological research shows that being fired is usually just as detrimental to the psyche as the death of a close friend.

2. Dequalification of people who have lost their jobs, loss of a sense of self-respect, people cannot prove themselves and professionally fulfill themselves.

The decline of moral principles in society. Unemployment leads to inactivity and can lead to the degradation of a person.

4. The higher the unemployment rate, the higher the rate of divorce, suicide, cardiovascular disease.

5. Social and political unrest. Massive unemployment can lead to rapid, sometimes violent, social and political change. The consequence of unemployment can be a social explosion if its size exceeds the permissible level.

Serious negative socio-economic consequences of unemployment increase the responsibility of the state for providing employment for the able-bodied population. These tasks are linked to the goal of achieving full employment in the economy. Achieving full employment is associated with ensuring a balance between the number of able-bodied population and the number of jobs needed for it. Implementing the employment policy, the state implements the following programs:

To stimulate employment growth and increase the number of jobs in the public sector;

Aimed at training, retraining, advanced training of the unemployed;

Facilitating the recruitment of labor, involving the stimulation of employers to create new jobs;

On social unemployment insurance, providing for the provision of social guarantees and compensations to unemployed and laid-off workers.

The implementation of these programs presupposes specific actions of the state: reduction of the legally established length of working hours during periods of mass unemployment; creation of new jobs and organization of public works (for example, in the field of infrastructure - for the construction of roads); restricting the supply of labor by restricting the entry of foreign workers into the country, prohibiting child labor, etc. An important role in the implementation of employment promotion programs is played by labor exchanges, which are mostly state institutions that act as an intermediary between employers (enterprises and firms ), on the one hand, and potential employees, on the other. These institutions keep records of the unemployed, promote their employment, study supply and demand in the labor market, assist those who wish to change employment, etc.

Thus, the socio-economic consequences of unemployment are determined, first of all, by the very essence of the phenomenon. Unemployment, as already mentioned, lies in the fact that a certain part of the economically active population, having the need and desire to work, cannot exercise their right to work due to circumstances beyond the control of a person. This is an objective factor in the economic activity of the state, an element of social reproduction, a complex socio-economic phenomenon. Unemployment has a significant and ambiguous impact on the socio-economic situation in the country. It seems appropriate to study separately the economic and social consequences of unemployment.

CONCLUSION

Unemployment occurs when part of the active population cannot find work, becomes a reserve army of labor. Unemployment increases during economic crises and subsequent depressions as a result of a sharp reduction in the demand for labor. Like any socio-economic phenomenon, unemployment has regular and random features, essential and superficial characteristics, positive and negative sides. Their intensity depends on the scale, level, regional specificity, form of unemployment. There are three main causes of unemployment: job loss (layoff); voluntary resignation from work; first entry into the labor market. The main types of unemployment are: involuntary and voluntary unemployment, registered unemployment, marginal unemployment, unstable unemployment, cyclical unemployment, seasonal unemployment, structural unemployment, technological unemployment, institutional unemployment, frictional unemployment. The socio-economic consequences of unemployment are determined, first of all, by the very essence of the phenomenon. Unemployment has a significant and ambiguous impact on the socio-economic situation in the country. It seems appropriate to study separately the economic and social consequences of unemployment.

BIBLIOGRAPHY

1. Law of the Russian Federation "On employment in the Russian Federation" No. 287-F3 dated December 25, 2008

2. Abramova M. A., Aleksandrova L. S. Economic theory. - M.: Jurisprudence, 2006. - 465c.

3. Abrosin V. T. Macroeconomics. _ M.: Higher education, 2007. - 456c.

4. Andreev P.V. Working question. - M.: Infa, 2009. - 637s.

5. Textbook on the basics of economic theory (edited by V.D. Kamaev). M., 1994

6. Economy. Textbook (edited by A.S. Bulatov). M., 1997

· 7.Economic theory (political economy). Tutorial. M., 1997 (Financial Academy under the Government of the Russian Federation).

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Ural socio-economic institute

academy of labor and social relations

Department of Economic Theory and Statistics

course work

according to "Economic theory"

macroeconomic instability.unemployment and inflation

Completed: 1st year student

FSV-101 group, correspondence department

specialty "Finance and credit"

Supervisor:

Chelyabinsk

Introduction enenie

1. Cyclicity as a form of macroeconomic instability

1.1 The concept of a cycle

1.2 Economic growth curve

1.3 Typology of cycles

1.4 Reasons for cyclicity

1.5 The impact of cycles on the production of goods and industries

2. Unemployment as a form of manifestation of macroeconomic instability in the phase of decline in production

2.1 Definition of unemployment

2.2 Forms (types) of unemployment and measures to smooth them

2.3 The concept of the natural rate of unemployment

2.4 Causes of unemployment

2.5 Consequences of unemployment

2.6 Unemployment in Russia

3. inflation as a form of manifestation of macroeconomic instability in the phase of production growth

3.1 Essence of inflation

3.2 Measuring inflation

3.3 Types of inflation

3.4 Causes of inflation

3.5 Mechanism of inflation

3.6 Consequences of inflation

3.7 Anti-inflation policy

3.8 Inflation in Russia

4. Relationship between inflation and unemployment

Conclusion

Bibliography

Introduction

Macroeconomics is a branch of economic science that studies the behavior of the economy as a whole in terms of ensuring conditions for sustainable economic growth, full employment of resources, minimizing inflation and balance of payments.

