Professor Solovyov MGIMO. Political analyst Valery Solovey: We are before very serious political changes. - So Russia is never to be an empire
About what is the protest potential of spring 2017, what are the prospects for Alexei Navalny as politics and who can stand for provocations against him, says the political scientist Professor MGIMO Valery Solovy.
- How do you explain the events that occur around the campaign Alexey Navalny? Who can stand this, from your point of view?
Show completely ...
- Who may stand behind it - quite obvious. There is power behind this. More than no one to stand. Received an indication - as it takes to prevent the valval and compromise it. But this policy turns only in favor of the very naval. The fact is that we are now observing the change of the basic trend of Russian politics. We are coming to the beginning of political revival. And this political revival turns against the power, but on the benefit of Mr. Navalny, who leads his campaign is quite systematic and purposefully. Power begins to experience, I would not say that fear, but still quite obvious concern about Navalny, but I think that it will go to fear. Let's see what the results of the manifestation scheduled for March 26 will be.
Here it is necessary to keep in mind also the fact that the Russian elite has a completely distinct understanding that the country is included in the acute political crisis. This crisis is associated with the upcoming presidential elections and with the absolute ambiguity of the issue - will Putin go to the elections. And since for personalist regimes, the most vulnerable place is the transit of power, the crisis is simply programmed. And I can tell you that the main players of Russian politics to this crisis are beginning to prepare. Enter each other two factors: massive political revival (its signs are already noticeable) and the crisis of tops. And we get a situation that is favorable for any opposition and rather anxious for power.
- Why then in the case of Navalny, if the power begins to fear it, use smallquer? After all, there is still an appeal in the Cyrovalea case when Navalny can land, for example.
- The fact is that it is not accepted, apparently, the decision, how to behave in relation to Navalny. One thing is clear: he does not want to allow the elections. Especially if Putin does not go to the elections (and the probability of this), in Navalny, the wonderful chances of beating any candidate who will expose the power instead of Putin. Therefore, he does not want to allow elections. But this does not mean that in relation to him intend to act rigidly.
Publicity, what is called "promotion", Navalny protects it. Because if you start crushing, it is clear that you are afraid. And if we are now in a new political ascending trend, the persecution will turn out only in favor of Navalny. Therefore, he is still trying to finely shit, try to bring out of equilibrium. But it looks completely helpless, comedy and turns around, ultimately, to him. It would be better not to do anything at all than to do what they do. Like Saltykov-Shchedrin - "Bear on Voivodeship". He expected villages from him, and he took and Chizhik ate. That's how it looks like. Power looks completely helpless and stupid in his attempt to counteract the naval.
- At some point, decisive measures will be taken? How long will it be allowed to lead the election campaign?
- This is solely on the situation. But it is possible that in relation to him, the most decisive measures can be accepted, including lethal, which were adopted in relation to Boris Nemtsov.
- Why does this solution depend on?
- If it is considered that the bulk is a real threat to the transit of power, then I think the idea will get rid of it. This does not mean that this idea will be implemented, but it will definitely appear.
- If we talk about the rally, which is scheduled for this Sunday. Navalny found him agreed, despite the fact that the mayor's office rejected the option on Tverskaya and did not suggest anything else. Under these conditions, does he really collect a large number of people, with such an anti-corruption agenda?
- Yes maybe. I do not know how big, but judging by the discussion, judging by the mood of people, a large group of people is ready to go out, despite the fact that the rally is actually prohibited, is not formally resolved. People are ready to protest against power much more actively than they did at the end of 2011, in 2012. We must give yourself a report. This is what at one time was characterized as "edge against the tip." If the power is putting pressure, then people first retreat, they are afraid, but then they understand that it is nowhere to retreat, and it's time to stop being afraid.
Navalny demands: Let Mr. Medvedev give an answer. If I, bulk, criminal, then there are many people who require explanations in connection with the film on corruption charges. What are all the criminals? The mass trend is changing. There is a turn of social consciousness. Power is not considered more just. She was never considered fair at all, but now she has already lost the balance of justice.
- You said that the level of indignation in society is more than even in 2011. Due to what?
- A crisis! Because the crisis! Then the protest was morally political, even mainly moral. Because people saw that they were deceived during the elections of December 2011, because the core of the protesters initial was exactly observers, those who came to the first action on December 5. And then they constituted the kernel, the infrastructure of this movement. Now the hardest crisis, which has no end, there is no perspective. Social pressure increases. And now in this crisis, the deep layers of Russia are drawn: pensioners in some cities are arranged manifestations, rallies for 2-3 weeks in a row, several rallies have passed against the increase in housing and communal services in Novosibirsk, in St. Petersburg. It is already beginning to spread throughout the country.
