Elucidation of the causes of earthquakes and explanation of their mechanism is one of the most important tasks of seismology. The general picture of what is happening is as follows.

In the focus, ruptures and intense inelastic deformations of the medium occur, leading to an earthquake. Deformations in the hearth itself are irreversible, and in the area external to the hearth, they are continuous, elastic and predominantly reversible. It is in this area that seismic waves propagate. The source can either come to the surface, as in some strong earthquakes, or be below it, as in all cases of weak earthquakes.

By means of direct measurements, quite a few data on the magnitude of displacements and discontinuities visible on the surface during catastrophic earthquakes have been obtained so far. For weak earthquakes, direct measurements are impossible. The most complete measurements of discontinuity and displacements on the surface were carried out for the earthquake of 1906. in San Francisco. Based on these measurements, J. Reid in 1910. put forward the elastic recoil hypothesis. She was the starting point for the development of various theories of the mechanism of earthquakes. The main points of Reid's theory are as follows:

1. The rupture of the continuity of rocks, causing an earthquake, occurs as a result of the accumulation of elastic deformations above the limit that the rock can withstand. Deformations occur when blocks of the earth's crust move relative to each other.

2. The relative displacements of the blocks increase gradually.

3. Movement at the moment of an earthquake is only elastic recoil: a sharp displacement of the sides of the rupture in a position in which there are no elastic deformations.

4. Seismic waves arise on the surface of the rupture - first in a limited area, then the surface area from which the waves are emitted increases, but the rate of its growth does not exceed the speed of propagation of seismic waves.

5. The energy released during the earthquake in front of him was the energy of elastic deformation of rocks.

As a result of tectonic movements in the source, shear stresses arise, the system of which, in turn, determines the shearing stresses acting in the source. The position of this system in space depends on the so-called nodal surfaces in the displacement field (y = 0, z = 0).

Currently, to study the mechanism of earthquakes, records of seismic stations located at different points of the earth's surface are used, determining from them the direction of the first movements of the medium when longitudinal (P) and transverse (S) waves appear. The displacement field in P waves at large distances from the source is expressed by the formula

where Fyz is the force acting on the site with radius r; - the density of rocks; a - speed of P - waves; L distance to observation point.

In one of the nodal planes there is a sliding platform. The axes of compressive and tensile stresses are perpendicular to the line of their intersection and make angles of 45 ° with these planes. So, if, on the basis of observations, the position in space of two nodal planes of longitudinal waves is found, then this will establish the position of the axes of the principal stresses acting in the source, and two possible positions of the rupture surface.

The rupture boundary is called a slip dislocation. Here the main role is played by defects in the crystal structure in the process of destruction of solids. The avalanche increase in the dislocation density is associated not only with mechanical effects, but also electrical and magnetic phenomena that can serve as precursors of earthquakes. Therefore, researchers see the main approach to solving the problem of predicting earthquakes in the study and identification of precursors of various nature.

Currently, two qualitative models of earthquake preparation are generally accepted, which explain the occurrence of precursor phenomena. In one of them, the development of the earthquake source is explained by dilatancy, which is based on the dependence of volumetric deformations on tangential forces. In a water-saturated porous rock, as experiments have shown, this phenomenon is observed at stresses above the elastic limit. An increase in dilatancy leads to a drop in seismic wave velocities and a rise in the earth's surface in the vicinity of the epicenter. Then, as a result of the diffusion of water into the source zone, an increase in wave velocities occurs.

According to the avalanche-resistant crack formation model, the precursor phenomena can be explained without the assumption of water diffusion into the source zone. The change in the seismic wave velocities can be explained by the development of an oriented system of cracks, which interact with each other and, as the loads grow, begin to merge. The process takes on an avalanche character. At this stage, the material is unstable; growing cracks are localized in narrow zones, outside of which the cracks are closed. The effective rigidity of the medium increases, which leads to an increase in seismic wave velocities. The study of the phenomenon showed that the ratio of the velocities of longitudinal and transverse waves before an earthquake first decreases and then increases, and this dependence may be one of the precursors of earthquakes.

Earthquake types.

1. Tectonic earthquakes.
Most of all known earthquakes are of this type. They are associated with the processes of mountain building and movements in the fractures of lithospheric plates. The upper part of the earth's crust is made up of about a dozen huge blocks - tectonic plates, moving under the influence of convection currents in the upper mantle. Some plates move towards each other (for example, in the Red Sea region). Other plates diverge to the sides, while others slide relative to each other in opposite directions. This phenomenon is observed in the San Andreas Fault Zone in California.

Rocks have a certain elasticity, and in places of tectonic faults - plate boundaries, where compression or tension forces act, they can gradually accumulate tectonic stresses. The stresses increase until they exceed the ultimate strength of the rocks themselves. Then the layers of rocks are destroyed and displaced abruptly, emitting seismic waves. Such a sharp displacement of rocks is called slip.

Vertical movements lead to a sharp subsidence or uplift of rocks. Usually the displacement is only a few centimeters, but the energy released during the movement of rock masses weighing billions of tons, even over a short distance, is enormous! Tectonic cracks form on the day surface. Along their sides, there are displacements relative to each other of vast areas of the earth's surface, carrying along with them the fields, structures and much more located on their sides. These movements can be seen with the naked eye, and then the connection between the earthquake and the tectonic rupture in the bowels of the earth is obvious.

A significant proportion of earthquakes occur under the seabed, in much the same way as on land. Some of them are accompanied by tsunamis, and seismic waves, reaching the coast, cause severe destruction, like those that took place in Mexico City in 1985. Tsunami, the Japanese word for sea waves, resulting from upward or downward movement of large areas of the seabed during strong submarine or coastal earthquakes and, occasionally, volcanic eruptions. The height of waves at the epicenter can reach five meters, near the coast - up to ten, and in unfavorable coastal areas - up to 50 meters. They can travel at speeds of up to 1000 kilometers per hour. More than 80% of tsunamis occur on the periphery of the Pacific Ocean. Tsunami warning services were established in Russia, the USA and Japan in 1940-1950. They use, to notify the population, ahead of the propagation of sea waves, registration of vibrations from earthquakes by coastal seismic stations. There are more than a thousand of them in the catalog of known strong tsunamis, of which more than a hundred with catastrophic consequences for humans. They caused complete destruction, washing away of structures and vegetation in 1933 off the coast of Japan, in 1952 in Kamchatka and many other islands and coastal areas in the Pacific Ocean. However, earthquakes occur not only in the places of faults - plate boundaries, but also in the center slabs, under the folds - mountains formed when the layers bend upwards in the form of a vault (mountain building sites). One of the fastest growing folds in the world is in California near Ventura. The Ashgabat earthquake of 1948 in the foothills of the Kopet Dag was about the same type. Compressive forces act in these folds, when such stress of rocks is removed due to a sharp movement, then an earthquake occurs. These earthquakes, in the terminology of American seismologists R. Stein and R. Yets (1989), are called latent tectonic earthquakes.

In Armenia, the Apennines in northern Italy, in Algeria, California in the USA, near Ashgabat in Turkmenistan and many other places, earthquakes occur that do not rip the earth's surface, but are associated with faults hidden under the surface landscape. Sometimes it is hard to believe that calm, slightly undulating terrain, smoothed by rocks crumpled into folds, can pose a threat. However, strong earthquakes have occurred and are occurring in such places.

In 1980, a similar earthquake (magnitude - 7.3) occurred in Al-Asam (Algeria), which claimed the lives of three and a half thousand people. Earthquakes "under the folds" occurred in the United States in Coaling and Ketleman Hills (1983 and 1985) with magnitudes 6.5 and 6.1. In Koalinga, 75% of the unfortified buildings were destroyed. The 1987 magnitude 6.0 California (Whittier-Nerrose) earthquake struck densely populated Los Angeles suburbs and caused US $ 350 million in damage, killing eight people.

The forms of manifestation of tectonic earthquakes are quite diverse. Some cause extended rock breaks on the Earth's surface, reaching tens of kilometers, others are accompanied by numerous collapses and landslides, and still others do not practically "come out" to the earth's surface, respectively, neither before nor after earthquakes visually determine the epicenter almost
If the area is inhabited and there are destructions, then it is possible to estimate the location of the epicenter by the destructions, in all other cases - the number by instrumental means by studying seismograms with an earthquake record.

The existence of such earthquakes is fraught with a latent threat in the development of new territories. So, in seemingly deserted and non-hazardous places, burial grounds and burials of toxic waste are often placed (for example, the Coaling area in the USA) and a seismic shock can disrupt their integrity, cause contamination of the area far around.

2 .Deep focus earthquakes.

Most earthquakes occur at a depth of 70 kilometers from the Earth's surface, less than 200 kilometers. But there are earthquakes at very great depths. For example, a similar earthquake occurred in 1970 with a magnitude of 7.6 in Colombia at a depth of 650 kilometers.

Sometimes earthquake foci are recorded at great depths - more than 700 kilometers. The maximum depth of hypocenters - 720 kilometers - was recorded in Indonesia in 1933, 1934 and 1943.