Economic growth is the result of relatively stable factors such as population growth and technological progress. The dynamics of these factors in the long term determines the dynamics of potential output. In the short run, however, the economy deviates from this main trajectory of uniform forward movement. There is macroeconomic instability here, i.e. violations of the macroeconomic balance, which are manifested in unemployment, inflation, cyclical economic development, sustainable deficits in the balance of payments.

Macroeconomic instability in many areas reduces the efficiency of the economy. For example, unemployment means a shortfall in production, and an increase in unemployment by 1% means a reduction in economic growth by 2-3%.

Unemployment is a socio-economic situation in which part of the active, able-bodied population cannot find work that these people are able to perform. Unemployment is due to the excess of the number of people who want to find a job over the number of available jobs that correspond to the profile and qualifications of applicants for these places. According to most economists, unemployment is the central problem of advanced economies.

Inflation is an overflow of the circulation channels of the money supply in excess of the needs of trade, which causes the depreciation of the monetary unit and an increase in prices. Inflation has significant economic and social consequences for all business entities. As inflation deepens, it turns into a serious obstacle to reproduction, exacerbates economic and social tension in society.

Thus, the problem of macroeconomic instability is one of the most urgent problems of the emerging Russian economy.

The purpose of the course work: deepening and consolidating knowledge on the topic.

Objectives of the work: to understand the concepts of cyclicality, unemployment, inflation, their causes, types, consequences and relationships.

1. Cyclicity as a form of macroeconomic instability

1.1 The concept of a cycle

The market economy of all countries of the world is characterized by cyclical development - after growth, there is always a recession. Governments of all states strive to achieve permanent economic growth, but so far no one has succeeded.

Practical studies confirm that in any market economy there are oscillatory processes, undulating movements. At the same time, fluctuations in market activity in different countries vary quite a lot in terms of regularity, duration, and causes.

Over a period of several years (or even decades), economic growth and the recovery of business activity are replaced by a decrease in macroeconomic growth indicators. There is an economic recession, supply and demand are reduced, entrepreneurial activity fades.

The term "economic cycle" (business cycle, business cycle, economic cycle) is the time interval between two qualitatively identical states of the economic situation (Fig. 1)

The economic conjuncture is formed by the direction and degree of change in the set of indicators characterizing the equilibrium development of the economy.

Rice. 1 Cycle graphic

The business cycle can also be defined as successive ups and downs in economic activity over a period of several years.

The economic cycle is a common feature in almost all areas of economic life and for all countries with a market economy.

1.2 Economic growth curve

In the modern theory of the economic cycle, it is customary to single out two- and four-phase models of the economic cycle.

The two-phase model has upward (rise, expansion) and downward (recession, recession) phases, as well as high and low turning points of the cycle. Cycle duration is defined as the transition between two adjacent high or low turning points.

The four-phase model contains phases of expansion, ending with a boom, followed by a crisis (recession), turning into a depression, and a subsequent revival. The revival, in turn, ends with a rise after a certain time. Let's look at these phases.

1) Crisis (recession, recession), i.e. a sharp decline in business activity is manifested primarily in the overproduction of goods, sometimes the direct destruction of part of useful products, a reduction in loans, an increase in loan interest, and a fall in prices. Unemployment is growing, however, with some delay in comparison with the fall in GNP.

In a crisis, enterprises with large capital and large financial capabilities retain the possibility of making a profit by reducing production costs. Medium and small enterprises, especially those that do not have high-performance equipment and technology, cannot stabilize the deteriorating economic situation and often go bankrupt. The ruin of technically weak enterprises has its advantages for industry as a whole, since it leads to an increase in the general level of productive forces.

The consequence of an increase in the general level of labor productivity is a decrease in the cost of goods and, as a result, a weakening of the fall in the rate of profit.

In a recession, there is a general pursuit of money. Financial obligations are violated, the anchor chain of credit is broken.

Actually, the recession usually does not last long, the crisis looks longer when it is combined with the subsequent period of depression.

2) The phase of depression (stagnation) can be very long. Production is no longer declining, but it is not growing either. Unemployment remains high, prices are halting, interest rates are falling to a minimum, inventories are stabilizing, but trade is sluggish.

Depression is a phase (more or less long - from six months to 3 years) of adapting economic life to new conditions and needs, a phase of finding a new balance.

At the level of microeconomics, depression is presented as a picture of uncertainty, disorderly actions. Particularly affected are commercial intermediaries, stock agents, to whom the general situation seems worse than it really is.

So, the decline has stopped, but the upward trend has not yet been outlined. Production is carried out on a narrow base. Entrepreneur's confidence in the market situation is restored with difficulty, he looks around, not yet risking investing significant funds in business, although prices and economic conditions are stabilizing. Gradually, “points of growth” appear in the national economy and a transition to revival takes place.