Causes are different, but social motives play a significant role. This is what was not before. And the government can no longer compensate for it with Crimea. By the way, note that the festivities about the three-time joining of the Crimea to Russia were not so magnificent as a year ago. The compensatory effect of the Crimea has already been exhausted. And to explain our difficulties with the confrontation with the West is no longer possible, because now in the US president, if not our friend, then definitely not our enemy. Propaganda no longer compensates for the problems, she stopped compensated for them by early 2016, but finally, it began to be responded in some protest forms of behavior. I think it will grow. It is not only seasonal in nature when in the spring it usually comes to life. This is the beginning of a new trend in Russian politics.
Valery Solovy: By 2024, Russia will have 15-20 regions and state physiology
Political analyst, Professor MGIMO Valery Solovey expressed his opinion on rumors about the close constitutional reform in Russia.
The other day the Chairman of the Constitutional Court of Valery Zorkin said about the need to change the Constitution of the country.
According to Professor Nightingale, by 2024 the number of subjects of the federation will decrease in Russia by combining and the Gosideology will be introduced.
Valery Solovey:
I had to write on this topic and actually repeat.
1. Preparation of constitutional reform, or rather the cardinal changes to a wide range of constitutional laws was launched in the fall of 2017.
2. Changes were developed in the following directions:
a) the formation of a new configuration of state power and management;
b) a cardinal reduction in the number of subjects of the Federation (up to 15-20) by combining them for the purpose of disposal of management, leveling levels of development and neutralization of ethnosparatist trends;
c) the decisive editing of the laws on elections and political parties (by no means in the sense of liberalization);
d) the introduction of state ideology.
Well, something else.
3. Initially, it was not clear what kind of change and in what volume will give "green light", and what - no.
But in any case, they were not intended to be implemented simultaneously in view of the projected strong negative reaction.
4. Sine Qua Non - Reconfiguration of Goslasti and Management, must ensure the institutional and legal framework of the system transit.
There are also several options here.
From a well-known model with an institution of the State Council as an analogue of Politburo and the role of the president's role to representation and symbolic functions before, on the contrary, strengthening and expanding the presidential powers and institutions of the Vice-President post. (There are some more options.)
5. The transit of the system must be carried out until 2024, in order to catch the enemies of the external and internal. It was assumed that decisive could be 2020-2021.
6. There is one-only reason why these deadlines could be shifted towards the decrease.
And this reason has no relation to politics and declining ratings. The situation is estimated as a disturbing, but not critical and under control.
7. And even more so, no early election it was about and could not go. The cardinal change in the organization of state-owned and management is not carried out in order to conduct elections and expose the system to the strongest stress.
8. Among the key beneficiaries of the reform of the authorities are called three people, which are also included in the top ten elites in their political and bureaucratic weight.
Valery Solovey
Solovyy Valery Dmitrievich
Solovyy Valery Dmitrievich
D.P.N.
Department of Public Relations, Head of the Department
Graduate of the historical faculty of Moscow State University. M.V. Lomonosova; worked in RAS, Gorbachev Fund; In 1995, an internship was held in the London School of Economics and Political Sciences; Author and co-author of 4 monographs, several dozen scientific articles on the history and politics of Russia and several hundred newslette publications.
Valery Dmitrievich Solovy (August 19, 1960) - Doctor of Historical Sciences, Professor and Head of the Department of Public Relations of MGIMO. Russian nationalist. He graduated from the historical faculty of Moscow State University. M. V. Lomonosov. Then he worked in the Russian Academy of Sciences, Gorbachev Fund. In 1995, an internship was held in the London School of Economics and Political Sciences. The topic of the doctoral dissertation "" Russian question "and its influence on the internal and foreign policy of Russia."
Some additions: Nightingale was a graduate student and an employee of the Institute of History of the USSR Academy of Sciences. In 1987, he defended his master's thesis (the topic is not indicated by anywhere and is not determined on the Internet), and in 1993 he became an expert in the International Fund of Socio-Economic and Political Studies "Gorbachev-Fund" ... During his work, the Foundation has prepared a number Reports submitted, including UN and other international organizations. Nightingale is the author of a multitude of scientific articles and newsstands and a member of the editorial board of the magazine "Free Thoughts-XXI".