According to modern ideas about the internal structure of the Earth at such depths, the material of the mantle, under the influence of heat and pressure, passes from a fragile state, in which it is capable of collapsing, into a viscous, plastic one. Wherever deep earthquakes occur frequently enough, they "outline" a conditional inclined plane, named after the names of Japanese and American seismologists, the Wadati-Benjaff zone. It begins near the earth's surface and goes into the bowels of the earth, to depths of about 700 kilometers. Zones of Wadati - Benjaff are confined to places where tectonic plates collide - one plate moves under the other and plunges into the mantle. The zone of deep earthquakes is precisely connected with such a sinking plate. The 1996 Indonesia marine earthquake was the strongest deepest earthquake, originating at a depth of 600 kilometers. It was a rare opportunity to see through the depths of the Earth up to five thousand kilometers. However, this does not happen often, even on a planetary scale. We look inside the Earth, because we want to know what is there, and therefore we have established that the inner core of the planet consists of iron-nickel and is in a range of enormous temperatures and pressures. The foci of almost all deep earthquakes are located in the Pacific Rim zone, which consists of island arcs, deep-sea trenches and underwater mountain ranges. The study of deep-focus earthquakes, which are not dangerous for humans, is of great scientific interest - it allows you to "look" into the machine of geological processes, to understand the nature of the transformation of matter and volcanic phenomena constantly occurring in the Earth's interior. So, after analyzing seismic waves from a deep-focus earthquake in Indonesia in 1996, seismologists at the US Northwestern University and the French Nuclear Energy Commission proved that the Earth's core is a solid ball of iron and nickel with a diameter of 2,400 kilometers.

3. Volcanic earthquakes.
One of the most interesting and mysterious formations on the planet - volcanoes (the name comes from the name of the god of fire - Volcano) are known as places of occurrence of weak and strong earthquakes. The incandescent gases and lava, seething in the bowels of the volcanic mountains, push and press on the upper layers of the Earth, like steam of boiling water on the lid of a teapot. These movements of matter lead to a series of small earthquakes - volcanic tremere (volcanic tremor). The preparation and eruption of a volcano and its duration can occur over the course of years and centuries. Volcanic activity is accompanied by a number of natural phenomena, including explosions of huge quantities of steam and gases, which are accompanied by seismic and acoustic vibrations. The movement of high-temperature magma in the bowels of the volcano is accompanied by cracking of rocks, which in turn also causes seismic and acoustic radiation.

Volcanoes are divided into active, asleep and extinct. Extinct volcanoes are those that have retained their shape, but there is simply no information about the eruptions of which. However, local earthquakes also occur under them, indicating that at any moment they can wake up.

Naturally, with a calm course of affairs in the bowels of volcanoes, such seismic events have a certain calm and stable background. At the beginning of volcanic activity, micro-earthquakes also become more active. As a rule, they are rather weak, but observations of them sometimes allow predicting the time of the beginning of volcanic activity.

Scientists in Japan and the US Stanford University reported that they have found a way to predict volcanic eruptions. According to the study of changes in the topography of the terrain of volcanic activity in Japan (1997), it is possible to accurately determine the moment of the onset of the eruption. The method is also based on the registration of earthquakes and observations from satellites. Earthquakes control the possibility of lava breaking out from the bowels of the volcano.

Since the areas of modern volcanism (for example, the Japanese Islands or Italy) coincide with the zones where tectonic earthquakes also occur, it is always difficult to attribute them to one type or another. Signs of a volcanic earthquake are the coincidence of its source with the location of the volcano and a relatively small magnitude.

A volcanic earthquake can be attributed to the earthquake that accompanied the eruption of the Bandai-San volcano in Japan in 1988. Then the strongest explosion of volcanic gases shattered an entire andesite mountain 670 meters high. Another volcanic earthquake accompanied, also in Japan, the eruption of Saku Yama volcano in 1914.

The strongest volcanic earthquake accompanied the eruption of the Krakatoa volcano in Indonesia in 1883. Then, the explosion destroyed half of the volcano, and shaking from this phenomenon caused destruction in cities on the island of Sumatra, Java and Borneo. The entire population of the island died, and the tsunami washed away all life from the low islands of the Sunda Strait. A volcanic earthquake on the Ipomeo volcano of the same year in Italy destroyed the small town of Casamicola. Numerous volcanic earthquakes occur in Kamchatka associated with the activity of the Klyuchevskaya Sopka, Shiveluch and others volcanoes.

The manifestations of volcanic earthquakes are almost no different from the phenomena observed during tectonic earthquakes, but their scale and "range" is much smaller.

Amazing geological phenomena accompany us today, even in ancient Europe. At the beginning of 2001, the most active volcano in Sicily, Etna, woke up again. Translated from Greek, its name means - "I am burning." The first known eruption of this volcano dates back to 1500 BC. During this period, 200 eruptions of this largest volcano in Europe are known. Its height is 3200 meters above sea level. During this eruption, numerous microearthquakes occur and an amazing natural phenomenon was recorded - the separation into the atmosphere of an annular cloud of vapor and gas to a very great height. Observations of seismicity in areas of volcanoes are one of the parameters for monitoring their condition. In addition to all other manifestations of volcanic activity, micro-earthquakes of this type make it possible to trace and simulate on computer displays the movement of magma in the bowels of volcanoes, to establish its structure. Often, strong - megalo-earthquakes, accompanied by the activation of volcanoes (this was the case in Chile and occurs in Japan), but the beginning of a major eruption can be accompanied by a strong earthquake (as it was in Pompeii during the eruption of Vesuvius).

1669 - at the time of the eruption of Mount Etna, lava flows burned 12 villages and part of Catania.

1970s - the volcano was active for almost the entire decade.

1983 volcanic eruption, 6,500 pounds of dynamite was blown up to deflect lava flows away from settlements.

1993 - volcanic eruption. Two lava flows nearly destroyed the village of Zaferan.

2001 - a new eruption of Mount Etna.

4. Man-made - anthropogenic earthquakes.
These earthquakes are associated with human impact on nature. Carrying out underground nuclear explosions, pumping into the bowels or extracting from there a large amount of water, oil or gas, creating large reservoirs, which with their weight press on the bowels of the earth, a person, unwittingly, can cause underground shocks. The increase in hydrostatic pressure and induced seismicity are caused by the injection of fluids into the deep horizons of the earth's crust. Quite controversial examples of such earthquakes (there may be an overlap of both tectonic forces and anthropogenic activity) are the Gazli earthquake, which occurred in the north-west of Uzbekistan in 1976 and the earthquake in Neftegorsk on Sakhalin, in 1995. Weak and even stronger "induced" earthquakes can cause large reservoirs. The accumulation of a huge mass of water leads to a change in the hydrostatic pressure in the rocks, a decrease in frictional forces at the contacts of earth blocks. The likelihood of the occurrence of induced seismicity increases with an increase in the height of the dam. So, for dams with a height of more than 10 meters, only 0.63% of them caused induced seismicity, during the construction of dams with a height of more than 90 meters - 10%, and for dams with a height of more than 140 meters - already 21%.

An increase in the activity of weak earthquakes was observed at the moment of filling the reservoirs of the Nurek, Toktogul, Chervak ​​hydroelectric power stations. Interesting features in the change in seismic activity in the west of Turkmenistan were observed by the author when the water flow from the Caspian Sea to the Kara-Bogaz-Gol Bay was shut off in March 1980, and then, when the water flow was opened on June 24, 1992. In 1983, the bay ceased to exist as an open body of water; in 1993, 25 cubic kilometers of seawater were passed into it. Due to the high and without that seismic activity of this territory, the rapid movement of water masses "superimposed" on the background of earthquakes in the region and provoked some of its features.

Rapid unloading or loading of territories, which in themselves are distinguished by high tectonic activity associated with human activities, can coincide with their natural seismic regime, and even provoke an earthquake perceptible by people. By the way, on the territory adjacent to the bay with a large scale of oil and gas production, two relatively weak earthquakes occurred one after another - in 1983 (Kumdag) and 1984 (Burun) with very shallow source depths.

5. Landslide earthquakes In the southwest of Germany and other areas rich in limestone, people sometimes feel weak ground vibrations. They are due to the fact that there are caves underground. Due to the washing out of limestone rocks by groundwater, karsts are formed, heavier rocks press on the resulting voids and they sometimes collapse, causing earthquakes. In some cases, the first blow is followed by another or several blows at intervals of several days. This is because the first concussion triggers a rock collapse in other weakened areas. Such earthquakes are also called denudation.

Seismic vibrations can occur during collapses on mountain slopes, sinkholes and subsidence of soils. Although they are local in nature, they can also lead to big troubles. By themselves, collapses, avalanches, collapse of the roof of voids in the depths can be prepared and arise under the influence of various, quite natural factors.

Usually this is a consequence of insufficient water drainage, causing erosion of the foundations of various buildings, or excavation using vibrations, explosions, as a result of which voids are formed, the density of the surrounding rocks changes, and more. Even in Moscow, the vibrations from such phenomena can be felt by residents more strongly than a strong earthquake anywhere in Romania. These phenomena caused the collapse of the building wall, and then the walls of the foundation pit near the house No. 16 in Moscow on Bolshaya Dmitrovka in the spring of 1998, and a little later, caused the destruction of the house on Myasnitskaya Street.

The greater the mass of the collapsed rock and the height of the collapse, the stronger is the kinetic energy of the phenomenon and its seismic effect is felt.

Earth shaking can be caused by landslides and large landslides unrelated to tectonic earthquakes. Collapse due to loss of stability of mountain slopes of huge masses of rock, avalanches are also accompanied by seismic vibrations, which usually do not spread far.

In 1974, almost one and a half billion cubic meters of rocks fell down from the slope of the Vicunaque ridge in the Peruvian Andes into the valley of the Mantaro River from a height of almost two kilometers, burying 400 people. The landslide hit the bottom and the opposite slope of the valley with incredible force; seismic waves from this impact were recorded at a distance of almost three thousand kilometers. The seismic energy of the impact was equivalent to an earthquake with a magnitude of more than five on the Richter scale.

On the territory of Russia, similar earthquakes have repeatedly occurred in Arkhangelsk, Velsk, Shenkursk and other places. In Ukraine, in 1915, the inhabitants of Kharkov felt the shaking of the soil from the landslide earthquake that took place in the Volchansk region.