3) Recovery (recovery phase): enterprises start investing in equipment and buildings, prices (for raw materials, goods and services, stocks), production levels, employment are rising, there is a slight increase in consumer demand, and loan interest is growing. Enterprises that have adapted to the new market conditions increase the output of goods, the rate of profit and the level of wages rise. The revival covers, first of all, the industries that supply the means of production. Encouraged by the success of others, new businesses are created and pure growth begins.

4) Rise (boom): the acceleration of economic development is manifested in waves of innovation, the emergence of a mass of new goods and new enterprises, in the rapid growth of capital investments, stock prices and other securities, interest rates, price levels and wages. Everything is produced and traded at a profit. The GNP level exceeds the highest pre-crisis point, employment and commodity demand are growing. The volume of production again goes beyond effective demand, the market is overflowing with unsold goods, and the tension of bank balance sheets is growing.

So, I looked at the classic business cycle. Now let's consider a two-phase curve of economic growth: here the main phases are recession and recovery, during which there is a deviation from the average indicators of economic dynamics (Fig. 2). Real GNP deviates from the nominal - these fluctuations are fixed by the GNP deflator. Fluctuations in actual output around potential GNP are characterized by the indicator

gap GNP= , where

Y - actual production volume, Y* - potential production volume.

Potential GNP (or economic potential) - the volume of production at full employment of resources.

Full employment of resources implies maintaining the share of unloaded production capacities at the level of 10-20% of their total volume and the natural unemployment rate of 5.5-6.5% of the total labor force. These figures may vary from country to country, but in all cases full employment of resources precludes their 100% utilization.

The levels of employment, unemployment, inflation, the interest rate, the exchange rate and the money supply also change cyclically. However, the main indicators of the phase of the cycle are usually the levels of employment, unemployment and output, since the dynamics of inflation, interest rates and exchange rates can be different depending on the factors that caused the recession.

The decline in employment and output, caused by a reduction in aggregate spending, is often accompanied by a decrease in the average price level and inflation. Conversely, a decline caused by a contraction in aggregate supply is often accompanied by an increase in the price level and inflation. In both cases, the dynamics of interest rates will be determined by the policy of the Central Bank to regulate the money supply, which, in turn, will cause corresponding changes in the level of the exchange rate.

Diagnostics of the phase of the economic cycle is one of the most difficult tasks of macroeconomic forecasting, the solution of which is associated with the need to improve the collection and processing of statistical information, the construction of complex indices (like the index of leading indicators), as well as the development of economic and mathematical modeling methods. In a transitional economy, including the Russian one, these problems are of particular relevance due to the lack of an adequate statistical database and the necessary experience in using macroeconomic management tools.

1. 3 Typology of cycles

All cycles in reality are not similar to each other, each has its own specific features, interweaving. At the same time, each crisis arises as if unexpectedly and is caused by some exceptional circumstances. In the period between crises, unrest in the form of partial, small and intermediate recessions is possible, which gave grounds to talk about different types of economic crises.

More than 1380 types of cyclicity are known to modern social science. The economy operates mainly with four of them: J. Kitchin, K. Zhuglar cycles, S. Kuznets cycles, N.D. Kondratiev.

Kitchin cycles (short cycles, inventory cycles). In a work published in 1926, Kitchin focused his attention on the study of short waves with a length of 2 to 4 years based on the study of financial accounts and sales prices in the movement of inventories.

Juglar cycles (7 - 12 years). These cycles have other names: "business cycle", "industrial cycle", "medium cycle", "big cycle". The first industrial crisis broke out in England in 1825, when machine production occupied a dominant position in metallurgy, engineering and other leading industries. The crisis of 1847 - 1848, which broke out in the USA and a number of European countries, was in essence the first world industrial crisis. It was followed by the crises of 1857 and 1866. The most profound was the crisis of 1873. In the nineteenth century. The industrial cycle was 10 - 12 years, in the twentieth century. its duration was reduced to 7 - 9 years or less. The crisis of 1929-1933 was distinguished by a particularly deep and prolonged decline in production. - "The Great Depression".

After World War II, the most devastating industrial crisis was that of the mid-1970s.

The cycle of 7 - 12 years was named after K. Jouglar for his great contribution to the study of the nature of industrial fluctuations in France, Great Britain and the USA on the basis of a fundamental analysis of fluctuations in interest rates and prices.

Blacksmith cycles (16 - 25 years). In the 1930s, studies of the so-called "building cycle" appeared in the United States. J. Righolman, V. Newman and some other analysts built the first statistical indices of the total annual volume of housing construction and found in them long intervals of rapid growth and deep recessions or stagnation following each other. Then the term "construction cycle" appeared, which defines these twenty-year fluctuations. In 1946, S. Kuznets in his work "National Income" came to the conclusion that indicators of national income, consumer spending, gross investment in industrial equipment, as well as in buildings and structures, exhibit interrelated twenty-year fluctuations. At the same time, he noted that in construction these vibrations have the largest relative amplitude.

After the publication of Kuznets' work, the term "building cycle" practically ceased to be used, giving way to the term "long swings" (long swings) in contrast to Kondratiev's "long waves". In 1955, in recognition of the merits of the American researcher, it was decided to call the "construction cycle" the "Blacksmith's cycle".