Here is the information about the participation of the nightingale in some events in the 90s at the beginning of his work in the Gorbachev Fund ("Free Thought-XXI"):
- Internship in the London School of Economics and Political Science. May-September 1995
- At the international conference in London dedicated to the Chechen war. Report. August 1995
- At the international conference in Belgium, devoted to the problem of "border" (in the zones of ethnic conflict) cities. Report. October 1995
- In the seminars of the US Department of State, devoted to the analysis of the relevant political situation in Russia. April 1995, February 1995
- Periodic participation in the workshops of the Carnegie Center in Moscow and in the meetings of the Club "NG-Scenaria" (member of the Public Council of this publication).
Note that in the Gorbachev Foundation "Russian Nationalist" worked 16 (!) He since 1993 (the foundation was founded in 1992) to 2008, defended his doctoral dissertation in 2005, name Ph.D. dissertation found failed. Characteristic feature: On the Internet it is impossible to detect articles of nightingry of the late 80s and all 90s, and this is not an accident, because of them it would be easy to understand where the legs of the "nationalism" of Gorbachevsky Nightingale grow.
From the Internet: Anglo-Saxons - our best friends?
Professor says.
I personally cause distrust of such facts biography of professor, as work in the Gorbachev Fund and internship in the London School of Economics and Political Sciences.
1. Gorbachev, as a person responsible for the collapse of the USSR, by definition, cannot finance from the funds of his fund, based on money received for this collapse, no one and nothing that even theoretically could serve the goals of creating a powerful Russian state.
2. In the UK, which is historically always a political opponent of Russia, cannot teach people those challenges that contradict the needs of the British crown. And the holistic, nationally unified, politically strong Russian state does not fit into the picture of the world in the vision of Great Britain ...
V.D. Nightingale in the book "Russian history: new reading" teaches how to understand "Russianness":
"From a scientific point of view, Russians are those in whose veins the Russian blood flows Russian is not culture, not religion, not a language, not self-consciousness. Russianness is blood, blood as a carrier of social instincts of perception and action. Blood (or biological rusticity) is the rod to which external manifestations of RUSSIAN. "
The statement is quite provocative and refuted by the personalities of the leaders of democracy in Russia and a number of destroyers and robbers of the country, which are Russians in blood.
Recall that at one time they spoke about Edith Utozov: "Dear Edith, your father is famous. And let us know, ah, Edith, your mother! "
In this regard, I would very much like to know something about the ancestors of the "progressive nationalist" of the Nightingale, in which it is difficult to believe in the presence of "biological Russianness".
By the way, the criterion of Russianness was formulated back in the 90s of the last century N. A. Pavlov - Russian one who:
1) considers himself Russian;
2) thinks, he says and writes in Russian;
3) lives in Russia (including diplomats, scouts and commoded abroad);
if a person lives abroad, then he remains Russian by nationality
it depends on it.
4) respects and loves the Russian people and his story;
5) Especially in their activities to benefit the Russian nation.
This is quite consistent with the concept of belonging to the nation, the classical definition of which was given by I. V. Stalin: "The nation has a historically established sustainable community of people, which arose on the basis of the generality of the language, territory, economic life and mental warehouse, manifested in the community of culture."
Now essentially about the works of a newly new savior. We read the article Yuri Pavlov "" The failed revolution "T. and V.Solov as a failed opening":
"I think about the conversation about the book of Tatiana and Valeria Solovy" the failed revolution. " The historical meanings of Russian nationalism "(M., 2009) It makes sense to start with an important feature of the methodology chosen by the authors of the study. Many of their fundamental views grow out of the works of foreign scientists, primarily Izhak Brudny, Doctor of Political Sciences of the Jerusalem University of Jewish. At the same time, the Israeli researcher is very rarely quoted. As a rule, references are made to his book and periodically summarize some of its provisions ... The overwhelming part of the judgments of the Brutnic for Tatiana and Valery Nevolai is both axioms and a kind of springboard in their research "innovations." At the same time, the inaccuracy and initial promise of Professor of the Jewish University, and its further - in nowhere - the refraction of professors of Moscow State University and MGIMO does not cause doubts ... (allocated by me).
The peak of actual mistakes and falsification in the book "The failed revolution" falls on the head of the nine "national ideas and the Russian society", in which we are talking about the so-called "Russian party" of the 60s and 20th century. This chapter contains numerous evidence that the authors of the book are poorly dealt with this issue ...