Vibrations - seismic vibrations, always occur around us, they accompany the development of mineral deposits, the movement of vehicles and trains. These subtle, but persistent micro-vibrations can lead to destruction. Who more than once noticed how it is not known from what the plaster breaks off, or the fixed objects seem to fall down. Vibrations caused by the movement of underground metro trains also do not improve the seismic background of the territories, but this is more related to man-made seismic phenomena.

6. Microearthquakes.
These earthquakes are recorded only within local areas with highly sensitive instruments. Their energy is insufficient to excite intense seismic waves capable of propagating over long distances. We can say that they occur almost continuously, arousing interest only among scientists. But the interest is very great.

It is believed that microearthquakes not only indicate the seismic hazard of territories, but also serve as an important harbinger of the moment of a stronger earthquake. Their study, especially in places where there is no sufficient information about seismic activity in the past, makes it possible to calculate the potential danger of territories without waiting for tens of years of a strong earthquake. On the basis of the study of microearthquakes, many methods for assessing the seismic properties of soils during the development of territories have been built. In Japan, where there is a dense seismic network of stations of the Japanese Hydrometeorological Agency and universities, a huge number of weak earthquakes are recorded. It was noticed that the epicenters of weak earthquakes naturally coincide with the places where strong earthquakes have occurred and are occurring. From 1963 to 1972, more than 20 thousand microearthquakes were recorded in the Neodani fault zone alone, the place where strong earthquakes occurred.

The San Andreas Fault (USA, California) was first called "living" due to microearthquake studies. Here, along a line almost 100 kilometers long, located south of San Francisco, a huge number of microearthquakes are recorded. Despite the relatively weak seismic activity of this zone at the present time, strong earthquakes have occurred here earlier.

These results show that with the presence of a modern system for recording microearthquakes, it is possible to detect a latent seismic threat - a "living" tectonic fault, which may be associated with a future strong earthquake.

The creation of a telemetry recording system in Japan has significantly increased the quality and sensitivity of seismic observations in that country. Now more than 100 microearthquakes are registered here in the area of ​​the Japanese Islands in one day. An almost similar, but smaller-scale telemetric observation system has been created in Israel. Israel's seismological division today can register weak earthquakes throughout the country.

The study of microearthquakes helps scientists to understand the reasons for the occurrence of stronger ones and, according to the data on them, sometimes predict the time of their occurrence. In 1977, seismologists predicted the occurrence of a strong earthquake in the area of ​​the Yamasaki Fault in Japan based on the behavior of weak earthquakes.

One of the paradoxes of detecting and studying microearthquakes was that they began to be recorded in zones of active tectonic faults, naturally assuming that earthquakes of similar energy do not occur in other places. However, this turned out to be a delusion. A very similar situation occurred at one time in astronomy - visual observations of the night sky made it possible to discover stars and their clusters, to draw constellations. However, as soon as super-powerful telescopes appeared, and then radio telescopes, a huge new world opened up for scientists - new star luminaries, planets around them, radio galaxies invisible to the eye, and much more were discovered.

Naturally, if you do not install sensitive equipment in seemingly seismically calm areas, then it is impossible to detect micro-earthquakes. However, it has long been known that fracturing and rock bumps also occur in tectonically inactive zones. Rock bumps accompany the development of rock in mines, and the pressure of the rock masses on the formed voids leads to a creep of their fastenings. Of course, in such places the intensity of microearthquakes is inferior in the number of shocks to the zones where strong earthquakes occur today and it is necessary to put a lot of work and time to register them. However, nevertheless, microearthquakes, apparently, occur everywhere, under the influence of tidal and gravitational reasons.

The focus, hypocenter, and epicenter of the earthquake.

The accumulation of deformation energy occurs in a certain volume of the underground, called earthquake source... Its volume can gradually increase with the accumulation of deformation energy. At some point, at some point within the focus, a rock rupture occurs. This place is called focus, or earthquake hypocenter... It is in it that the rapid release of the accumulated deformation energy takes place.

The released energy turns, firstly, into thermal energy and secondly, in seismic energy carried away by elastic waves. Note that the energy carried away by seismic waves is only a small (up to 10%) fraction of the total energy released during an earthquake. Basically, the energy is spent on heating the bowels; This is evidenced by the floating of rocks in the fault zone.

The hypocenter (focus) of an earthquake should not be confused with its epicenter. Earthquake epicenter there is a point on the surface of the earth located above the hypocenter... It is clear that it is in the epicenter that the most serious destruction is observed, caused by seismic waves escaping from the hypocenter. Hypocenter depth, in other words, the distance from the hypocenter to the epicenter is one of the most important characteristics of a tectonic earthquake. It can reach 700 km.

According to the depth of the hypocenters, earthquakes are divided into three types: shallow(depth of hypocenters up to 70 km), mid-focus(depth from 70 km to 300 km), deep focus(depth more than 300 km). About two thirds of all tectonic earthquakes occurring are shallow; their hypocenters are concentrated within the earth's crust. Wanting to emphasize being in the very center of an event, they often say: "I was in the epicenter of the event." It would be more correct to say in this case: "I visited the hypocenter of the event." Of course, an "event" should not be understood here as an earthquake. Obviously impossible to visit in the very center(i.e. hypocenter) earthquake.


The earthly firmament has always been a symbol of security. And today a person who is afraid of flying on an airplane feels protected only by feeling a flat surface under his feet. Therefore, it becomes most terrible when, in the literal sense, the soil leaves from under our feet. Earthquakes, even the weakest ones, undermine the sense of security so strongly that many of the consequences are related not to destruction, but to panic and are of a psychological rather than physical nature. In addition, this is one of those catastrophes that humanity cannot prevent, and therefore many scientists are investigating the causes of earthquakes, developing methods for fixing shocks, forecasting and warning. The amount of knowledge already accumulated by mankind on this issue makes it possible to minimize losses in some cases. At the same time, the examples of earthquakes in recent years clearly indicate that there is still much to be learned and done.

The essence of the phenomenon

At the heart of every earthquake is a seismic wave, leading to It arises as a result of powerful processes of various depths. Quite minor earthquakes occur due to surface drift, often along faults. Deeper in their location causes of earthquakes often have devastating consequences. They flow in zones along the edges of shifting plates that plunge into the mantle. The processes taking place here lead to the most noticeable consequences.

Earthquakes happen every day, but most of them are overlooked by people. They are only fixed with special devices. In this case, the greatest strength of shocks and maximum destruction occur in the epicenter zone, the place above the source that generated seismic waves.

Scales

Today there are several ways to determine the strength of the phenomenon. They are based on concepts such as the intensity of an earthquake, its energy class and magnitude. The latter is a quantity that characterizes the amount of energy released in the form of seismic waves. This method of measuring the strength of a phenomenon was proposed in 1935 by Richter and therefore is popularly called the Richter scale. It is still used today, however, contrary to popular belief, each earthquake is assigned not points, but a certain magnitude.

The earthquake scores, which are always given in the description of the consequences, refer to a different scale. It is based on a change in the amplitude of the wave, or the magnitude of the oscillations at the epicenter. The values ​​on this scale also describe the intensity of earthquakes:

  • 1-2 points: rather weak tremors, recorded only by instruments;
  • 3-4 points: perceptibly in high-rise buildings, often noticeable by the swinging of the chandelier and the displacement of small objects, a person may feel dizzy;
  • 5-7 points: shocks can be felt already on the ground, cracks may appear on the walls of buildings, plaster crumbling;
  • 8 points: powerful tremors lead to the appearance of deep cracks in the ground, noticeable damage to buildings;
  • 9 points: walls of houses, often underground structures, collapse;
  • 10-11 points: such an earthquake leads to collapses and landslides, collapse of buildings and bridges;
  • 12 points: leads to the most catastrophic consequences, up to a strong change in the landscape and even the direction of movement of water in rivers.

Earthquake scores, which are given in various sources, are determined precisely on this scale.

Classification

The ability to predict any catastrophe is associated with a clear understanding of what causes it. The main causes of earthquakes can be divided into two large groups: natural and artificial. The former are associated with changes in the interior, as well as with the influence of certain cosmic processes, the latter are caused by human activity. The classification of earthquakes is based on the cause that caused it. Among the natural, tectonic, landslide, volcanic and others are distinguished. Let's dwell on them in more detail.

Tectonic earthquakes

The crust of our planet is constantly in motion. It is this that underlies most earthquakes. The tectonic plates that make up the crust move relative to each other, collide, diverge, and converge. In places of faults, where the boundaries of the plates pass and a compression or tension force occurs, tectonic stress accumulates. Growing up, it, sooner or later, leads to the destruction and displacement of rocks, as a result of which seismic waves are born.

Vertical movements lead to the formation of dips or uplift of rocks. Moreover, the displacement of the plates can be insignificant and amount to only a few centimeters, however, the amount of energy released during this is sufficient for serious destruction on the surface. Traces of such processes on the ground are very noticeable. This can be, for example, displacement of one part of the field relative to another, deep cracks and dips.

Under the water column

The causes of earthquakes on the ocean floor are the same as on land - the movements of lithospheric plates. Their consequences for people are somewhat different. Very often, the displacement of oceanic plates causes tsunamis. Having originated above the epicenter, the wave gradually gains height and near the coast it often reaches ten meters, and sometimes even fifty.

According to statistics, over 80% of tsunamis hit the shores of the Pacific Ocean. Today, there are many services in seismic zones, working on predicting the occurrence and propagation of destructive waves and alerting the population of danger. However, people are still poorly protected from such natural disasters. Examples of earthquakes and tsunamis at the beginning of our century are another confirmation of this.

Volcanoes

When it comes to earthquakes, images of the eruption of hot magma, which were once seen, appear in the head. And this is not surprising: the two natural phenomena are linked. An earthquake can be caused by volcanic activity. The contents of the mountains of fire exert pressure on the surface of the earth. During the sometimes quite long period of preparation for the eruption, periodic explosions of gas and vapor occur, which generate seismic waves. The pressure on the surface creates the so-called volcanic tremor (tremor). It is a series of shallow earth shakes.