Kondratiev cycles (40 - 60 years). The first attempts in the field of creating an economic theory of long waves were made at the dawn of the twentieth century. And Gelfand (Parvus), J. Van Gelderen and S. De Wolf. However, the greatest contribution was made by the Russian scientist N.D. Kondratiev, who published several fundamental works in this field. He presented the results of his research on the dynamics of commodity price indices, interest rates, rents, wages, the production of key products, and so on. for a number of developed countries from 1770 to 1926

Kondratiev associated the beginning of the “big” rise with the massive introduction of new technologies into production, with the involvement of new countries in the world economy, with changes in the volume of gold production.

Kondratiev associated the rise of the first large cycle with the industrial revolution in England, the second - with the development of railway transport, the third - with the introduction of electricity, telephone and radio, the fourth - with the automotive industry. Modern researchers associate the fifth cycle with the development of electronics and genetic engineering.

As already noted, at present there is no single theory of the cycle. Moreover, many economists deny the existence of a strictly periodic cyclical development of the economy in principle. As a rule, they include mainly supporters of the neoclassical and monetary schools. These economists prefer not to talk about cyclicality (the cycle implies a more or less constant periodicity), but about market fluctuations caused by a combination of arbitrary economic factors.

1.4 Reasons for cyclicity

Despite the abundance of works on the problem of cyclicity, there is still no single concept about the reason for the existence of this phenomenon.

The question of the reasons for the cyclicity of modern national economies, depending on the types of cyclicality, is interpreted by different economic schools with an unequal degree of equivalence. So, in assessing the causes of "long waves" and structural crises, the approaches of various economists are currently largely. The causes of the "classical", i.e., industrial (economic) cycles are defined in different ways.

This explanation of the business cycle is purely monetary. The cycle is considered most widely and consistently as a purely monetary phenomenon in the works of Hawtrey. He argued that the study of cash flow is the only reason for the change in economic activity, the alternation of periods of prosperity and depression, buoyant and sluggish trade. When the flow of money (or the demand for goods, expressed in money) increases, then trade becomes more lively, production expands, prices rise. When the cash flow decreases, trade weakens, production decreases, prices fall.

The demand for goods, expressed in money terms, is directly determined by consumer costs or consumer costs. This means that such a state as general depression is caused by monetary factors. An exception can only be those cases where non-monetary factors lead to a drop in consumer costs. The amount of consumer spending changes due to changes in the amount of money. A sudden reduction in quantity, that is, outright deflation, has a depressing effect on economic activity. So, according to this theory, the process of contraction or recession occurs as follows. Reducing the amount of money entails an inevitable reduction in demand. Producers who have made products based on ordinary demand are faced with the fact that they cannot sell these products at the expected prices. Inventories will begin to accumulate, losses will arise, production will decline, unemployment will spread, and the process of reducing wages and other incomes will inevitably begin. The process of reducing business activity is cumulative. When prices fall, wholesalers tend to assume that it will continue in the future. In line with these assumptions, they seek to reduce inventory and reduce or eliminate orders to manufacturers. But the expenditures of the consumers, as well as the incomes, are diminishing, the demand is waning, and stocks, in spite of all the efforts of the merchants to reduce them, are piling up; credit continues to decline. Thus, the movement occurs in a spiral.

The upswing phase of the business cycle is a copy of the down spiral of depression, but the spiral in this case will be upward. The revival of business activity is caused by the expansion of credit and lasts as long as this expansion continues. The reason for the expansion of credit is that banks facilitate the conditions for granting loans to their customers, that is, they reduce the discount rate. If the rate of interest has fallen, this induces wholesalers to increase their inventory. Merchants increase orders to manufacturers of goods. But this does not entail such an increase in inventories as during a recession, but rather, on the contrary, leads to their reduction, since the expansion of production entails an increase in income and costs for consumers. This means an increase in demand for goods, and this, in turn, leads to an inevitable reduction in stocks in trade. The result will be new orders, further increases in consumer income, spending and demand, and further decreases in inventories. Thus, a cumulative expansion of productive activity is established, supported by a continuous expansion of credit. The expansion of business activity, once started, continues due to its own driving forces, and further encouragement from banks is no longer required. On the contrary, banks must now be cautious enough not to let the process of expansion of business activity get out of control and degenerate into violent inflation.

Another view of the problem: state support and state regulation - public procurement, differentiated taxation of various industries and sectors of the economy, manipulation of subsidies and interest rates. Using budgetary funds, the state can support economic growth, prolong the phases of recovery and recovery; raise interest rates on loans during the boom.

There are also psychological explanations for cycles that link business activity with mood swings, transitions from mass optimism to pessimism. Psychological theory occupied a large place in the works of Pigou. By psychological causes, Pigou understands "changes in human thoughts that occur in addition to those changes in expectations that are caused by changes in the active factors on which the judgment is based."

