Features of the demographic situation in developed countries. Demographic situation in economically developed countries
Demographic crisis in the modern world *
V.P. MAKSAKOVSKY
The economically developed countries of the world, as already noted, have long passed the second phase of the demographic transition and entered its third phase, which is characterized by a decrease in the indicators of natural population growth. Until recently, there were hardly any very significant differences in this respect between them. Recently, however, this group of countries has also begun to experience a fairly strong differentiation, and now this group can also be subdivided into three subgroups.
Table 1
European countries with negative natural population growth
IN first subgroup includes countries where a rather favorable demographic situation still persists, for which at least average fertility and natural growth rates are characteristic, ensuring expanded reproduction of the population. An example of a country of this kind is the United States, where the reproduction formula (fertility - mortality = natural increase) at the end of the 90s remained at the level of 15 ‰ - 9 ‰ = 6 ‰. Accordingly, the average annual population growth was 0.6%. This subgroup includes Canada, France, the Netherlands, Norway, Ireland, Switzerland, where the average annual population growth was at least 0.3-0.5%. With such a rate of growth, a doubling of the population in these countries can be expected in 100-200 years, or even more (in Switzerland - in 250 years).
To second subgroup it is necessary to include countries in which, in fact, expanded population reproduction is no longer ensured. These include mainly European countries, where the total fertility rate dropped to 1.5 in the mid-90s. Some of these countries (for example, Poland) still have a minimal excess of fertility over mortality. Others, of which there are many more, have become countries with zero population growth. These are Austria, Belgium, Spain, Portugal, Denmark, Croatia, Ireland.
Finally, third subgroup brings together countries with negative natural growth population, or, more simply, with its natural loss (depopulation)... The total fertility rate in this group of countries is also extremely low. The number of such countries with "minus" population growth only in 1990-2000. increased from 3 to 15. All of them are located in Europe (Table 1).
It will not be a mistake to say that the countries of the third (and in fact, the second) subgroup have already entered the demographic crisis, which was brought to life by a complex of interrelated causes. First of all, they include a rapid, and sometimes downright landslide decline in the birth rate, which leads to a decrease in the proportion of young people in the population. Demographers call this phenomenon aging from below... Further, an increase in the average life expectancy of people in conditions of an increasing level of material well-being also led to a faster than expected increase in the proportion of persons of an older ("non-reproducing") age in the population, that is, as they say, to aging from above.
table 2
Population dynamics and its natural movement in Russia
However, it would be wrong to try to explain the current crisis only by demographic reasons. Its occurrence was also influenced by many socio-economic, psychological, medico-social, moral factors, which caused, in particular, such a phenomenon as family crisis... The average family size in countries of the second and third subgroups has recently decreased to 2.2-3 people. And it has become much less durable - with the increase in the number of divorces, the widespread practice of cohabitation without registration of marriage, a sharp increase in the number of illegitimate children.
If at the beginning of the 60s the number of divorces per 1000 marriages in the countries of foreign Europe ranged from 100 to 200, then at the end of the 90s it increased to 200-300. Even more egregious data on children born out of wedlock, whose share has increased 5-10 times during the same time. In the UK and France, for example, the proportion of children born out of wedlock exceeds 30%. It is even higher in Denmark - 40%. But Sweden, Norway and Iceland were and still are the "absolute champions" in this respect, with over 50%.
All these reasons and factors in the countries listed in table. 2 are combined in different ways. So, in Germany and Italy, apparently, the influence of demographic factors really prevails. In the post-socialist countries of Central-Eastern Europe (Czech Republic, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, etc.), it was affected by the fact that in the 90s they had to go through a rather painful stage of reforming the political system and the transition from a command-planned to a market economy. The same applies to Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia. And in the countries - members of the CIS (Russia, Ukraine, Belarus), the natural deterioration of the demographic situation coincided with the deep political and socio-economic crisis of the 90s.
