Zhirinovsky Zhmet, the Communists are lagging behind. New ratings of parties before the election showed an increase in the support of United Russia

A five-percent barrier for passing to the State Duma must overcome four parties.

Following the survey conducted on 10 and 11/11 (3200 respondents took part)) Party of the LDPR overtook the communists. She is now supported by 12.6% of voters. Communists are 5.2% behind. Their rating is 7.4%. In June, for comparison, it was 9.5%. Rating "Fair Russia" reached 6.3%.

Party "United Russia" continues to be stably leading. A week before the federal elections to the State Duma, the level of declared party support increased from 39.3% and is 41.1%. The rating of the Russian Party of Pensioners for Justice increased from 1.6% to 2.4%, "Motherland" - from 0.8% to 1.1%. The level of confidence of the growth of growth and "apple" is 0.8% and 1.1%, respectively.

- As I approached the voting day, the inter-party competition is always sharpened, and the ruling party is almost primarily under the blow. Her rating has decreased in three months from 45 to 41% of the votes, but the result of the nearest pursuer is four times lower. In recent days, the trend to the decline was stopped and the rating again grew, probably, thanks to the effective emphasis on the party of his relationship with the president. Another important trend of recent weeks is the strengthening of the LDPR, which still confidently claims to second place. The CPRF campaign does not lead to an increase in the ranking of the party, but the base electorate of the Communist Party is quite unmobilized. The rating of "Fair Russia" is volatile due to the instability of the mood of the electorate of the party: this is one of the main parties of the "second selection", but the confidence of her supporters in the finality of its choice is small. Of the new parties, the strongest results show the Russian Party of Pensioners "For Social Justice" (2%). However, the rating can not be equivalent to the forecast - and in the 2016 campaign this rule works with a special force, "says Valery Fedorov's general director of VTsiom.

Alla Serebryakova

According to the measurements of the Foundation "Public Opinion" and the WTCIOM, three parties are held confidently in Parliament - "United Russia", LDPR and the Communist Party. "Fair Russia" is barely gaining the necessary 5% of the vote, the rest of the race participants do not overcome the passage barrier.

According to the Foundation "Public Opinion" (FOM), 41% of voters are ready to vote for "United Russia", for the LDPR - 11%, for the Communist Party - 9%. "Fair Russia" balances on the verge of passing into a new convening of the Lower Chamber, in September its rating is fixed at a critical mark of 4%. According to 1% of the votes, "Apple", "Rodina" and the Russian Party of Pensioners for Justice are gaining. The ranking of the rest of the players is close to zero.

The data of the VTsIOM differ insignificant: "EP" - 39.3%, the LDPR - 10.4%, at the Communist Party of the Communist Party - 8.7%, from "Fair Russia" - 5.3%. For the party of pensioners are ready to vote 1.6%, for the "apple" - 1.1%. The remainder rating is below the percentage.

Sociologists recorded a noticeable increase in the number of undefined choice

Compared to mid-August, sociologists record a slight decrease in the rating of United Russia, but in general, the party retains leading positions with a noticeable margin from the rest of the race. As for super-folds, this time is not. "If" United Russia "drops 40-44%, it will be a good result if 44-48% is very good," said the "RG" source close to the presidential administration.

He also drew attention to the grown rating of the LDPR - a couple of percent a couple of percent ahead of the Communists, and this trend is observed since the beginning of the election campaign in June. "At the current elections, the LDPR turns into a second selection party - in 2011," Fair Russia "played this role," the source close to the Kremlin was noted. In addition, he said, 10 non-Parliamentary parties participating in the elections to be touched by approximately 15 % votes.

On the eve of the voting day, sociologists recorded a noticeable increase in the number of undefined choice. So, according to VTsIOM, in mid-August, only 10% of voters were recognized that they do not know who to vote for. In early September, almost 15% of citizens said about it. According to FOM, 16% of Russians did not solve which batch to give preference.

According to experts, the voices of undefined and fluctuating citizens on September 18 can add points to the Duma parties and, above all, the parliamentary opposition, including "fair Russia", and then it will be able to overcome the passage barrier. On the hand of the opposition and the agenda itself, since the topics that are beneficial to it are pensions, benefits, medicine, housing and public utilities, including overhauls. The parties use this, but at the same time they bypass the key question - where to take money to the implementation of social promises, experts note.

The federal appearance is predicted at 54%. In the Kremlin protrude to ensure that the process of will is natural. "There is no desire to cut the turnout and there is no desire to raise it at any cost," explained the source in the up.