Earthquakes are caused by processes occurring in the depths of both active and extinct volcanoes. In the latter case, they are a sign that the frozen mountain of fire may still wake up. Volcanic researchers often use microearthquakes to predict eruptions.

In many cases, it is difficult to unambiguously attribute an earthquake to a tectonic or volcanic group. The signs of the latter are considered to be the location of the epicenter in the immediate vicinity of the volcano and the relatively small magnitude.

Landslides

The earthquake can also be caused by the collapse of rocks. in the mountains arise as a result of a variety of processes in the depths and natural phenomena, and human activity. Voids and caves in the ground can collapse and generate seismic waves. The collapse of rocks is facilitated by insufficient drainage of water, which destroys seemingly solid structures. The collapse can also be caused by a tectonic earthquake. The collapse of an impressive mass at the same time causes insignificant seismic activity.

Such earthquakes are characterized by a small force. Generally, the volume of the collapsed rock is not enough to cause significant fluctuations. However, sometimes earthquakes of this type lead to noticeable destruction.

Depth classification

The main causes of earthquakes are associated, as already mentioned, with various processes in the bowels of the planet. One of the options for classifying such phenomena is based on the depth of their origin. Earthquakes are divided into three types:

  • Surface - the source is located at a depth of no more than 100 km; approximately 51% of earthquakes belong to this type.
  • Intermediate - the depth varies from 100 to 300 km, 36% of earthquakes are located on this segment.
  • Deep focus - below 300 km, this type accounts for about 13% of such disasters.

The most significant marine earthquake of the third type occurred in 1996 in Indonesia. Its source was located at a depth of over 600 km. This event allowed scientists to "enlighten" the bowels of the planet to a considerable depth. Practically all deep-focus earthquakes that are harmless to humans are used to study the subsoil structure. Much data on the structure of the Earth was obtained from the study of the so-called Wadati-Benioff zone, which can be represented as a curved oblique line indicating the place where one tectonic plate enters another.

Anthropogenic factor

The nature of earthquakes has changed somewhat since the beginning of the development of technical knowledge of mankind. In addition to natural causes causing tremors and seismic waves, artificial ones also appeared. Man, mastering nature and its resources, as well as building up technical power, by his activities can provoke a natural disaster. The causes of earthquakes are underground explosions, the creation of large reservoirs, the production of large volumes of oil and gas, resulting in voids underground.

One of the rather serious problems in this regard is earthquakes arising from the creation and filling of reservoirs. Water layers, huge in volume and mass, exert pressure on the subsoil and lead to a change in the hydrostatic equilibrium in the rocks. Moreover, the higher the created dam, the greater the likelihood of the occurrence of the so-called induced seismic activity.

In places where earthquakes occur for natural reasons, often human activities are superimposed on tectonic processes and provoke natural disasters. Such data impose certain responsibilities on companies involved in the development of oil and gas fields.

Effects

Strong earthquakes cause great destruction over vast areas. The catastrophic nature of the consequences decreases with distance from the epicenter. The most dangerous results of destruction are various. The collapse or deformation of industries associated with hazardous chemicals leads to their release into the environment. The same can be said about the burial grounds and burial sites of nuclear waste. Seismic activity can cause the infection of vast areas.

In addition to numerous destruction in cities, earthquakes have consequences of a different nature. Seismic waves, as already noted, can cause landslides, mudflows, floods and tsunamis. Earthquake zones after a natural disaster often change beyond recognition. Deep cracks and sinkholes, soil washout - these and other "transformations" of the landscape lead to significant environmental changes. They can lead to the death of flora and fauna of the area. This is facilitated by various gases and metal compounds coming from deep faults, and simply the destruction of entire sections of the habitat.

The strong and the weak

The most impressive destruction remains after megalo-earthquakes. They are characterized by a magnitude of over 8.5. Such disasters, fortunately, are extremely rare. As a result of such earthquakes in the distant past, some lakes and river beds were formed. A picturesque example of the "activity" of a natural disaster is Lake Gok-Gol in Azerbaijan.

Weak earthquakes are a latent threat. As a rule, it is very difficult to find out about the probability of their occurrence on the ground, while phenomena of more impressive magnitude always leave identification marks. Therefore, all industrial and residential facilities near seismically active zones are under threat. Such structures include, for example, many nuclear power plants and power plants in the United States, as well as burial sites for radioactive and toxic waste.

Areas of earthquakes

The uneven distribution of seismically hazardous zones on the world map is also associated with the peculiarities of the causes of a natural disaster. There is a seismic belt in the Pacific Ocean, which, in one way or another, is associated with an impressive part of earthquakes. It includes Indonesia, the west coast of Central and South America, Japan, Iceland, Kamchatka, Hawaii, the Philippines, the Kuriles, and Alaska. The second most active belt is the Eurasian one: the Pyrenees, the Caucasus, Tibet, the Apennines, the Himalayas, Altai, the Pamirs and the Balkans.

The earthquake map is full of other areas of potential danger. All of them are associated with places of tectonic activity, where there is a high probability of collision of lithospheric plates, or with volcanoes.

The earthquake map of Russia is also full of a sufficient number of potential and active sources. The most dangerous zones in this sense are Kamchatka, Eastern Siberia, the Caucasus, Altai, Sakhalin and the Kuril Islands. The most destructive earthquake in its consequences in recent years in our country occurred on the island of Sakhalin in 1995. Then the intensity of the natural disaster was nearly eight points. The catastrophe led to the destruction of a large part of Neftegorsk.

The enormous danger of a natural disaster and the impossibility of preventing it makes scientists from all over the world study earthquakes in detail: the causes and consequences, "identification" signs and the possibility of forecasting. It is interesting that technical progress, on the one hand, helps to more and more accurately predict threatening events, to catch the slightest changes in the internal processes of the Earth, and on the other hand, it also becomes a source of additional danger: accidents at hydroelectric power plants and nuclear power plants, in places of production, are added to surface faults. terrible industrial fires. The earthquake itself is a phenomenon as ambiguous as scientific and technological progress: it is destructive and dangerous, but it indicates that the planet is alive. According to scientists, the complete cessation of volcanic activity and earthquakes will mean the death of the planet in geological terms. The differentiation of the bowels will come to an end, the fuel that has warmed up the interior of the Earth for several million years will run out. And it is not yet clear whether there will be a place for people on the planet without earthquakes.

The boom of democratic transformations that swept the world at the end of the twentieth century, presented the world with a wide variety of forms of implementation of the currently most demanded development model. Democracy is sometimes viewed as a panacea for long-standing problems that have not been resolved for decades. “The experience of developed countries testifies to the effectiveness of a democratic form of government, which, despite its national identity, is nevertheless characterized, in the words of V.V. Putin, by“ hard-won standards of civilization, ”which the newly emerged democracies are supposed to meet. However, the path leading to the building of a democratic state is long and unpredictable. Democracy by itself cannot feed the people, ensure a decent standard of living, solve most of the socio-economic problems that are most sensitive to people. It can only create the necessary political institutions and practices, the application of which makes possible the least painful for society ways of solving accumulated problems in the interests of broad social strata. "

The models of the democratic structure of each country are unique, since democracy is not limited to some only possible, unified set of institutions and rules. Therefore, we can talk about a specific form of democracy in a particular country, which depends on socio-economic conditions, on the traditional structure of the state, on political culture, on the prevailing perception of power in society.

Democratic regimes can be less efficient administratively, as decision-making is consistent with a large number of participants in public life. Such regimes may not be more stable and manageable than autocratic ones. This is due to the emergence of democratic freedoms and dissatisfaction with the new rules and state structures, which are unusual for the participants in the political process. Adaptation to new political conditions can be painful, but the main thing should be the acceptance by all forces, including anti-democratic ones, of the general rules of limited certainty and collective will. The problem of controllability is relevant for any regime. It is known that democracies can lose their managerial capacity when the general public is disappointed with democratic leadership.

Democracy, while creating more open societies, does not necessarily imply the same economy. Some democracies have adopted protectionism and border closings, relying heavily on social structures to stimulate economic development. Conversely, economic freedom is not synonymous with political freedom.

Democratization is not always accompanied by the solution of social and economic problems, effective governance, and political harmony. But in a democracy, you can count on the emergence of political structures, peacefully competing with each other, forming governments and influencing public policy, capable of resolving social and economic conflicts through established procedures. Such structures, organically linked to civil society, will encourage their constituents to take collective action. Unlike autocracies, democracies are able to change their rules of the game and structures under the influence of changing circumstances, adapting to the respective political conditions.

Democracy is a fragile system, and if the conditions are not created to maintain it, it can be destroyed. Society often expects an immediate return from the elected government, without thinking about what the citizens themselves are doing in order for the system to work effectively, so that representatives of the people express their interests, be controlled and governed. This problem is also typical for Russia, which has embarked on the path of democratic development, whose citizens are not spoiled by the attention of the authorities and are not sophisticated in democratic subtleties and nuances.

“For the establishment of democracy, the following important conditions must be met:

1.a high level of socio-economic development, capable of providing the necessary well-being for all citizens, without which it is impossible to achieve social harmony, stability and strength of basic democratic principles;

2. the variety of forms of ownership, the obligatory recognition and guarantee of the right of private property, since only in this case it is possible to realistically ensure all human rights and freedoms, his, albeit relative, independence from the state;

3. a high degree of development of the general and political culture of society, significant social and political activity of individuals and their voluntary associations. "

As the experience of developed countries shows, democracy has serious problems, the resolution of which is a prerequisite for its effective functioning. Among the main economic obstacles to democratic development, the American political scientist S. Huntington calls poverty, therefore he associates the future of democracy with a developed economy. What hinders economic development is also an obstacle to the spread of democracy.