As for Russia, in the twentieth century. with the demographic situation, one might say, she was unlucky. The first phase of the demographic transition ended there by the beginning of the twentieth century, but a real demographic explosion did not follow. Moreover, over the course of half a century, Russia experienced three demographic crises: during the First World War and the Civil War, during the collectivization of the village and severe famine, and, finally, during the Great Patriotic War. In the 60-80s, the demographic situation in the country as a whole stabilized. However, in the 90s a new, and especially strong, demographic crisis broke out (Table 2).
From the data table. 2 it follows that in the 70s and early 80s the demographic situation in Russia was relatively favorable. So, in 1983, 2.5 million children were born in the RSFSR. Then, the beginning of perestroika and the fight against alcohol abuse had a beneficial effect on the birth rate and natural population growth. However, with the beginning of the socio-economic crisis of the 90s, the demographic situation deteriorated sharply. Since 1992, there has been an absolute population decline in Russia. It can be added that in the RSFSR in 1988 there were 2 more children per woman (in the USSR as a whole - 2.2 children), and by the end of the 90s, the fertility of women in the country decreased to 1.24 children, while for sustainable population growth needs more than two. According to available forecasts, the population of Russia will continue to decline in the first decades of the 21st century, when a small generation born in the 90s will enter adulthood, and the largest generation born in the 50s will leave the working age. As a result, by 2015 the number of residents in Russia may decrease to 138 million people.
Apparently, both demographic extremes - the explosion and the crisis - have both their advantages and disadvantages. Therefore, some scientists put forward the concept of the demographic optimum, which, if interpreted uniformly for different regions and countries, may be quantitatively different.
* An essay from the forthcoming book "The Geographical Picture of the World". - Approx. ed.
Relatively recently, less than 100 years ago, the birth rate in most European countries, as well as in Russia, was quite high. The European continent differed in the level of economic development from other countries. All this was based on population growth of about 2-3% per year. But modern living conditions, changes in thinking and other circumstances led to the fact that a demographic crisis began all over the world.
This is a process that requires a decision at the state level. A demographic crisis is low or no population growth. This is due to a decrease in the birth rate and an increase in the death rate. However, the demographic crisis can mean not only a decrease in the population, but also an oversupply. In the modern world, the problem of population decline is mainly encountered.
In the case when the birth rate falls within a certain time and does not exceed the mortality rate, there is a tendency that is, its reproduction does not occur. The number of women who are of childbearing age is declining.
In this situation, measures must be taken to increase the average number of children per woman of childbearing age.
Since ancient times, there have been disputes over the need for population growth. Some scholars are of the opinion that this is unacceptable. As a result of this process, there is a strong migration of the population.
The consequences of the demographic crisis have affected everything and have affected the poor and the rich, the developing and developed countries.
There are several reasons for this situation:
Many agree that the urbanization of the population is to blame. An agrarian society is turning into a more industrial one. Having moved to the city, people stopped giving birth to a large number of children. However, this theory also has opponents, who cite the example of Great Britain, Brazil, Argentina. There, despite earlier urbanization, population growth has remained stable.
The second reason is called some loss, a large increase in real estate prices, the desire for numerous purchases, feminism, etc. Separately, these reasons are not the driving factor of the demographic crisis. Basically, this is a combination of several circumstances that affect to varying degrees.
The former countries of the USSR found themselves in the worst situation. There, the demographic crisis has reached enormous proportions. Each year the population of these countries decreases by 0.5%.
Demographic is also a problem. In the 90s, when the alteration was taking place, the country's economy turned out to be at a very low level. This could not but affect the life of the population. Emigration to other countries began. Its dimensions have reached incredible and even catastrophic values. This harmed the country's economy and the development of science even more, because there was a leak of the intelligentsia.
The worsening demographic situation attracted the attention of the country's leadership. A policy concept was developed and adopted regarding this is a long-term project up to 2015.
The demographic situation is very important for the full functioning of the state. This is, first of all, the strengthening of the status of Russia in terms of geographic and political position. Population growth is important for maintaining the integrity of the country and its territories. Demographic stability is essential for national security.
To improve the situation, it is necessary to develop social programs designed to support large and young families. Problems in healthcare, education, culture, etc. also require solutions.