Another feature of the "failed revolution" first rightly pointed out Ilya Kukulin: "In general, Russian authors T. and V. Solovyi quote mainly on foreign scientific works, so the nationalism of two Moscow professors acquires some suspiciously imported view: P. thought Kireevsky and K. Aksakak are given on the abstract of the Book of the Polish historian Angea Valitsky, and the quotes from P. Pestel and M. Katkova - on the work of the British historian-Rusist Jeffrey Hosking, and this kind of examples can be continued ... "
Questions and disagreement causes almost every page of the "failed revolution", where we are talking about Russian writers and thinkers. And although the Moscow professors, as already mentioned, do not bother with evidence, examples, any person who knows the history of Russian literature and domestic thought, I think, and the shaftlessness of private approval of the authors of the "failed revolution" authors, and the inconsistency of the general concept of their book ...
It is impossible to agree with T. B. Solovyi at the level and "theory", and the "history" of the question. So, it is not clear why "riot" against scientists is anti-Semitism? Then it turns out that the "riot" against ethnically Russian authors (V. Belinsky, N. Doblarubova, D. Pisareva, N. Chernyshevsky, I. Volkov, N. Glyaeva, M. Golovka, etc.) - is it Russophobia? Of course not…
I blame the skin and Paliyevsky in hatred for the Jews, T. and V.Solov, people seem to be science, should have to at least call the works of Vadim Valerianovich and Peter Vasilyevich, in which anti-Semitism manifested itself as a desire for liberation from Jewish mentors and authorities. I do not know such work. But, for me, it is obvious: the anti-Semitism of the skin and Palewa, of course, was not inherent ...
Non-professionalism, scientific, human weakness of the authors of the book "The failed revolution" manifests itself in the fact that they only refer to those researchers the issue with whom they agree or with whom it is easy to use, and do not notice the work of those authors who have a given problem to be interpreted in principle otherwise. Only some names: I. Shafarevich, M. Nazarov, O. Platonov, S. Semanov, A. Stepanov, A. Chebotarev, A. Kozhevnikov, V. Karets, V. Zhiv ...
I will give only one statement by V. Rumyantsev, which is directly related to the title of the book T. and V. Solovy. The historian pays attention to the fact that the authors of the "failed revolution" strangely notice the modern changes in the historical meanings of Russian nationalism, and rightly claims: "Over the past decades, the efforts of state structures, ranging from the presidential administration to the recruited agents of the FSB, the Russian nationalist movement has been planned - as In personnel and in ideological contents - and filled with new personnel and meanings ... And those nationalist organizations that "clarifications" have never become exposed to be destroying "criticism": their leaders are arrested and sent for the lattice, literature is made and prohibited by court decisions " .
All the said and unpached allows you to evaluate the book Valery and Tatiana Solovey "The failed revolution" ... as a book written by people, in certain circles by Russian nationalists, and in fact, not knowing and hated by the best representatives of the Russian thought of the XIX centuries ...
By the way, V. Solovy - this "Russian" Nationalist is not advocated for the abolition of the "Russian" articles of the Criminal Code, in defense of Russian political prisoners, and already more than 2000, for the restoration of the rights of the national people.
But as a specialist in the Russian question represents Russians:
- Sacceptible, say blasphemy: Russians - quite bourgeois and ordinary European people, dreams, hopes and desires of which the most bourgeois and ordinary. If briefly, this is the desire of a calm, secured and free life, being without any duddy chimer and preferably away from unnecessarily shy and rude down states ...
He continues to engage in his business - the arrangement of personal life, which is the arrangement of Russia. Russians no longer believe in any fool's ideas. They are not lured into rati and labor army builders of utopia, no matter how it was called and under any sauce either. Russians want to live here and now, not understanding why and for which they should tear off from themselves and their children mined a piece of hard work.
Perhaps once we were the people for others, but now quite exactly became the people for ourselves. From the recklessness and complete overhaul of his youth, our people moved to sober maturity. This is neither good nor bad. This is an irrefuting reality ...
Russians are not at all debris, they want to have property and freely dispose of it. They do not want to live in need and hoped that at least their children will be delighted. Isn't it a natural desire for normal, living people? ..
The notorious individualism of the West is an apotheosis of the community in comparison with the Russian atomization ... (Valery Solovyi "What the Russians do not want").
We read the introduction to the doctoral dissertation of Solovya "Russian QUESTION" and its influence on the internal and foreign policy of Russia "(2005th year):" The tragic paradoxyms of the historical measurement of the topic "Russian question" and the policy is that Russians performed the main destroyers of the state, which themselves created at the cost of incredible victims and efforts. The defining role of the Russian people in the formation and functioning of the Russian state in all its specific historical modifications is undeniable. But it is also necessary to recognize the decisive role of the Russian people in the destruction of this state ... In the subsequent historical phases, there was a return to the state-owned pole, the personification of which in modern Russia was President V. V. Putin ...