S. Huntington believed that “obstacles to the democratization of countries can be divided into three broad categories: political, cultural and economic. Lack of experience in democratic governance is identified as one of the potentially significant political obstacles, which is manifested in the lack of adherence to democratic values ​​of political leaders. The essence of cultural obstacles lies in the difference between the world's great cultural and historical traditions in relation to their inherent views, values, beliefs and corresponding behavioral patterns that are conducive to the development of democracy. A deeply anti-democratic culture impedes the spread of democratic norms in society, denies the legitimacy of democratic institutions and thus can greatly complicate their construction and effective functioning or even prevent it. The American political scientist names poverty as one of the main economic obstacles to democratic development, so he connects the future of democracy with a developed economy. "

Also, an obstacle to democracy was the emergence of a technocracy, which believes that only a few competent persons, and not the entire people, are called upon to make a decision. Democracy presupposes the existence of an open and controlled government. This is especially important in the age of high technologies, when the possibilities of obtaining the fullest possible information about citizens in the government are increasing many times over. The ideal of power is always that you can control every step of a person, know what he is talking about and what he thinks. Nowadays, with the help of technical means, modern rulers of democracies can know much more about their citizens than authoritarian monarchs did before.

An analysis of the effective formation of democratic regimes suggests that democratic political institutions become truly effective only as a result of a long process of development and adaptation to the conditions and traditions of a given society, as evidenced by the experience of democratic construction in Western countries. So, a high degree of democracy in Western states should be spoken only from the second half of the twentieth century. Consequently, the current difficulties in the formation of democratic political institutions, both in Russia and in a number of other countries, are explained not by the problem of compatibility of democracy and its institutions with national traditions and norms, but by the fact that they can become effective only by gradually adapting to political realities. ...

“The peculiarity of Russia is the priority of the state over private institutions that have formed in society. As a result, the majority of the population still expects the state to provide ready-made solutions to their problems, rather than taking the initiative and trying to help themselves, which would reduce their dependence on a state apparatus that is immune to the changes that need to be made in the socio-economic sphere. Democracy in Russia can be classified as "poor democracies", which are weak democracies. But nevertheless, the tendency to oust traditional ways of representation is expanding, and the political process is acquiring more and more democratic features. "

3. Comparative analysis of three historical forms of political democracy of the modern era: liberal, collectivist and pluralistic

Liberal democracy

Democratic systems existing today trace their origins back to the forms of government that emerged at the end of the 18th-19th centuries. under the direct and versatile influence of liberalism. The merits of liberalism in the development of political and democratic thought are extremely great. This ideological and political trend came out under the banner of individual freedom, protecting it from state tyranny.

“For the first time in the history of social thought, liberalism separated the individual from society and the state, delimited two autonomous spheres - the state and civil society, constitutionally and institutionally limited the scope and powers of the state in its interaction with civil society and the individual, protected the autonomy and rights of the minority in relation to to the majority, proclaimed the political equality of all citizens, endowed the individual with fundamental, inalienable rights and approved it as the main element of the political system. "

Let's note the general advantages and disadvantages of liberal democracy.

Strengths Weak sides
1) The identification of the people as a subject of power with male owners, the exclusion of the lower strata, primarily hired workers, as well as women from among the citizens with the right to vote. 2) Individualism, recognition of the individual as the primary and main source of power, the priority of the rights of the individual over the laws of the state. Individual rights for protection are enshrined in the constitution, the strict implementation of which is monitored by an independent court. 3) The narrow-political, formal nature of democracy, arising from a narrow, negative understanding of freedom as the absence of coercion, restrictions. 4) Parliamentarism, the predominance of representative forms of political influence. 5) Limitation of the competence and sphere of activity of the state mainly by the protection of public order, security and rights of citizens, social peace, etc., its non-interference in the affairs of civil society, economic, social and spiritual and moral processes. 6) Separation of powers, creation of checks and balances as a condition for effective control of citizens over the state, prevention of abuse of power. 7) Limiting the power of the majority over the minority, ensuring individual and group autonomy and freedom. 1) Social class limitations. It does not apply to the majority of the population: proletarians, other lower strata, women - and therefore is not the rule of the people in the full sense of the word. 2) Formality and, as a consequence, declarativeness of democracy for the poor, socially disadvantaged strata of the population, its transformation from democracy into a competition of money bags. 3) The limited scope of democracy and political participation of the individual. The reliance on representative bodies and only occasional, predominantly electoral political activity of citizens actually takes the authorities out of the control of the masses and turns democracy into a form of domination by the political elite. 4) Diminishing the role of the state in managing society and strengthening social justice. 5) Excessive value individualism, ignorance of the collective nature of man, his belonging to various social groups.

The listed strengths of liberal democracy indicate that it has become a major step forward on the path of human liberation, respect for his dignity and fundamental rights. At the same time, this model of democracy, presented in its classical version, is very far from the ideal of democracy and is justifiably criticized.

On the topic: "Democracy in the modern world"

By discipline: "Political science"

Performed:

1st year student of 4 groups

Full-time - correspondence department

Faculty of Veterinary Medicine

Kiseleva Nadezhda Viktorovna

Record book number: B / B13077

Work verified

"___" ________________2014

Teacher:

Nikita Tikhomirov

Moscow 2014

    Introductions

    Conclusions.

Introductions

Democracy is a form of government in which all citizens participate in government and take responsibility to society, either directly or through their freely elected representatives. Democracy is a set of principles and practices that protect human freedom. Democracy is the institutionalization (legalization) of freedom

Democracy

Democracy (ancient Greek δημοκρατία - "power of the people", from δῆμος - "people" and κράτος - "power") is a form of government in which citizens, personally or through elected representatives, exercise the right to make (political) decisions. Democracy is based on the recognition of the people as a source of power and presupposes majority rule, equality of citizens, the rule of law, etc. In a direct democracy, the main decisions are made by the voters themselves (eg, through referendums), in a representative democracy, decisions are made by elected institutions (eg, parliaments). A form of government where the power of the majority is exercised within the framework of constitutional restrictions guaranteeing the minority the exercise of certain individual or collective rights (such as, for example, freedom of speech, religion, etc.) is called liberal, or constitutional democracy.

Human rights, democracy and freedom in the modern world.

"There is no person who would not love freedom, but a just person demands it for everyone, and an unjust one - only for himself." This phrase belongs to Karl Ludwig Börne, a German thinker and publicist, defender of the doctrine of human freedom, equality of all before the law and democratic, just form of government.

Today, respect for human rights and democratic norms is one of the main indicators by which the degree of development of society and the state is assessed. Many countries of the world put the issue of respect for human rights at the forefront of their foreign policy; there are a number of influential human rights international non-governmental organizations.

today, concepts such as "democracy" and "human rights" are often depreciated internationally. And this cannot but worry. The idea of ​​human rights is no longer the beacon for countries undergoing economic and political change. This idea ceases to be an absolute, undeniable and authoritative value.

there is reason to assert that in the modern world there is a departure from the foundations of democracy and the devaluation of the idea of ​​human rights, which can be explained by three reasons.

At first, in some countries there was a lack of prerequisites for the self-organization of society, for the development of civil society, for the rooting of the idea of ​​human rights. Therefore, the power elites established an indivisible power there. These elites reject the universal principles of respect for human dignity and humanism. It happens that even the most minimal standards are not met, and any criticism is perceived as an encroachment on state sovereignty and interference in internal affairs.

Secondly, citing some economic growth in countries such as China, Russia or Belarus, authoritarian rulers around the world claim that it is possible to modernize economies without political pluralism, democracy and respect for human rights. They are unwilling to share power with a society that is exposed to mass propaganda from the state-monopolized media. For example, the economic difficulties caused by the problems of the transition to a market economy in many post-Soviet states were mistakenly interpreted as the result of the first democratic transformations. This led to the fact that some of the people consciously chose and continue to support non-democratic methods of governing the country.

Thirdly, states that acted as defenders of human rights and democracy on the planet, sometimes, unfortunately, gave examples of inconsistency in their actions and deviations from their own fundamental principles. Actions such as the war in Iraq, the existence of prisons with unacceptable conditions for holding prisoners, the large-scale development of trade relations with clearly undemocratic countries, have created the basis for accusations of double standards and selective application of norms on the part of Western democracies. When human rights are violated by the governments of the countries most active in upholding them, then authoritarian rulers have a convenient excuse to completely disregard and ignore generally accepted standards.

Modern democracy

Modern Western political scientists do not consider democracy as the rule of the people, which determines the essence of the implemented state policy. Democracy, in their opinion, is a system of government that takes into account the will of the people, which is expressed at the time of elections of the ruling elite.

Domestic political science solves this issue differently. According to her, the basic principles of democracy are:

    popular sovereignty, that is. the people are the primary carriers of power; all power comes from the people and is delegated to them;

    free elections of representatives to government bodies for a limited period;

    political pluralism;

    guaranteed access of all social groups to political institutions;

    control of representative institutions over the work of the government;

    elimination of political privileges for certain social groups and categories of citizens, institutions and governing bodies.

Principles of Democracy:

    the principle of popular sovereignty, according to which the people are the only source of supreme political power in a democracy

    free elections for representatives of government at all levels, including the right to remove from power those who have not justified the confidence of voters

    participation of citizens in the management of state affairs using the mechanisms of both direct (direct) democracy and representative (mediated) democracy

    constitutionalism, which ensures the rational and legal nature of the organization and functioning of the state and the equality of all before the law

    the presence of opposition, which is guaranteed the right to legal political activity and the right to replace in power, following the results of new elections, the old ruling majority

    the principle of separation of powers, in accordance with which one power restrains the other, excluding the possibility of usurpation of the full power of one of them.

Depending on how the people participate in government, who and how directly performs power functions, democracy is divided into:

  1. personable.