Economically developed countries
The economically developed countries of the world have long passed the second phase of the demographic transition and entered its third phase, which is characterized by a decrease in the indicators of natural population growth (see Table 1). Until recently, there were hardly any very significant differences in this respect between them. Recently, however, this group of countries has also begun to experience a fairly strong differentiation, and now this group can also be subdivided into three subgroups.
Table 1. European countries with negative natural population growth
The first subgroup includes countries where a rather favorable demographic situation still persists, for which at least average fertility and natural growth rates are characteristic, ensuring expanded reproduction of the population. An example of a country of this kind is the United States, where the reproduction formula (fertility - mortality = natural increase) at the end of the 90s remained at the level of 15 ‰ - 9 ‰ = 6 ‰. Accordingly, the average annual population growth was 0.6%. This subgroup includes Canada, France, the Netherlands, Norway, Ireland, Switzerland, where the average annual population growth was at least 0.3-0.5%. At such a rate of growth, a doubling of the population in these countries can be expected in 100-200 years, or even more (in Switzerland - in 250 years).
The second subgroup should include countries in which, in fact, expanded reproduction of the population is no longer ensured. These include mainly European countries, where the total fertility rate dropped to 1.5 in the mid-90s. Some of these countries (for example, Poland) still have a minimal excess of fertility over mortality. Others, of which there are many more, have become countries with zero population growth. These are Austria, Belgium, Spain, Portugal, Denmark, Croatia, Ireland.
Finally, the third subgroup unites countries with negative natural population growth, or, more simply, with natural population decline (depopulation). The total fertility rate in this group of countries is also extremely low. The number of such countries with "minus" population growth only in 1990-2000. increased from 3 to 15. They are all in Europe.
It will not be a mistake to say that the countries of the third (and in fact, the second) subgroup have already entered a period of demographic crisis, which was caused by a complex of interrelated causes. First of all, they include a rapid, and sometimes downright landslide decline in the birth rate, which leads to a decrease in the proportion of young people in the population. Demographers call this phenomenon aging from below. Further, an increase in the average life expectancy of people in conditions of an increasing level of material well-being also led to a faster than expected increase in the proportion of persons of older ("non-reproducing") age in the population, that is, as they say, to aging from above.
However, it would be wrong to try to explain the current crisis only by demographic reasons. Its emergence was also influenced by many socio-economic, psychological, medico-social, moral factors, which caused, in particular, such a phenomenon as a family crisis. The average family size in countries of the second and third subgroups has recently decreased to 2.2-3 people. And it has become much less durable - with the increase in the number of divorces, the widespread practice of cohabitation without marriage, a sharp increase in the number of illegitimate children.
If at the beginning of the 60s the number of divorces per 1000 marriages in the countries of foreign Europe ranged from 100 to 200, then at the end of the 90s it increased to 200-300. Even more egregious data on children born out of wedlock, whose share has increased 5-10 times during the same time. In the UK and France, for example, the proportion of children born out of wedlock exceeds 30%. It is even higher in Denmark - 40%. But Sweden, Norway and Iceland were and still are the "absolute champions" in this respect, with over 50%.
All of these causes and factors are combined in different ways in the countries listed in Table 2. So, in Germany and Italy, apparently, the influence of demographic factors really prevails. In the post-socialist countries of Central-Eastern Europe (Czech Republic, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, etc.), it was affected by the fact that in the 90s they had to go through a rather painful stage of reforming the political system and the transition from a command-planned to a market economy. The same applies to Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia. And in the countries - members of the CIS (Russia, Ukraine, Belarus), the natural deterioration of the demographic situation coincided with the deep political and socio-economic crisis of the 90s.
World (global) demographic problems affect the interests of all mankind, therefore, their settlement is possible only by joint efforts. The concept of "global demographic problems", emphasizing the special importance of population problems, began to be used in scientific literature in the late 1960s and early 1970s.
At present, the attention of scientists from many countries is directed to the study of the problem regional differentiation of world population processes and their impact on the global economy. The contradictions between the trends in the demographic development of individual countries increase its instability, widen the gap in the levels of economic development between developed and developing countries.