The All-Russian Express survey as part of the order of the WTCIOM was held on August 14 and on September 4, by personal interviews at the house of respondents, it was attended by 1600 people from 42 regions, the statistical error does not exceed 3.4%. The Fomnibus survey as part of the order of the FOM was conducted on September 3-4 in 73 subjects of the Russian Federation by interviewing the place of residence of 3,000 respondents, the statistical error does not exceed 3.6%.

Centralism

Whose lists have changed

From the federal list of candidates for deputies of the State Duma of the seventh convocation, nominated by the political party "The Political Party" Civil Platform "of the candidate for deputies Khubiyev k.kh.

From the federal list of candidates for deputies of the State Duma of the seventh convocation, nominated by the political party "The Political Party" Communist Party of the Russian Federation "of the candidate for deputies of the Dzuceva I.D.

A week before the elections, VTsIOM gave the second place of LDPR. The gap with the Communist Party of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation increased and is 5%. Such polls sociologists psychologically pressing voters, the expert believes

Leader of the Party LDPR Vladimir Zhirinovsky (Photo: Sergey Fadichev / Tass)

Strengthening before elections

The LDPR in the election ranking was entrenched in the second position, increasing the separation from the running third Communist Party, on Monday. This is the last day when sociological services can publish measurements of public opinion before the election of the State Duma.

According to the WTCiOM survey conducted on September 10-11 (combined data of apartment and cati polls, the size of the sample - 3200 people), the Rating of the LDPR is 12.6% (from all respondents). In early September, the LDPR was ready to vote for 2% less respondents. This is the highest of the party since the beginning of the election campaign (she gained 10.3% in June).

The CPRF ranks third with the result of 7.4%, although 8.7% of Russians were ready to vote on September 3-4 of the Communists. On the eve of the election of the WTCIOM, published the lowest result of the Communists from the beginning of the campaign.

"An important trend of the last weeks is the strengthening of the LDPR, which still confidently claims to second place," the general director of Valery Fedorov commented in a press release. According to him, the CPRF campaign does not lead to an increase in the ranking of the party, but the base electorate of the Communist Party is quite unmobilized.

"United Russia" strengthened its position on the finish and "confidently leads in the election race" (41.1%), the press release says. In the previous survey, United Russia received 2% less - only 39.3%.

The ranking of the government party decreased in three months from 45 to 41% of the votes, resembles Fedorov. "In the last days, the trend to the decline was stopped and the rating again grew, it is likely to thanks to the effective emphasis on the party of his relationship with the president," the head of the WTCIOM believes.

The chances of maintaining a fraction in the new composition of the State Duma also has "Fair Russia", they record sociologists. According to the WTPIOM, the party support for the week has grown from 5.3 to 6.3%. In general, the rating of Esra is unstable, Fedorov notes.

The Fund "Public Opinion" LDPR: According to him, on September 4, 11% of respondents are ready to vote for the LDPR, while for the Communist Party of the Communist Party.

According to the last survey of the Levada Center, held at the end of August, the second place held the Communist Party of the Russian Federation with 15%, overtaking the LDPR by 1%. Since June, LDPR has not overtook the communists, fixed the Levada Center.

Comfortable party

The interlocutors of RBC in the Kremlin all recent months to raise the Ratage of LDPR. True, they assumed that on the election day, the elderly electorate of the Communist Party of the Communist Party will demonstrate greater discipline and mobilization than the young LDPR electorate, and eventually the communists will still take second place.

Last Thursday that the LDPR becomes the "second selection party" and under certain conditions can overturn the Communist Party of the Communist Party, the first deputy head of the Presidential Administration Vyacheslav Volodin said at a meeting with leading political scientists. He connected this with the fact that the leader of the party Vladimir Zhirinovsky seriously changed the approach to the conduct of the campaign. "There was incatience, conflicts, while he is in the agenda of the state," the Kremlin official noticed.

The experts participating in the event agreed with the Kremlin official, but also brought their arguments. The President of Political Technologies Center Igor Bunin explained the tendency because part of the liberal voters do not want to go against power and public opinion, so they choose the LDPR as an alternative to European-oriented parties. Evgeny Minkchenko, Head of Minchenko Consulting, spoke of the strengthening of nationalism around the world, and hence the growth of the RATRD rating, he insisted.