Direct democracy

Direct democracy- This is the direct participation of citizens in the preparation, discussion and decision-making. This form of participation dominated in ancient democracies. Now it is possible in small settlements, communities, at enterprises, etc. when solving issues that do not require high qualifications. Plebiscite democracy is a kind of direct democracy, which also implies the direct expression of the will of the people. However, here the influence of citizens on the processes of government is limited. They can vote only to approve or reject a draft law or other decision that has been prepared by the government, a party or an initiative group. This form of democracy allows for the possibility of manipulating the will of citizens with the help of ambiguous wording of questions put to the vote.

Representative democracyRepresentative democracy- the leading form of political participation of citizens in modern political systems. Its essence is the indirect participation of subjects in decision-making. Citizens elect their representatives to the authorities, who are called upon to express their interests, to issue laws and give orders on their behalf. This form of democracy is necessary in the context of huge social systems and the complexity of the decisions made. For the democratic life of society, it is important not only who rules, but also how it rules, how the system of government is organized. These issues are determined by the country's constitution, which is perceived by many people as a symbol of democracy.

The common features of democracy as a modern constitutional order and mode of functioning of the political system are:

    Recognition of the people as the source of power in the state. The power of the people is expressed in the fact that it forms state power through elections and participates in its implementation directly (through referendums, local self-government, and also, mainly, through representative bodies elected by it); - periodic election and rotation of central and local government bodies, their accountability to voters;

    Proclamation and real provision of human and civil rights and freedoms. Of particular importance for the full functioning of a democratic political system is the guarantee of the rights of citizens to participate in government - electoral rights, the right to create political parties and other associations, freedom of speech, opinion, the right to information, etc .;

    Making decisions by the majority and submission of the minority to the majority in their implementation;

    Democratic control of society over the power structures used only for their intended purpose and strictly within the framework of the laws;

    Dominance of methods of persuasion, agreement, compromise; rejection of methods of violence, coercion, suppression;

    Real implementation of the principles of the rule of law, including the principle of separation of powers.

Many authors point to democratization (English: democratisation) as a development trend in the modern world. At the same time, the concept itself in political science is used mainly in two meanings. The democratization of the world, firstly, means the growth of the number of democratic states; secondly, the strengthening and development of democratic institutions and procedures in various countries. The latter is of particular importance for states that are in the process of transition to building a democratic state, i.e. democratic transit. G. O'Donnel and Ph. Schmitter distinguish the following stages in the most democratic transition: liberalization, democratization and consolidation.
And yet in world politics, in contrast to political science, the concept of "democratization" is often used in the first meaning, i.e. as an increase in the number of democracies. True, another understanding of the democratization of the modern world is also possible - as an expansion of the circle of participants in international interaction. However, this approach is not yet well-established in world politics.

There are different views as well as procedures for assessing which countries can be considered democratic. The controversy is often caused by states that are "in a borderline state" in which a number of signs of democratic development are present, while others are absent. Nevertheless, in its most general form, according to the data of the American researcher D. Caldwell, in 1941 it was possible to consider about 25% of states as democratic, and in 1996 their number had already reached 40%. If we take into account the countries that are in the process of democratic transition, then this figure; according to the American institute Freedom House, which analyzes the development of democracies in the world, today it can reach about 75%. American researcher and editor-in-chief of Foreign! Affairs ”FZakaria writes that currently 118 countries of the world are democratic. In any case, no matter what specific numbers will be taken as a basis, almost all authors agree on the fact that the number of democratic countries in the world is increasing.

The emergence of democratic states in the world was nonlinear. S. Huntington (5. Huntington) in 1991 published an article in the Journal of Democracy entitled "Democracy's Third Wave", as well as a book with a similar title "The third wave of democratization at the end of the XX century. "(The Third Wave: Democratization in the Late of Twentieth Century), highlighting the periods in world history associated with the development of democratic processes (waves of democratization), and a kind of democratic" kickbacks. "Some authors, for example, R. Dix (R. Dix ), starting from specific events, indicate somewhat different dates for the development of waves of democratization than S. Huntington. Or the events of late 1989 - early 1991 in Eastern Europe are singled out as a separate, fourth, "wave"

The following waves, or stages, of democratization can be distinguished in history.

The first wave of democratization is the longest. It actually lasts a century and dates back to S. Huntington in 1820-1920. During this "wave" more than 20 democratic states were formed (29 - according to S. Huntinggon and 21 - according to R. Dix). These countries were characterized by parliamentary and party systems, broad electoral rights. The first "wave" was followed by a "rollback" from the main path of democratic development, which lasted from the second half of the 1920s to the first half of the 1940s. It is associated with the coming to power of fascism in a number of countries around the world.

The second "wave" (mid-1940s - early 1960s) was caused by the defeat of fascism in World War II and the collapse of the colonial system. After it comes, according to S. Huntington, a new regressive "wave" during which a number of military and authoritarian regimes are formed (including in 1967 in Greece and in 1973 in Chile). In general, the "second rollback" lasts from the early 1960s to the early 1970s.

Finally, a new, third, “wave” begins in the first half of the 1970s. Democratic processes cover Western Europe (Greece - 1974, Portugal - 1975, Spain - 1977); Latin America (Dominican Republic - 1975, Honduras - 1982, Brazil - 1985, Peru - 1988, Chile - 1990, etc.); Asia (Turkey - 1988, Philippines - 1986, South Korea - 1988); Eastern Europe (Hungary - 1989, Czechoslovakia - 1989, Poland - 1989, Bulgaria - 1989, Russia - 1991 and others); Africa (South Africa held its first general elections in 1994).

What caused the processes of democratization? in political science, usually two groups of factors or variables are considered: ♦ structural (independent variables) - the level of economic and social development, social-class processes, values ​​prevailing in society, etc.; ♦ procedural (dependent variables) - decisions made, personal characteristics of politicians, etc.

A detailed analysis of these two groups of factors is carried out by the domestic researcher A. Yu. Melville. Having modified the model of "funnel of causality", which was proposed by the American author D. Campbell and his colleagues for the analysis of voter behavior, he used it to study the problems of transit. At the same time, in the very process of democratic transition, A. Yu. Melville distinguishes two phases - the establishment and consolidation of democracy. Further, when studying the factors influencing the establishment of democracy, he proposes "a gradual transition from a predominantly structural to a predominantly procedural analysis", and when examining the second phase, a return path "in analytics, i.e. from micro to macro factors ”.

In political science, the external environment, i.e. tendencies of world development are usually considered as one of the structural variables of the democratization process: how much it contributes (or not) to this process. However, in the modern world, with an ever closer intertwining of foreign and domestic policies, the international environment can act as both a structural and a procedural variable. And the latter seems to be becoming more and more significant. The adoption of decisions (and this is a procedural variable) by the world community in relation to a particular country can lead to the development of democratic processes in it. Thus, the UN has repeatedly adopted resolutions regarding the apartheid regime in South Africa, as well as decisions on sanctions, which was a factor influencing the country's abandonment of the apartheid policy and the holding of democratic elections in 1994.

The end of the 20th century, which coincided with the third “wave” of democratization, which is perhaps especially turbulent in terms of the number of states and the degree of their involvement in democratic processes, brought with it other trends in world development - globalization and world integration. All these processes reinforce each other. Adherence to democratic principles and traditions for an increasing number of participants is a kind of positive example. To remain outside the global "democratic club" in the modern globalizing world means to be a kind of "outcast" - outside the system, outside of "modernity." This encourages more and more states to focus on democratic values.

The leaders of states deliberately go to the denial of the democratic path of development, thereby opposing their country to the rest of the world. In this context, the process of democratic transformations at the end of the 20th century can be viewed precisely as a tendency j of the political development of the world, in the implementation of which it is more and more important; are not endogenous (internal) factors (level of socio-economic development, political processes in society, etc.), but exogenous in relation to a given state, i.e. international environment. It is she who encourages democratic change.

The democratization of the end of the 20th century gave F. Fukuyama the basis to talk about the end of history. In the sense that in historical development, humanity has made its choice in favor of democratic development. His article has been criticized more than once. Objections were raised by such provisions as the forecast of the end of conflicts in the world in connection with the end of the East-West ideological confrontation, the linearity and one-vector of historical development, etc. However, the thesis of the process of democratization as a general trend, perhaps, was least disputed. Indeed, if at the beginning of the XX century. a relatively small number of states could be considered as democratic, and they themselves did not always assume the full completeness of electoral and other rights (in a number of states the rights of women and national minorities were limited, a fairly high property qualification was introduced, etc.) At the beginning of the 21st century, these problems turned out to be, if not resolved, then solvable.

It should be emphasized, however, that democratization is not an unambiguous and progressive process. This appeared with particular clarity as a result of the last "wave" of democratization, when illiberal democracies, hybrid regimes, and imitation democracies began to form. Their essence lies in the fact that democratic institutions and procedures in a number of states are used only as; an external form that sometimes serves to cover up mechanisms for the implementation of power that are essentially undemocratic. Perhaps the most widely used term is "illiberal democracies" thanks to the work of F. Zakaria, published in 1997 in the journal Foreign * Affairs. F. Zakaria proceeds from the statement of the American diplomat R. Holbrooke, who in September 1996 proposed to imagine that a candidate who openly professes racist, fascist or separatist views and opposes a peaceful solution wins in a free democratic election in the country. the issue, in particular, on Yugoslavia. In fact, this leader comes to power in a democratic way, but he professes clearly undemocratic views and pursues an appropriate policy. F. Zakaria continues this logic of reasoning and draws attention to the fact that the emergence of so-called illiberal democracies is possible, i.e. those who took only the external trappings of democratic transformations. Moreover, the number of such countries, he writes, is increasing. In 1990, there were 22% of the total number of democratic states, and in 1997 - already 35%.