Pigou bases his analysis on the role that cost-return expectations play in industry. With the onset of each of the phases of the cycle, a corresponding change in people's expectations occurs simultaneously, and from cycle to cycle these changes are the same. With the introduction of such an element as “expectations” or “calculations for the future”, the problem of the uncertainty of these expectations arises. As a rule, the forecast of future events cannot be absolutely correct, and the more events are distant in time, the less accurate the forecast and the greater the likelihood of violations. And since every economic decision is part of an economic plan that extends into a more or less distant future, there is an element of uncertainty in every economic activity. In this regard, it is necessary to introduce such terms as optimism and pessimism. Psychological theories mean something more than that people are more optimistic during an upswing and more pessimistic during a downturn, only that people invest more freely during an upswing and do so reluctantly during a downswing. Optimism and pessimism are considered in these theories as factors that tend to cause or increase the growth or fall of investments. It should be noted that it is impossible to predict with what force entrepreneurs will react to changes in the economy, or to what extent they will increase or decrease the amount of investments.

Every economic phenomenon has its psychological aspect. Psychological factors are put forward as additional to other economic factors. A number of economists attribute the economic cycle to external causes: the occurrence of sunspots that lead to crop failures and a general economic downturn; wars, revolutions and other political upheavals; the development of new territories and the migration of the population associated with this, fluctuations in the population of the globe; powerful breakthroughs in technology that make it possible to radically change the structure of social production, and other reasons. The explanation of economic fluctuations reduces the matter to technical innovations and improvement, to the involvement in the exploitation of new resources and the development of new territories. This point of view is inherent in such economists as Wixel, Spitthoff, Schumpeter.

1.5 The impact of cycles on the production of goods and
industriesOsti

The volumes of production and employment react most strongly to the change in the phases of the economic cycle in industries that produce capital goods, consumer durables, the construction of residential buildings and industrial buildings, the heavy engineering industry, the production of agricultural implements, automobiles, refrigerators, and gas equipment. In industries producing non-durable consumer goods, fluctuations in employment and output will be less significant (to some extent, the quantity of these purchases will decrease, their quality will deteriorate). The reasons for this are related to two circumstances.

First, the renewal of equipment and the purchase of new durable goods can be postponed for a certain period of time. Therefore, during periods of downturns in business activity, the demand for these goods is reduced especially significantly - manufacturers often stop acquiring more modern equipment and building new factories. In such a conjuncture, it simply does not make sense to increase stocks of investment goods. In all cases, the firm can still use available facilities and buildings. In favorable periods, the means of production are usually replaced before they are completely worn out. However, when the recession hits, firms repair their obsolete equipment and put it to work. Therefore, investment in the means of production is sharply reduced. It is possible that some firms with excess production capacity do not even seek to recover all the capital they are currently consuming. In this case, their net investment may become negative. Therefore, employment in these industries is rapidly declining, output is falling, and unemployment is rising.

Second, it is in these industries that production tends to be highly concentrated, with a small number of firms dominating the market. The oligopolistic structure of the market allows firms to rapidly reduce employment and output levels during a downturn in order to relatively stabilize the price level. In non-durable goods industries, markets are more competitive, and therefore firms cannot counter the downward trend in prices by reducing employment and output. Accordingly, in these industries, prices fluctuate more significantly than employment and output.

For a general assessment of the state of the economy and the effectiveness of economic policy, the so-called “poverty index”, which is the sum of unemployment and inflation rates, two main indicators of macroeconomic instability, is often used.

2. bunemployment as a form of manifestationmacroeconomistphase instability

decline in production

2.1 Definition of unemployment

According to the definition of the International Labor Organization (ILO), unemployment is the presence of a contingent of people over a certain age who are unemployed, currently fit for work and looking for work in the period under review.

At any given time, the size and structure of the working-age population (R) is a definite quantity and is divided into the labor force (N) and the non-labor force (H). These three variables (R, N, H) are stocks in nature. The ratio N/R=n is called the norm of the labor force. Such a rate can be calculated for any subgroup of the working-age population.

n t = or N t = n t R t .

At any given moment in time, the labor force (N) can be divided into employed (E) and unemployed (U), i.e.:

N t = E t + U t or U t = N t - E t .

Considering the flow of unemployment during two successive times t and t-1, we get:

U t - U t-1 = (n t R t - n t-1 R t-1) - (E t - E t-1).

Thus, changes in unemployment flows between periods t and t-1 will depend on changes in the age of the working-age population and the degree of its participation in the labor process, as well as changes in the flow of employment. If the degree of participation of the working-age population in the labor process is constant for a population of a certain size, the unemployment rate will reflect changes in the level of employment.

Naturally, any change in the flow of unemployment U t - U t -1 will lead to the emergence of flows in the labor market.

Thus, unemployment can be defined as the remainder after the removal of the employed from the total labor force. However, there is some uncertainty in the definition of the category "labor force". This uncertainty arises from the vagueness surrounding the concept of labor force participation. For example, in Britain "self-employed" does not refer to the labor force, but in Russia and the US it does.

2.2 Forms (types) of unemployment and measures to smooth them

To date, researchers have counted at least seventy different forms of unemployment and a great many of their classifications. The main forms of unemployment are: frictional, seasonal, structural, cyclical unemployment.