In the process of interaction between the Russian people with other peoples and countries, historically sustainable constants of the perception of the external world, which constitute the implicit, not reflectable the foundation of the domestic foreign policy are formed. These constants are the following: the understanding of the outside world is not in the bipolar logic "West-East", but within the framework of the "West-East" triangle, which, by the Word, not peculiar to the peoples of the East and the West ...
Here, besides the main idea that there are no enemies to the Russian people - he himself the enemy, visiting and the desire to brightly declare himself, I use the "beautiful" terminology that, along with the wearing butterfly tie, builds nightingaws in the rank of people like Landau who walked under Leningrad with an inflatable ball, tied to the head leuken, or as Einstein, who went to shoes without socks.
Another interesting moment in the dissertation of the nightingale: Usually, in the introduction to theses not only the literature of authors engaged in a similar problem (he has a large number of them), but also the work of the applicant to the degree is mentioned. Here there are no such examples, which makes doubt the author's scientific competence in the topic of dissertation work. The impression is that the thesis was quickly done in order to create a new leader in the Russian national movement - the Savior of the Russian and Russia - a representative of the Fifth Column.
Russian people sees the country's salvation in another. Says V.S. Nikitin:
- To save Russia, it is necessary, first of all, to restore the national pride of Velikorsov and their constitutional law, as the state-forming people, for labor, property and power ...
Russia's path to the future is determined on the basis of the social law of the choice of life management. Its essence is that the country's life system in the political, economic, social and spiritual spheres should be sure to comply with the type of society historically established in the country: individualistic or collectivist. In no case cannot be imposed on the country with the collectivist type of society the theory of the development of an individualistic society and vice versa. It will inevitably lead to the degradation of society and the death of his state ...
But, in democratic media, there is a rapid "promotion" of the nightingale, as the Savior of the Russians from all adversity: In 2010, a message appeared that he became a laureate of the National Prize in the field of literature and book publishing established by the Russian State Library and Russian Biographical Institute, Although in the list of national awards of Russia it does not mean. And one more interesting point: his book is recognized as the best work in the field of philosophy. Now the nightingale is going to create his batch.
And once again recall I.V. Stalina: "... The national question" in different times it serves various interests, takes various shades, depending on what class and when it puts forward. "
Nowadays, Liberal Democrats are trying to play a shoutler, a proven way to play a "Russian Card" with the help of Gorbachev Cubuschonka, issuing him for Russian Solovna, the ideologist "progressive, democratic national liberalism without anti-Semitism and Orthodoxy"
From the Internet: So, maybe we will not be idiots? It is impossible to give yourself to fool - the Russians should be clearly realized, who exactly all this is mutitis, take advantage of the situation at the right moment and turn everything into the right we need.
Boyarintsev V.I., Professor,
Member of the Russian Writers Union,
Laureate of the magazine "Young Guard" 2011
Why appeared such name, with which it is connected?
It appeared because due to the subtoping of the election results in the State Duma, the liberal intelligentsia was urgently made from its environment to new fighters "For justice", among which the "nightingale of Russian nationalism appeared, as he called A. N. Sevastyanov, who wrote:" I will pay tribute to Valery Solovyus for the important and valuable thing, which is in his book and pass by dubious. Moreover, sensitive regiments of political correctness are already here as here and hurry to bite the scientist ... "
But the case is not at all in political correctness, but in a political order, carried out, in particular, by Professor MGIMO Solovy, about whom Vladimir Vasilyev wrote: "The development of political and, especially the economic situation in the Russian Federation and in the world will not only increase ... the process of political self-organization The masses, but also force them to make a change in the political regime and the publication of Russia. There will be no other way to ensure the conditions for the free solutions to the Russian people in the Union with all other indigenous people of Russia of all questions of their historical being.
That's what the fire is afraid of the dominant public class, and for elimination of this, that's what he died out such people as A. Navalny, V. Solovy, V. Tor and izh with them "(allocated by me).
As they say in television militants, "From now on, in more detail":
Analysis of a poorly lit biography of the "Progressive Nationalist" Valery Solovya shows that the public in his face is dealing with a cube, asked by Gorbachev-Fund in the nest of Russian nationalism, the representative of the "fifth column". Although the term "fifth column" arose only in the 30s of the last century, but this phenomenon itself is a betrayal, provocation, the use of a agent in the enemy camp in order to weaken and undermining his power from the inside - all this is not new and found its reflection. both in the Old Testament, and in the latest history.