21. International practice of "forced democratization"

The expansion of democracy took place against the background of the adoption of the policy of "forced democratization". We are talking about a set of measures to limit the sovereignty of a certain country for the sake of establishing a liberal-democratic system in it.

This approach relied on diplomatic pressure, imposition of sanctions, support for the opposition, and international isolation of the relevant regime. By the beginning of the 21st century, this strategy began to allow for the use of force.

The first experience of "forced democratization" was the reorganization of the German political system. At the 1945 Potsdam Conference, the Allies proclaimed a policy of denazification, democratization, demilitarization and decartelization of the country. Germany was stripped of its sovereignty and divided into zones of occupation. In 1946, the Nuremberg Trials were held, which condemned the criminal plans of the National Socialist German Workers Party (NSDAP), the crimes of the highest officials of the Reich, the Wehrmacht and the SS, as well as Nazi ideology itself. At the request of the Western allies in the new constitution of the Federal Republic of Germany, basic civil liberties were fixed. In 1949, elections to the Bundestag were held in the western zone of occupation, after which the Federal Republic of Germany was created.

The situation around Japan developed more complicatedly. In 1947, the headquarters of the American occupation forces under the leadership of General Douglas MacArthur made sweeping amendments to the Japanese constitution of 1889, which completely changed its character. In Japan, a parliamentary democracy regime was established, the education system was liberalized and the large zaibatsu companies that served as the basis for military production were liquidated. However, the monarchy was retained in Japan.

Until now, the "victorious powers" maintain the regime of partial limitation of the sovereignty of Germany and Japan. The Moscow Treaty of 1990 removed the remnants of its occupation status from Germany, but retained the bans on holding referendums on military and political issues, the requirement for the withdrawal of all foreign troops, foreign policy decisions without consulting the "victorious powers" and the development of a number of components of the armed forces.

The 1947 Constitution preserves Japan's renunciation of war as the nation's sovereign right. The 1951 and 1960 US-Japan security treaties provide for the permanent presence of US troops on Japanese soil. These restrictions are intended to guarantee the preservation of the democratic vector of development in Germany and Japan.

The racist regime of South Africa has become the target of "forced democratization". Since the late 1940s, the apartheid regime has formed in South Africa - a system of different political rights among racial communities. Criticism of apartheid led to South Africa's withdrawal from the British Commonwealth in 1961. In 1973, the UN General Assembly adopted the International Convention on the Suppression and Punishment of the Crime of Apartheid. The document allowed for the possibility of imposing sanctions by each UN member state against South Africa in order to induce it to abandon the policy of apartheid. In the late 1980s, the United States began to criticize Pretoria. This prompted President Ferdinand de Klerk (1989-1994) to embark on democratic reforms: in 1994, a new South African constitution was adopted, abolishing apartheid.

The regime in Southern Rhodesia was subjected to more severe pressure. In 1965, the white minority of this British colony declared independence and, like South Africa, established a system of racial segregation. But the countries of the British Commonwealth did not recognize the independence of Southern Rhodesia and imposed economic sanctions against it. With the mediation of Britain, the Ian Smith regime and the "moderate" opposition entered into an interim agreement in 1978, under which the country held elections on quotas for white and non-white populations. In 1979, the British Parliament confirmed the colonial status of Southern Rhodesia and established a transitional regime in the country. Power passed to British Governor Arthur Soums, and after the general elections in 1980 - to the government led by the leader of the African National Liberation Army, Robert Mugabe. This country is now called Zimbabwe.

After the collapse of the USSR, the practice of "forced democratization" became more widespread. Latin America has become a testing ground for testing the “new interventionism”. In 1989, the United States carried out an operation in Panama to overthrow the dictatorship of Manuel Noriega. In 1994, Washington landed troops in Haiti with the aim of overthrowing the junta led by General Raul Sedra and returning President Jean-Bertrand Aristide, who was ousted in 1991. The United States motivated its actions by the interconnection of the regimes in Panama and Haiti with the Colombian drug mafia and the need to build full-fledged state institutions in these countries. The new governments pursued policies of economic liberalization, privatization and democratic elections.

Rwanda has also become the target of this policy. After the 1994 conflict, the International Crimes Tribunal in Rwanda began to operate on the basis of UN Security Council Resolution No. 1165. Its tasks included investigating crimes, prosecuting those responsible for acts of genocide, promoting reconciliation between the Hutu and Tutsi peoples, and "restoring justice and law to Rwanda." The latter meant that the UN indirectly assumed the authority to restore peace in the country and transform its political system. Under UN pressure, the victorious Rwandan Tutsi Patriotic Front established a presidential republic through democratic elections.

The democratization of Liberia developed according to a different scheme. Since 1989, there has been a civil war between the forces of the National Patriotic Front led by Charles Taylor, the anarchist group of Yedu Johnson and the government forces of Samuel Doe. In 1996, the countries of the Economic Community of West African Countries (ECOWAS) introduced the ECOMOG peacekeeping force into the country, with logistical assistance from the United States. However, Charles Taylor won the presidential election in 1997. This led to the outbreak of the second civil war, 1998-2003, in which Guinea and the United States succeeded in overthrowing him. The 2005 presidential election was won by Ellen Johnson Sirleaf, a former World Bank employee and finance minister in the Taylor government. The policy of democratization of Liberia began to be carried out based on the recommendations of the UN and international financial institutions.

A similar pattern has been applied to Sierra Leone. The conflict in this country was imported from Liberia. In 1997, the ECOMOG peacekeeping force was brought into the country and took part in hostilities. In 1999, a UN peacekeeping mission was deployed, the backbone of which was made up of British troops. With the mediation of the UN and ECOWAS, the warring parties concluded a peace treaty in 2000. Sierra Leone returned to the pre-war regime of a presidential republic and embarked on a policy of economic liberalization.

The strategy of "forced democratization" was also used during the conflicts in the Balkans. NATO countries conducted operations against the Bosnian Serbs (1995) and Yugoslavia (1999) under the pretext of ending "humanitarian disasters" in Bosnia and Kosovo. These actions created the conditions for a change of government in the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia. At the end of the 1990s, the activity of the democratic opposition intensified in the country, which led to a political crisis during the 2000 presidential elections. During it, the EU countries and the United States supported the leader of the Democratic Opposition of Serbia Vojislav Kostunica. His campaign commitments included institutional reforms, anti-corruption, economic issues and EU integration. The policy of “democratizing” Yugoslavia was based, therefore, on a combination of methods of force and diplomatic support of the internal opposition.

A different algorithm was implemented in Macedonia. In 2001, a conflict broke out between the Macedonian government and the Albanian population of the northwest of the country. On 12 August 2001, the Ohrid Agreements were signed with the mediation of NATO and the EU. The Macedonian government promised to grant the Albanians legal and cultural autonomy, and the Albanian formations to disarm under NATO control. To fulfill the agreements in Macedonia, a NATO peacekeeping operation was carried out in 2001-2002. Since 2003, it has been replaced by the EU Police Mission. Western countries presented these events as the democratization of the political system of Macedonia - a stage of preparation for its future accession to NATO and the EU.

Events in the Balkans sparked a discussion about the admissibility of the use of force for the "forced democratization" of other states. At the NATO Washington Summit on April 23-25, 1999, the thesis on the moral justification of "humanitarian intervention" was officially adopted. Opponents objected that such actions increase the potential for conflict in interstate relations. The strategy of "forced democratization" could, according to opponents, develop into a full-scale armed conflict. Therefore, the ideas of resistance to projects of "forced democratization" were reflected in the Russian-Chinese communique (1997) and the "big" treaty between Russia and the PRC (2001).

After the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, the United States built a strategy of "forced democratization" into the context of the global anti-terrorist operation. It was about the forced creation of democratic institutions on the territory of countries freed from the power of transnational terrorist networks. In 2002, the George W. Bush administration announced the possibility of overthrowing "dictatorial regimes" suspected of collaborating with terrorism and creating weapons of mass destruction (WMD). The strategy of "forced democratization" has taken openly forceful forms.

Afghanistan has become the testing ground for its updated edition. After the anti-Taliban operation in the fall of 2001, the United States tried to build a capable state here. In December 2001, an international conference of all conflicting parties was held in Bonn (Germany) with the participation of the former king Zahir Shah. It was decided to create an interim government headed by Hamid Karzai. In 2004, the country adopted a new constitution that proclaimed Afghanistan a democratic republic with a presidential form of government. Control over the activities of the new institutions is carried out by the peacekeeping forces operating since 2003 in the format of a NATO special operation. In 2006, the North Atlantic Alliance also created special "rapid response teams" designed to help the government of H. Karzai regain control over the "field commanders".

In 2002, the Bush administration announced a more ambitious project - the democratization of the "Greater Middle East". The goal of this policy was to forcibly build relatively stable democratic systems in the Middle East countries. Washington also believed that the implementation of the "Greater Middle East" project would solve a number of strategically important problems for the United States - from weakening radical Islamist movements to gaining access to alternative sources of energy to Saudi Arabia.

The implementation of these measures turned out to be difficult due to the miscalculations of the United States and the socio-cultural specifics of the countries of the Middle East. Attempts to forcibly export democracy led to the victory of radical Islamist movements. The "Cedar Revolution" in Lebanon and the withdrawal of Syrian troops from that country in 2005 led to the strengthening of the position of the Hezbollah movement and the Second Lebanese War of 2006. The radical Islamist movement Hamas won the elections in the Palestinian Authority on March 17, 2006. This led to the civil war in the Palestinian territories and the Israeli military operation in the Gaza Strip in 2008-2009.