Frictional unemployment occurs as a result of the constant movement of people between jobs, as well as their movement in and out of employment, due to imperfect information in the labor market, and also because it takes a certain time for unemployed and vacant employers to find each other . Even when there is an equilibrium between supply and demand, there is always some unemployment in the labor market as workers and firms look for the best employment conditions. Under ideal conditions (perfect information and no cost transfers) this process could take place instantly and there would be no unemployment. However, reality is far from such an ideal. Frictional unemployment is an inevitable product of labor market dynamism. Its value depends on the frequency of movement of labor and vacancies, as well as the speed and efficiency with which people looking for work and vacancies find each other.

Thus, frictional unemployment is associated with looking for and waiting for work. This is unemployment among people for whom the search for a job that matches their qualifications and individual preferences requires a certain amount of time.

Frictional unemployment has some characteristic features. First, it covers a fairly large number of people in all demographic groups, industries and regions. Second, it lasts for a relatively short period of time. Third, a certain amount of frictional unemployment is inevitable under any conditions.

The very nature of frictional unemployment suggests ways for government policy to reduce it: this is, first of all, the improvement of information on employment in the labor market. In addition, frictional unemployment can be reduced by limiting some of the undesirable causes of labor movement.

Seasonal unemployment is usually identified with frictional unemployment and occurs as a result of seasonal fluctuations in the demand and supply of labor. An increase in the demand for labor causes seasonal changes in the level of production and employment and is often associated with climate fluctuations, construction, and tourist seasons. The level of labor supply can change due to the influx of school and university graduates in the summer months, which directly causes an increase in unemployment. Seasonal unemployment is a serious problem for the country's economy as a whole, but it can create very unpleasant and sensitive problems for some regions and societies that are closely associated with seasonal business.

Structural unemployment occurs as a result of a mismatch between the types of jobs available and the types of labor force seeking vacancies. This discrepancy can be caused by the peculiarities of education, specialties, geographical location, age characteristics of the labor force. For example, structural unemployment can occur when high-skilled jobs are created in the economy, while the existing labor force does not have such a characteristic. Structural unemployment can also form if new jobs do not arise in areas where the main labor force is concentrated. So, structural unemployment does not arise as a result of imperfect information, but because of the unemployed that deprive the labor market of mobility and impede the possibility of finding a job.

Structural unemployment has the following features. Unlike frictional unemployment, it affects certain groups of the workforce as a result of technological shifts, the decline of key industries, or regional shifts of jobs. In addition, structural unemployment, as a rule, is of a long-term nature.

The nature of structural unemployment also dictates certain methods of economic policy to limit this unemployment: first, these are development programs for certain areas and regions of the economy, as well as measures to retrain the workforce; secondly, the displacement of the unemployed from the depressed regions of the country; thirdly, providing the unemployed with employment in the public sector of the economy.

The combination of frictional and structural unemployment forms the natural rate of unemployment (or the unemployment rate at full employment) corresponding to potential GNP.

Cyclical unemployment (sometimes referred to as insufficient-demand or Keynesian unemployment) results from the failure of aggregate demand in an economy to create enough jobs for everyone who wants to work. Unlike frictional and structural unemployment, where the problem lies in the mismatch of jobs with the available labor force, cyclical unemployment arises from a lack of jobs in general. Cyclical unemployment is closely related to the movement of the economic cycle: in the upswing phase, the unemployment rate decreases, and in the depression phase it increases. Due to cyclical economic development, but also as a result of chronic economic stagnation, which is commonly called "long-term stagnation".

Features of cyclical unemployment (in comparison with frictional and structural unemployment) are reduced, firstly, to the presence of significant annual fluctuations in employment associated with the general economic cycle. Second, like frictional unemployment, cyclical unemployment is also widespread throughout the economy. Thirdly, the duration of cyclical unemployment, as a rule (but not necessarily) exceeds the duration of frictional unemployment, but is inferior to the duration of structural unemployment.

To combat cyclical unemployment, it is necessary to adhere to certain public policy programs that ensure stable and healthy economic growth. In addition, it is possible to implement national projects, such as the construction of highways, the development and modernization of the urban economy during periods of depression, leading to an increase in aggregate demand.

2.3 The concept of the natural rate of unemployment

As already mentioned, the combination of frictional and structural unemployment forms the natural rate of unemployment (or the rate of unemployment at full employment) corresponding to potential GNP. A number of economists consider it unacceptable to use the term "natural" in relation to unemployment caused by structural changes. Therefore, in the macroeconomic literature, the term NAIRU (Non-Accelerating-Inflation Rate of Unemployment), which focuses attention on the fact that this steady unemployment rate stabilizes inflation.

Calculations of the actual and natural levels of unemployment are complicated by the fact that the criteria for classifying individuals as employed or unemployed are quite flexible. Generally, the unemployed are those who do not have a job at the time of the statistical survey, but are actively looking for one and are ready to start working immediately. People who have a job, as well as all part-time or weekly workers, are classified as employed.

The combination of employed and unemployed forms the labor force. Persons who are unemployed and not actively looking for one are considered to have left the labor force. These include people of working age who potentially have the opportunity to work, but for some reason do not work: students, pensioners, the homeless, housewives, those who have despaired of finding a job and stopped looking for it, etc. The labor force also excludes persons who spend a long time in institutional institutions (psychiatric hospitals, prisons, etc.).