Biography Valery Solovya
politics, MGIMO
Forecasts that makes relatively financial and political weather, a famous political scientist, doctor of historical sciences, Professor MGIMO Valery Solovy, come true too often that these predictions can be neglected. The awareness of the nightingale is not legends, but political jokes (the very, in which only the share of jokes). The political scientist itself over the fame of the predictor is slightly illuminated: "Friends called from the administration to congratulate. Asked to continue to keep them aware of what was happening in the country. Reluctantly promised. "
In an interview that Valery Solovey Shortly after the elections to the State Duma of the Russian Federation gave Radio Freedom correspondent, a number of assumptions were expressed, which deserve attentive reading and thinking.
Wounds, or on the eve
Foreign squeezing from earlier forecasts Valery Solovya - with an attempt to projection them already today.
Elections to the Russian Parliament are an events for the country themselves. But the permutations in the highest echelons of the authorities began several weeks before the Russians went to polling stations. Many of these events (say, appointment Anton Waino. Head of the Presidential Administration, Vyacheslav Volodina - Chairman of the State Duma) Solovyov foresaw back in early August.
Perhaps there are other of its forecasts that are worth taken into account - especially now, when the elections took place and obviously, a large-scale personnel reorganization begins at the top. That's what (as a "summary of rumors, leaks and insinuations") spoke political scientist.
For the Russian government today still remains a unresolved question: whether the elections of the President of the country in March 2018, as provided for by the procedure, or transfer them a year earlier; The second question is no less fundamental - who will be the candidate number 1?
The key posts in the state there are 2-3 candidates, and it is impossible to say that with all the appointments at the top, it is impossible (especially since the situation is changing dynamically). But something can be stated, the nightingale believes.
First, the current prime minister can go to the increase Dmitry Medvedev (To the question "Where is the above?" There is only one answer. - Ed.). Accordingly, you can make assumptions about who will take the liberated Premier Chair. According to the political scientist, among the candidates there is not a single representative of the liberal camp (including the candidacy is not considered. Alexey Kudrina) - All possible candidates or directly represent the power structures, or somehow connected with them.
"So that in Russia to support the economy afloat, I'm not saying to ensure at least some minimal development, it is critical to remove the sanction regime or at least seriously weaken it. But that power, which in Russia now, cannot negotiate this with the West, which is well known to all in Russia, and in the West. Accordingly, you need another power, formally the other, which could take the initiative of the discharge of tension. "In the financial and economic unit, however, no big changes are foreseen - he solves its tasks quite successfully.
If the decision will be made in favor of early presidential elections, the question of who will be appointed to the position of the first sense of the presidential administration will be appointed to the forefront - it is in its functions that internal politics in the country. In the place of the Vyacheslav Volodin, leaving in the Duma, according to Valery Solovya, there are three applicants - Vladislav Surkov, some protege of Volodya himself and again one of the representatives of the power block.
The change of foster, predicts a political analyst, is waiting for an approximately a dozen of the governors, first of all those who have recently in sight, for hearing and this annoys the public; It is possible that the displacement from the post is waiting for the head of the Crimea.
Analyzing the past parliamentary elections, Valery Solovey focuses on several main points.
The first is the obvious victory of "United Russia" and the crushing defeat of the opposition. And the defeat it has a clear moral and psychological color: the opposition cannot offer the Russians or an attractive picture of the future, no worthy idea that could mobilize them. However, those who voted for "United Russia," says a political analyst, are not sure in the future - and they are not ready for a risk. This is perhaps the choice of stability, but not the development. At the same time, the "Freedom" of the words of the Nightingale leads, "the Kremlin knows better and understands Russia." The government received a blank-blanche, and the opposition, in turn, realized that she would not come to power through the elections - "What does not exclude other paths," warns the publication.
Finally, another forecast: about a year after a year, a new "window of opportunity" will open for Russia - in connection with which the intrigue reports the nightingale, "the results of yesterday's elections and the parliament elected on them will not have exactly any meaning."
Wait and see
Conclusions to the near and long-distance perspective Valery Solovyi voiced the following.
"The idea of \u200b\u200bearly presidential elections is emerged in the political establishment of Russia from the late spring of this year. The economic and social situation worsens, and they know that it worsens. Because of this, it would be a counterproductive presidential election in 2018, when the situation is significantly worse and the mood of the masses may be completely different. ", "The political scientist warned. As for the first person - with a high probability, he considers nightingaws, "Not Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin will go to the polls"And now at the highest level there is a discussion of possible replacement candidates (at the moment - 6-8 people). The names of the nightingale did not reveal, with the exception of one: according to his data, the candidate of the Governor of the Tula region is under consideration Alexandra Dumin.