XX century (especially the second half) is characterized by a significant increase in the world's population. So, if in 1980 it was 4.4 billion people, in 1985 - 4.8, in 1990 - 5.3, in 2000 - 6.1, in 2013 - 7, 1 billion, then by 2025 it can reach more than 8 billion people. Such a high growth in the world's population is determined by the rate of its increase in developing countries. The current "population explosion" in its strength and significance significantly exceeds the similar "explosion" that occurred in Europe in the 19th century.
The sharp increase in the population in the developing countries of Africa, Asia, South America is explained by the decrease (with the help of the world community) mortality and the persistence of high fertility. Such an increase in the population in these countries complicates the solution of the socio-economic problems facing them, leads to the spread of dangerous diseases, the growth of armed conflicts in them, a decrease in living standards, the transformation of positive phenomena of migration and urbanization into negative ones, etc.
The negative consequences of the rapid growth of the population necessitate a gradual transition from its spontaneous, uncontrollable growth to the conscious regulation of population reproduction. Solving this problem requires joint action by the entire world community and, consequently, the creation of an international mechanism for influencing population processes. However, the main condition for achieving this goal is the socio-economic reorganization of all areas of life of the population of developing countries, the development of regional models of demographic policy.
For the economically developed countries of Europe, North America, Japan and a number of others, other problems are characteristic - population decline due to low birth rates and accompanied by an aging population.
The global demographic situation requires serious scientific research on such issues as: permissible limits of the world's population, taking into account natural limits; the likely timing of the cessation of global population growth; possible ways to curb population growth in developing countries; measures aimed at reducing the rate of decline in the population of economically developed countries.
In the 1960s. concept was formulated bullet population growth, according to which by 2000 it was assumed that the demographic explosion in developing countries would end and the size of the entire population of the Earth would stabilize. To achieve these goals, universal birth control was proposed. The developers of the concept (for example, D. J. Baugh, D. Meadows, J. Tinbergen) believed that developing countries can pursue a policy of reducing the birth rate even with a backward economy without solving social issues, developing education, education and culture.
This concept was sharply criticized by other researchers (K. Clark, P. Kuusi, J. Simon and others). The experience of many
countries showed that without simultaneous economic, social and cultural transformations, a change in the type of population reproduction is impossible.
In economically developed countries in the second half of the XX century. there was a sharp decline in population growth rates (in contrast to baby boom in developing countries). This was due to the fact that the compensatory post-war surge in the birth rate was quickly replaced by its fall to a level that did not ensure simple reproduction of the population. The demographic situation in developed countries gradually turned into a crisis, which manifested itself in a decline in the birth rate, natural decline in the titular population, family crisis, etc.
However, the most significant problem in the developed countries is the aging of the population and all the associated economic and social difficulties. The reasons for the aging of the population are primarily in the decline in fertility and mortality and an increase in life expectancy.
The global population problems include an uncontrolled urbanization in developing countries, the crisis of large cities in a number of developed countries.
In economically developed countries with a high level of urbanization, the growth rate of the share of the urban population can be characterized as insignificant. These countries are currently characterized by the processes of suburbanization (the outstripping growth of the population of the suburban area) and the formation of new forms of urban settlement - megalopolises (the merger of many cities into one huge one), urban agglomerations (a cluster of settlements).
In developing countries, the leading are the quantitative aspects of the urbanization process, its external forms. The growth rate of the urban population in these countries with huge human resources is higher than in the industrialized countries.
On the one hand, in developing countries, urbanization contributes to the progress of society. However, in most of them, urbanization significantly outstrips the development of the economy, and the influx of the rural population exceeds the needs of cities in the labor force.
Urbanization in developing countries, with a lack of many resources, is accompanied by a number of negative phenomena: population overcrowding, environmental pollution, lack of drinking water, fertile ground for the spread of epidemics, etc.
The most important consequence of urbanization is an increase in the territorial mobility of the population, i.e. migration.