The unemployment rate is defined as the ratio of the number of unemployed to the labor force, or as the ratio of the share of the employed who lose their jobs every month and the sum of this share with the share of the unemployed who find work every month.

The natural rate of unemployment (NAIRU) is determined by averaging the actual unemployment rate in the country over the previous 10 years (or a longer period) and the next 10 years (forecast estimates are used, taking into account the probabilistic dynamics of the expected inflation rate).

2.4 Causes of unemployment

Representatives of modern neoclassicism do not deny the existence of a connection between inflation and unemployment, but they raise the question: is full employment of the able-bodied population possible at all? Under the most favorable conditions, there arises (as a result of structural changes in the economy) the need to retrain some of the workers, since certain professions simply die off. People are forced to change their place of residence for one reason or another. Known difficulties associated with temporary withdrawal from the production process and subsequent adaptation to changed working conditions are experienced by women at the birth of a child, young people who have returned from the army, etc.

At the same time, the reserve in the labor market creates an opportunity to relatively quickly increase employment in the face of an upturn, make fuller use of production capacities, and promptly increase the product offer. Experts believe that unemployment in the range of 4-5% can be considered economically acceptable, "natural", and its social security is not a problem. Some authors call the “natural” rate of unemployment corresponding to the appropriate level of employment in the given conditions. This means that natural unemployment is strictly determined by the demand for labor. If politicians try to increase employment beyond its natural limits in the given specific conditions, then the first response is to increase prices.

Perhaps the neoclassicists forget about the humanistic aspect of the problem of unemployment. Even in the presence of good benefits, people feel thrown out of their usual rhythm of life, among the unemployed there is an increase in morbidity and mortality, drug addiction and alcoholism.

The specific attitude of the neoclassical to the hardships associated with unemployment can be explained by two positions.

First, they deny the forced nature of unemployment due, according to the Keynesian model, to the lack of effective demand. Unemployment, in their opinion, is most often voluntary. It arises as a result of "free choice": laid-off people do not want to change their profession, place of residence, do not agree to reduced wages.

Secondly, they do not accept anti-poverty programs. The critique is that government funding for housing and food aid for the poor falls short. It is more rational to guarantee the low-income additional income so that they can solve their own affairs on their own. It is proposed in this regard to introduce "negative" taxes, to raise the bar above which progress in taxation begins. At the same time, it is proposed to lower the state-guaranteed minimum wage, as this would increase employment. Sometimes they advocate cutting unemployment benefits.

Monetarists tend to be suspicious of trade unions. They are equated with monopolies in the labor market, which are responsible for increasing the unemployment rate. Demanding a constant increase in wages, trade unions act as initiators of new inflationary waves.

So, I have considered the causes of unemployment on the part of the neoclassical and monetarists. Next, consider the main reasons for the existence of a natural (sustainable) level of unemployment.

Firstly, it is an increase in the time for finding a job in the conditions of the unemployment insurance system.

The payment of unemployment benefits relatively reduces incentives for quick employment - it increases the time to look for a suitable job, to retrain, etc. In the long term, this contributes to achieving a greater balance between the structure of jobs and the structure of the labor force. At the same time, the increase in unemployment benefits and the period of their payment contributes to the growth of the number of unemployed and the unemployment rate. The tool for resolving this problem is state investments in the infrastructure of the labor market (deployment of various systems for retraining personnel, increasing their professional and geographical mobility, improving information about vacancies, etc.). In the short term, financing employment management programs may increase the burden on the state budget, but in the medium term, this will help reduce the natural rate of unemployment.

Secondly, it is the stability (rigidity) of wages.

Fig.3 Graphic representation of unemployment waiting

It generates "waiting unemployment", which occurs as a result of the excess of the level of real wages over its equilibrium value (Fig. 3).

Wage rigidity leads to a relative shortage of jobs: workers become unemployed because, at a given wage level, the supply of labor L2 exceeds the demand for labor L1 and people simply “wait” to get a job at a fixed rate of pay.

The “freezing” of the labor market in a non-equilibrium state is associated with: 1) the legislative establishment of a minimum wage, which limits its free fluctuations. The limiting effect of the minimum wage is the more significant, the higher the proportion of young people, women, low-skilled workers in the labor force, since for these categories of employees the equilibrium wage rate is below the legally established minimum; 2) fixing the level of wages in collective agreements with trade unions and individual labor agreements; 3) the disinterest of firms in lowering wages due to the risk of losing skilled labor, increasing overall staff turnover, reducing labor productivity, labor discipline and profits.

Unemployment rates vary across demographic groups. In particular, the youth unemployment rate is significantly higher than in other age groups.

The trend towards an increase in the natural rate of unemployment in the long run is associated with factors such as an increase in the share of young people in the labor force, an increase in the share of women in the labor force, and more frequent structural changes in the economy.

2.5 Consequences of unemployment

Unemployment has its detrimental effect on every person, regardless of whether he is unemployed or is in a state of potential threat of becoming one. The consequences of unemployment are very severe. These are not only material deprivations, transition to the category of “poor”, sometimes poverty, but also serious socio-psychological consequences: personality degradation, alcoholism, suicide, crime, destruction of the family, traditional moral and ethical values, mental disorders.