"The following logic: Higher power has a completely distinct feeling that you need to do something. What? It cannot be compromise with the West - it would mean, from its point of view, the most serious reputational damage. It does not want institutional reforms in the economy. And here she is trying how it seems to her, refresh the system of public administration to give the dynamics to all the areas of life. As Karamzin wrote in his time, Russia does not need a constitution, Russia needs 50 smart and honest governors. So, we find smart and honest civil servants, including the governors. Where to draw frames? It is clear, the footage draws from there, where people who are very trusted ...Valery Solovyi in an interview with radio freedom
The early termination of the powers of the president and the new elections will be conjugate with the operational introduction of corrections to the Constitution - therefore, clarifies the nightingales, "It is very important that Mrs. Yarova was headed by the Committee of the Duma on constitutional legislation". But this, in turn, hint that, after all, Vladimir Putin will go to the elections - if the necessary changes will be made to the legislation.
Early elections that can happen in the spring of 2017 will become the impulse that gives a new dynamics of Russian political life, explains the nightingale. The moment is suitable: "The opposition is morally empty and crushed and the society is still ready for inertia to move within the framework of the electoral model that is imposed on it." But in the fall of the same 2017 everything can change, and it is possible that under the influence of negative processes in the economy. "The situation in the economy is pretty bad", - speaks in an interview with "freedom" of the nightingale, referring to people "much more informed." The stock strength of the economy ends, and the restructuring of the state administration, which we now observe, may, according to the political scientist, will not lead to an increase in efficiency, but to disorganization. An example is the emergence of Rosgvardia and that negative, as the political analyst believes, the effect it has had the capacity of the Ministry of Internal Affairs.
"If the conceived personnel changes will begin to be held at least half, we will see the disorganization of the entire apparatus of the authority from above DONAZU"- Warned Valery Solovey.
Who will "go" other way "?
The mention of the "window windows", which can open (as symbolic!) In the autumn of the seventeenth, the words about "increasing misunderstanding, irritation and confusion in all layers of societies" suggest: and not a new revolution threatens Russia? And if so - then who will become its driving force?
"Even in the case of the largest change, we are not talking about the social revolution. What happened in 1917 will not be ", - calm the political scientist. On a survey about who will support (in case the case, it comes to global changes) at the bottom, nightingale answers: "I think that, most likely, it will be technocrats. ... These people will not shine, prefer not to be public, but they are very influential. As a rule, these are people in the rank of deputy ministers. And some ministers too. These are people who understand that the problems facing the country must be addressed, proceeding not from the ideology, but from common sense and economic logic ".
Revolution as such, the political scientist believes, the country is not needed. We need economic development, restoration of the normal activities of education and health care, the effectiveness of the administrative apparatus and the creation of a working legal system. "These are large-scale, but technocratic tasks, they do not suggest any ideological background": Just the shell already existing institutions should be filled with a working content.
As for the hypothetical "successor of the president", the answer to today is this: "The optimal option is a fairly popular leader, not charismatic, the leader who is not what everyone needs to like, but he must cause the least annoyance of all groups of society. And which should just hold competent politics ".
How exactly the assumptions of Valery Solovya are willing, it will become clear after some six months. And maybe even earlier - the situation, as mentioned, is developing very dynamically.
With the participation of Professor MGIMO, the political scientist Valery Solovya.
- I have a question immediately about the Telegram messenger. Why did it blocked him? We understand that there are a large number of other messengers who can enjoy terrorists from which no one asks the keys. Why Telegram?
- Firstly. To teach the lesson indicative: "Here are looking, which happens to those who are not going to cooperate with state power." Secondly, Telegram's audience, even if he arranges a different kind of crawling ability there, as a rule, in such cases it is declining anyway. And thirdly (and the third is the most important thing) is just a pen test. Since, as far as I know, politics in this direction will be improved and developed, and must acquire a comprehensive nature. The comprehensive nature of this policy is to distinguish the Russian segment of the World Wide Web from, actually, the global space. This should happen somewhere by 2020, but the technical capabilities for this by 2020 should be prepared. So this is just no more than testing.
- That is, Telegram is this first? Prepare first player?
- Yes, it is not very important from the point of view of power - it is important that it will be later. Here, she is now watching the reaction. Here people are rejoicing: "A! We will bypass. " So rejoice, please. But just the time will come when you can not do anything at all, you will, here, in the Russian segment there is a worldwide web only exclusively. The iron curtain in the information sphere drops.
- But if testing is being tested and if a large number of users ... well, officials will leave. But so let's say, ordinary users will enjoy the opportunity to bypass blocking. What will this test show? What is an inefficient measure. What `s next?