The biggest setback was the experience of the "forced democratization" of Iraq. There were no influential forces in the country ready to support American policy. Sunni communities were associated with the nomenclature of the former ruling Baath party and perceived the coalition forces as a threat to their interests. Among the Iraqi Shiites, the role of radicals has grown, focusing on building their own version of an "Islamic state" with the help of Iran. Kurdish leaders have achieved broad autonomy for Kurdistan and control over energy export revenues. The result of these processes was a series of armed conflicts between the coalition forces, Sunnis and Shiites, as well as the aggravation of contradictions between Iraqi Kurdistan and Turkey. Washington managed to partially normalize the situation in 2007, when the United States switched to a policy of maneuvering between the interests of various clans and communities.

There was no success in the policy of accelerated democratization of Pakistan. The United States provided assistance to the Pervez Musharraf regime as part of the global anti-terrorist coalition. But Washington demanded that he remove radical Islamists from government bodies, end martial law and hold democratic elections. The results of the 2002 and 2008 elections, however, were the strengthening of the radical Islamic opposition. In the northwest of the country, the Taliban fleeing Afghanistan declared their quasi-state and the Pakistani army suffered a series of serious defeats. 2008 was a time of a sharp aggravation of the situation in Pakistan and the forced resignation of P. Musharraf. Washington started talking about the possibility of conducting an independent operation in Pakistan.

The strategy of "forced democratization" caused serious changes in social and political thought in the theory of liberal democracy. In the early years of the 21st century, American neoconservatives transformed the concept of a "global civil society" into the doctrine of a "democratic empire."

“Global civil society” was based on the priority of liberal-democratic values ​​over national-state ones. However, in the new world, the interests of spreading these values ​​turned out to be identical with the national interests of the United States and, in part, the EU countries.

"Democratic empire" began to be presented as a community of liberal-democratic countries, which are united by American leadership, common institutions and project power outside their territories. American publicists compared it with the empires of Antiquity (primarily Roman), which did not always have a rigid hierarchical structure, but were based on the perception of themselves as a "civil society" opposed to the "barbarian world".

The idea of ​​a "democratic empire" has caused skepticism among supporters of the policy of expanding democracy by non-violent methods. The rejection of this doctrine was especially harsh in the old EU members. Less harsh - in Russia and the states of Eastern Europe. Most controversialists focused on the expansionist policy of the George W. Bush administration and the opposition of the United States to its NATO allies. The problem, however, went deeper. The transition to the strategy of “forced democratization” has deprived the theory of liberal democracy of its most attractive component: the perception of democratization processes as the spread of the “zone of peace”.

22. The theory of "democratic peace" and international reality

The idea of ​​a “democratic peace” became popular among international researchers in the mid-1990s: democracies do not enter into armed confrontation with each other and resolve existing contradictions exclusively by peaceful means. In the West, this postulate has generated a stream of literature and firmly established itself among the liberal establishment. Through the mouth of the American political scientist Jack Levy, supporters of this view even ventured to declare that the "democratic peace" hypothesis actually acquired the status of law in the social sciences. As a result of massive efforts to popularize it (to which F. Fukuyama also had a hand), the theory of "democratic peace" (TDM) has become one of the most important tenets of the doctrine of liberal interventionism in the United States. In 1994, President B. Clinton even used its provisions in his annual message to the US Congress to formally substantiate the policy of spreading democracy.

This theory also made a considerable impression on Russian researchers, which was reflected in the appearance of a number of enthusiastic publications. The postulates of this concept began to circulate in the circles of university youth and the media. Enthusiasm for the hypothesis of a "democratic peace" outside of Russia and within Russia itself can give the impression of the universal significance of this postulate in all international situations and any historical epochs. It is worth drawing attention to the importance of creative perception of this theory, which may or may not work in different sociocultural settings and contexts.

The experience of “mechanistic” borrowing and reproduction of Western theories, which is available in Russian social science, partly prompts one to be cautious. In the 1990s, an attempt to “directly” apply the theory of “shock therapy” in Russia for the transition to a market economy put the country on the brink of a social cataclysm and eventually ended with the phasing out of the idea of ​​“shock treatment” in Russian conditions.

Another example of an attempt to apply borrowed theorizations in Russia was transitology, which was popular in our country in the mid-1990s. Having formed on the basis of the experience of transformation of dictatorial regimes of Ibero-American origin, it was based on the initially sound ideas and real experience of Western societies. Nevertheless, this concept required very significant meaningful adaptations to local conditions, which determined the course of transitional political processes in Russia and the CIS countries according to a significantly different logic and other trajectories than was typical for Latin America, South or Central-Eastern Europe.

It is worth noting that the number of supporters of a cautious attitude towards TDM is becoming noticeably more numerous among foreign scientists belonging to various research areas. In the West, the main critical postulates have been formulated, prompting to seriously think about what the heuristic potential of TDM really is. To what extent can the application of this concept in analysis enrich it and to what extent guide the researcher down a dead end route?

It is advisable to analyze the thesis of a "democratic peace" from a constructivist standpoint. This approach is promising, since it (in the logic of constructivism) allows one to see the reality of the democratic world - not just given once and for all, but as socially constructed and socially rooted.

Why don't democracies, as the TDM adherents argue, fight each other? Despite the growing circle of supporters of this theory, there is still no agreement on the reasons for the peacefulness of democracies. Indeed, in the 2000s, most researchers began to associate the very concept of “democracy” with such procedural (to a significant extent formal) signs such as the election of the head of state and the multiparty political system. New terms have appeared - "formal democracy", "illiberal democracy". Cultural-normative and institutional explanations of the "democratic world" have emerged and are developing.

Proponents of the cultural-normative approach believe that over time democracies develop norms of mutual trust and mutual respect that determine their decision-making processes in relation to each other.

Institutionalists talk about the constraints and constraints that are integral to democratic decision-making. At the same time, some representatives of institutionalism emphasize the role of public opinion, which, under certain circumstances, is capable of restraining the possible aggressive tendencies of politicians. Others rely on political parties and interest groups that perform similar counterbalancing functions to the tendency to resolve international issues by force of arms. Still others insist that the very procedure for making a decision in a democratic society - the public competition and openness of this process - warns against extremes and sets the leaders of states to compromise.

Not everyone shares the optimism of these groups of theorists. In international relations, in addition to supporters of the liberal paradigm, many approaches are developing that see world processes from different angles. Among the critics of the "democratic peace" thesis, realists are especially active - supporters of understanding international relations from the standpoint of the struggle for power, security and the preservation of national independence.

Realistic reasoning is built from the standpoint of eternity and immutability of the basic principles of interstate relations - the desire of states to increase their power in an unsafe world, the inevitability of rivalry, the need to observe the principle of the balance of power between the great powers. The main thing for the representatives of this approach is not the system of government - authoritarianism or democracy, but the external security conditions in which the state exists. For realists, the state of peace is not so much the result of a democratic culture or a system of checks and balances, but rather a consequence of the existence of strong international alliances and the combined potential to deter potential aggressors.

Realists criticize TDM along two main lines.

First, they question the very empirical basis on the basis of which the thesis about the peacefulness of democracies in relation to each other was formulated. Realists draw attention to the friction that existed in the practice of developed democracies in the West and almost led to armed clashes. Analyzing the diplomatic crises of 1861-1923 in relations between the leading Western states, Christopher Lane showed that in a number of cases Great Britain, France, Germany and the United States almost slipped into armed confrontation. At least each of them was ready to use force, and conflicts were not resolved for reasons of cultural, normative or institutional nature.

It is important that democratic states, if it was beneficial to them for economic or military reasons, did not hesitate to destabilize some democratic regimes. The era of bipolar confrontation is full of examples when a democratic state represented by the United States contributed to the armed overthrow of left-wing democratic regimes in order to contain Soviet influence. It was in this way that completely legitimate and democratically elected governments were overthrown in Chile (1973), Iran (early 1950s) or Indonesia (mid 1960s). The United States behaved in a similar way in Latin America, where all democratic regimes were clearly subdivided into pro-American and potentially anti-American, with the first, as a rule, right-wing authoritarian governments, and the second, left-democratic ones. It is known that the United States most often preferred to support the former.

Another point of criticism of the realists is related to the analysis of the behavior of "young democracies" - states in the process of strengthening newly created democratic institutions. Being democratic according to formal criteria (electivity, multiparty system), such countries do not always show peacefulness. On the contrary, they behave more aggressively than stable authoritarian regimes. The bloody clashes in the 1990s between Croatia and Serbia and Bosnia, Armenia and Azerbaijan became possible, despite the “democratizing” nature of all these states. Without excluding the possibility of mature democracies' natural love of peace, realist researchers believe that the democratization of weak young states almost inevitably gives rise to militant nationalism, which leads to aggressiveness and war.

Even more interesting is another observation of the realists. Not only that, democracies can be aggressive towards democratic states. Nondemocratic states can be quite peaceful. History provides examples when authoritarian leaders - for example, in the socialist countries of the second half of the last century - very consistently pursued a line aimed at avoiding wars with neighbors, often agreeing for this to painful territorial decisions for themselves (Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, Yugoslavia, Czechoslovakia , Poland in the late 1940s). Authoritarian leaders tightly controlled the potential chauvinistic impulses of society, showing in this sense an almost exemplary responsibility and peacefulness.

The most important line of criticism of realists against TDM is the refutation of its very logic. It is noted that even if democracies demonstrate peacefulness, this is by no means due to their inherent normative and institutional constraints. Most likely, the realists insist, their behavior should be explained by specific military-strategic circumstances. In the history of democracy, they have often violated the norms of liberal peacefulness, guided by the search for economic benefits or the desire to obtain additional guarantees for national security. In this sense, wars in North America or Africa for colonies and spheres of influence between Great Britain and France during the years of imperial greatness of the latter are quite characteristic. Moreover, "mutual trust and respect" between the two democratic powers turned out to be a chimera as soon as it came to achieving military-strategic goals. To suppress militaristic impulses, the democratic mechanisms of checks and balances did not work.