The way of life of a person who does not have a job changes radically: the normal rhythm of life is disrupted - the periodic alternation of work, rest, sleep, physiological needs change. Major health changes are taking place.

There are changes in his personal life - the father's authority in the eyes of his wife and other family members is falling. It is also possible to redistribute responsibility in the family, with the wife or someone else becoming the main breadwinner.

Unemployment hits families with low incomes more, especially those with one breadwinner. And vice versa, the higher the average per capita income in the family, the smaller the share of the breadwinner (the main earner), the lower the material losses from unemployment, and the moral and psychological losses are higher. Social assistance provided to the unemployed, at best, can only delay the exacerbation of socio-psychological consequences, but cannot avoid them.

Unemployment has an indirect psychological impact on the employed: competition among workers changes the psychological climate in the team, divides workers, and hinders the trade union movement.

In Russia, along with the traditional, there is another, qualitatively different unemployment. Among the unemployed there are many people with higher education and high qualifications, who have a developed system of needs, high social expectations and high political activity.

Marginalization deepens; loss of objective belonging to a given social community without subsequent entry into another social community and the resulting loss of subjective identification of oneself with a certain group, blurring of the norms and values of the original subculture, without a corresponding introduction to a new one.

Indifference and humility are not characteristic of young people. Anger is the most common reaction to job loss, and young people also often display maximalism and a high degree of social and political mobility. Unemployment, especially among young people, serves as a breeding ground for political agitation and reaction.

In fact, the complete absence of regulators of social processes, the constant emergence of spontaneous, non-institutionalized forms and alternative structures can become the basis for organizing social conflicts. Marginalization can be a source of degradation, demoralization of both individual social strata and society as a whole, a source of conflicts in extremely polarized forms.

2. 6 Unemployment in Russia

Today Russia is experiencing a decline in production. Production volumes are reduced as a result of structural changes. It would seem that the decline in production should be accompanied by an increase in registered unemployment and an adequate redistribution of the labor force by industry.

However, the expected processes do not occur. Enterprises in crisis conditions are trying to maneuver and save their staff. The system of long administrative leaves and the use of part-time employment are practiced. Qualified workers leave such enterprises, which leads to a decrease in the qualification level of production teams. In fact, hidden unemployment has formed (in a market economy, this is the presence of people who want to work, but are not registered as unemployed; in part, hidden unemployment is represented by people who have stopped looking for work). Its scale increases as production is curtailed.

In this regard, the course of reforms faces the problem of the price that society pays for them. And it speaks about itself right away, because the first steps in the transition to the market have significantly reduced the level of consumption of the population. Moving forward with reforms poses another comparability problem: what does it cost to support inefficient jobs and how much does open unemployment cost compared to funding the maintenance of the unemployed, their retraining and job assistance.

According to the report of the Federal State Statistics Service, the total number of unemployed in Russia, calculated according to the ILO methodology, in September 2007 increased by 4.2% compared to August and amounted to 4.481 million people. This is 6% of the total economically active population of the country.

At the same time, the number of officially registered unemployed in September 2007 decreased by 2.8% compared to the previous month and amounted to 1.414 million people.

The number of economically active population in Russia as of the end of September 2007 was estimated by Rosstat at 75 million people - approximately 52% of the total population of the country. 54.2% of all employees in August 2007 worked at large and medium enterprises.

Let us consider in more detail the situation that developed in 2005-2006.

According to the Federal Service for Labor and Employment, at the end of October 2006 there were 1.6 million officially unemployed people. Compared with November 2005, the number of registered unemployed people decreased by 62 thousand people, or by 3.6%, which practically coincides with the data of the previous study. In November 2006, the total number of unemployed in a comparable circle of people, that is, of working age, without students, pupils and pensioners classified as unemployed, exceeded the number of registered unemployed by 2.7 times. The August figure was 2.9, which reflects the upward trend in unemployment.

This almost 3-fold discrepancy is the main feature and problem of the national labor market. In Russia, people who have lost their jobs do not like to look for them officially, and the state, in turn, has practically withdrawn itself from real assistance in retraining the workforce. True, since January 2007, the Russian labor market has somewhat "cleared up" due to the intensification of the fight against illegal migration and, since April 1, a ban on retail trade for foreigners.

So, in November 2006, the economically active population, according to Rosstat, aged 15 to 72 in Russia amounted to 74.2 million people, or 66.2% of the total population of this age. Among them, 69.2 million people are employed, and 5 million people are unemployed. The unemployment rate in November 2006 was 6.7%. Compared to November 2005, the number of employed people in November 2006 increased by 0.7%, while the number of unemployed decreased by 8.8%.

Macroeconomic instability: cyclicality, unemployment, inflation. Macroeconomic instability: economic cycles, unemployment, inflation - Economic theory (Vassilyeva E.V.) Macroeconomic instability inflation

Inflation

Inflation as an economic category, its mechanisms, types and impact on economic growth

1. Economic cycles and their structure. Cyclical indicators

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