- Completely right. This will stimulate it. If this is not an effective measure, we, it means, should take more stringent steps that will be effective. And ultimately we will come to where I started, you just have to highlight our domestic sector and limit it. And to degrade, and limit the sample of Chinese firewall. This is discussed for several years, and technical capabilities should be somewhere by the end of 2019, the beginning of the 2020 is ready.
- Are not afraid of any protests from the user? Enough active part of society, young.
- Do we have anything protests now?
- Now it is possible to get around this ban. And if it were not, maybe the reaction was different.
- Well, if you boil the frog gradually, and there will be no protests.
- She does not notice this?
- Sure.
- That is, gradually the field will be narrowed to narrow?
- Yes, it is preparing, as far as I imagine (and the logic of events in this direction moves), a number of measures to expand censorship in general and censorship in the Internet space too, in digital space.
- Maybe the Durov is not right? Maybe, after all, it was necessary to talk, I don't know there, with the prosecutor's office, with the State Duma? As Zuckerberg went to Congress, explained there. And he did not even come to court. Or is it not affected?
- Well, he would have walked, so to speak, his lawyers would come to court. I would still stand the question: "We need keys." Well, provided keys. It does not cancel the policies in the direction that I discussed you. It does not matter at all, it agrees or not, because the decision is made, goals are defined, for work, comrades.
- And if he provided the keys?
- So what? All the same, the movement would continue in this direction. Well, how can you stop the asphalt roller, which is gaining speed?
- And no way to stop this trend?
- Well, if only state power does not change the ideas about threats and challenges. From his point of view, there, uncomplicated digital space and messenger, in particular, Telegram is the possibility of communication for politically not loyal sections of society, to coordinate their actions and for very fast, almost instant for several hours, and then and several dozen minutes mobilization. In this danger.
- That is, in a global sense, it is necessary to expect that in a few years the Internet will be covered for us?
- Not the Internet will cover, but will limit the ability to go into space other than Russian.
- Some attempts in court judicial? To declare a violation of constitutional rights, complain to the ECHR? Also will not affect anything?
- Not. I think, with the current character and, again, the trends in the development of the Russian judicial system is a completely meaningless occupation.
- Okay. Hopeless story.
- No, I'm just inclined to believe that the reaction will be unforeseen as always. It is impossible to plan everything, you can not foresee. Dusting dumps can cause and cause a very strong reaction. And attempts to limit the space of the Internet, I think they will also be very strong.
- That is, it is possible, after all, some mass protests?
- I have no doubt about it. But it will still depend on the context, that is, what context in which all this happens. Because the same steps are, although they are preparing, it does not mean that they are automatically started. They are launched in a specific context. It is easier to do this when a certain, say, exterior threat arises. Now the situation is. Well, very conditionally, we can call it a "military threat", yes? It may be exaggerated, even most likely exaggerated. Under such sauce, any restrictive measures are always better.
"I think this is not the audience for the audience, because everyone understands everything perfectly when our authorities talk about security measures in relation to Telegram that ... well, this is some kind of nonsense.<...>
- Well, on TV those who hear, they believe. And 70-80% of people draw, nevertheless, information from television and, in general, they trust her. By the way, precisely because the space of the Internet is expanding, it becomes an alternative (social networks), so they are a threat. Including even primarily a political threat. Therefore, it means that you need to take control. Well, since it is clear that the law will be accepted there ... I do not remember its wording. ... information, protection of reputation in social networks, yes? That endangered will be Facebook, let's say. That is, it will most likely, too, will not be there at the expiration of some time in Russia.
- In the end, what will we have? Some internal networks ...
- ... fully controlled?
- Yes, completely controlled. By the way, they have a very large audience. Vkontakte, classmates. Facebook will disappear. As young people say, "drink". Instagram will probably remain, and that is not a fact. And that is not a fact. I think that even if he goes to cooperate, it does not guarantee anything to you.
- But interesting. Well, how big is the likelihood that the special services, even having the keys from these controlled networks, will read all this correspondence? They, indeed, will learn who is there what, who writes, what does it talk about what does? Why then all this?
- No, of course. This is impossible technically. Well, if there is a surveillance, it is a surveillance of a limited number, of course, characters. Then, yes, it is of interest. Well they are therefore demanding to keep information there for some time.
- That is, suddenly you will fall in sight, and then it will be easy to find a compromising?
- You got into sight, and then it will be possible, yes, your story is restored. Well, the compromising can be detected in this way, and you can simply, I would say, construct.
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