Population migration is a complex and contradictory social process associated with the level of economic development, the socio-economic attractiveness of certain territories, the peculiarities and uneven distribution of productive forces in different parts of the world.
On the one hand, population migration contributes to the formation of the size and age composition of the population of industrialized countries through migration exchange of population with developing countries, has a certain positive effect on the balance of the labor market, changes the economic and social situation of the newly arrived population, contributes to the involvement of the labor force of developing countries with modern industrial culture, education of economic, technical and scientific personnel for their growing economy.
On the other hand, a massive uncontrolled influx of migrants can exacerbate the problem of employment, giving rise to unemployment, and exert strong pressure on the social infrastructure of the receiving countries, thereby reducing the standard of living of the indigenous population. In addition, massive spontaneous migration can cause a sharp unevenness in the distribution of the population across the territory. In a number of cases, this leads to bursts of social and political activity of the population directed against migrants, and a tightening of the migration legislation of the host countries.
The above negative consequences of unmanaged migration rank it among the world's population problems that affect the development of demographic processes.
To assist in solving the demographic problems of the world in 1969, a special United Nations Fund for Population Activities (UNFPA) was organized. He developed the UN Population Program, carried out a number of studies in the field of fertility, supported international and national educational institutions for training specialists in demography, etc.
The Foundation has organized and conducted a number of World Population Conferences. The difference between these conferences from the previous ones (1954 - in Rome, 1965 - in Belgrade) was that government delegations took part in them, while at previous conferences, population specialists spoke only on their own behalf.
The first UNFPA conference took place in Bucharest (1974). It adopted the 20-year World Population Action Plan.
The Second International Conference on Population was held in Mexico City (1984). It summed up the results of the implementation of the World Plan over the past 10 years and adopted a Declaration on Population and Development Problems.
The Third World Conference on Population and Development was held in Cairo (1994). Here the Program of Action on Population and Development for the Next 20 Years was adopted. The Cairo conference has once again shown that the solution of world demographic problems is possible with the combined efforts of the entire world community.
Subsequently, the UN Commission on Population and Development has repeatedly addressed the assessment and progress in the implementation of the recommendations of the International Conference on Population and Development.
In January 2004, the European Population Forum was held in Geneva under the theme "Demographic Issues
and policy measures to address them. ”The Forum was organized by the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE) and UNFPA and assessed the progress of the Program of Action of the International Conference on Population and Development held in Cairo.
The urgency and necessity of holding the forum in Europe was caused by the fact that it became the only continent where the population was declining during 1999-2005, and then the rate of natural growth stabilized at zero. Further declines in the population and labor force could hinder the process of sustainable development in Europe.
- See: Demographic statistics / ed. M.V. Karmanova. Ch. eleven.
In the 70-90s, a demographic crisis manifested itself, affecting economically developed countries and countries with economies in transition. This crisis consists in a sharp decrease in population growth rates in both groups of countries and even natural decline (in Russia, Ukraine, Hungary, Germany, Sweden), as well as in demographic aging, reduction or stabilization of the labor force.
Demographic aging (when the share of the population over 60 years old is more than 2% of its total population) is a natural, historically determined process that has irreversible consequences. At the same time, this process poses serious socio-economic problems for society - first of all, an increase in the economic burden on the employed population.
Due to the fact that the noted countries (including Russia) are at the stage of demographic development characteristic of all industrialized countries, a large natural population growth at the present stage is impossible.
In Russia, a decrease in mortality and an increase in the birth rate within the limits in which they are really possible in our country, given the most favorable development of events, can somewhat reduce the natural decline in comparison with the situation in the 90s. (but not overcome it). The only source of population growth, or at least the maintenance of its non-decreasing number, can only be immigration. With regard to demographic aging, it is expected that in Russia in 2000-2015. the “demographic favored” window will open. During this period, the share of the population of retirement age will practically not change, and at the same time, the share of the population of working age will significantly increase. This period must be used to reduce the mortality rate of the population, especially of the younger and middle ages (this will slow down the old a little), as well as to reform the social protection system and significantly increase the efficiency of the economy.
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