Rather, in the loss of positions by the Communists who have long received glasses at the expense of the "opposition version of patriotism," said Alexey Zudin, a member of the Expert Council of the IPEI Foundation. After the joining of Crimea, the version of patriotism from the Communists depreciated, the expert noted. The patriotic agenda, which was monopolized earlier by the Communist Party, now passed to United Russia, LDPR and other parties, agreed Volodin.

Russian sociology provides psychological pressure on voters, the political scientist Alexander Kynev believes. "The government really would like the LDPR to rank second place, because this party is more convenient and more comfortable for power," Kynev believes. According to him, during the campaign, the proportion of undefined. "The amount of the votes of the determined falls, and all, including the LDPR. And the undefined can be frozen anywhere in the elections. And sociologists share indecently distribute uniformly between the parties, "says the expert.

LDPR has shown its best result in the elections of the State Duma of the first convocation in 1993 - 22.92% of the votes. Twice the party worsened its indicator in the elections of the Duma of the second convocation (1995), receiving 11.18%. Four years later, in 1999, Blok Zhirinovsky scored only 5.98%. In the election of the Duma of the fourth convocation in 2003, the LDPR returned to its previous result - 11.45%. After four years, the party received 8.14%. In the last Duma elections in 2011, 11.67% of Russians voted for the LDPR.

Which parties are held in the State Duma by the latest data of sociologists

A week before the elections, sociological services predict overcoming the barrier in 5% by four parties. Voting results may be unexpected, since the sixth part of the voters has not yet decided on the choice

Monday, September 12, - the last day when sociological services can publishmeasurements of public opinion before the election of the State Duma. By law within five days before the voting day (September 18), as well as on the day of voting, it is prohibited to publish the results of public opinion polls and forecasts for election results.

Party undefined

The latest data published by the All-Russian Center for Public Opinion (WTCIOM) and Levada Center show that a five-percent barrier for passing in the Duma overcomes four parties: "United Russia", Communist Party of the Russian Federation, LDPR and "Fair Russia". According to the Foundation "Public Opinion" (FOM), this barrier will overcome only three parties - only 4% of those surveyed by the thomas are ready to give the voice for "Fair Russia". Readiness to vote for all other parties, including "Apple", a party of growth, Parnas, expressed 1% of respondents.

According to Thomas, 44% will accurately take part in the elections, another 30% are inclined to vote (the last survey was held on September 3-4, 3,000 respondents were interviewed in 73 subjects). Levada-Center data (the last published survey dated August 26-29 in 48 regions, 1,600 people surveyed) demonstrate the smaller enthusiasm of voters: 20% say that they will accurately go exactly, 28% declined to vote.

During the election campaign, the number of unreasonable in his choice has sharply increased. 14.6% of the respondents of the WTCIOM (the latest data was published on September 4, 1,600 people surveyed in 42 regions) they say they do not know which party will give a voice. In April, only 8% of respondents could not answer the question of electoral preferences. Thomas with the choice found 16% of respondents, they were 11% in April. These are the highest indicators of voter's uncertainty since 2011.

Party with president

With iln oscillations, the last week demonstrates the "United Russia" rating. According to Thomas, the proportion of Russians who are ready to vote for "United Russia" is 41%. On August 28, Fom reported on 44% of the surveyed Russians who stated the support of the party of power. From January 2016, the Rating of the Party in Data Thoma decreased by 9%.For 2%, the number of Russians, who certainly do not trust United Russia (from 12 to 14%) and adversely assess the activities of the party (from 25 to 27%). You have positively only to United Russia. Residents of the village and citizens without income follows from the polling data.

According to VTsIOM For the party of power are ready to vote 39.3%. In mid-August about the desire to give a voiceunited Russia 44% of Russians were told, in April there were 47.6% sharp drop in the rating of United Russia in early September Levada Center. The number of citizens who are ready to vote for the party of power in the elections of the State Duma, for August decreased from 39 to 31% of respondents, sociologists reported.

The rating of United Russia is not reduced, in different regions, he behaves in different ways, commented last week at a meeting with political scientists the first head of the presidential administration Vyacheslav Volodin (heads the regional group of United Russia). The tendency is "Spentor", he assured. "In a number of territories, she [Trend] is flat, in a number of territories, including St. Petersburg, falling, in terms of territories, including Moscow, increasing," classified Volodin. The fall occurs in those regions where "United Russia" did not put forward its candidates on single-member districts, giving them to the opposition, the Kremlin official. A week before the Duma electionsunited Russia We decided to launch the last wave of agitation, which will try to connect the Rating of the President with the Rating of the Party, . And on September 10, a week before the elections, President Vladimir Putin and the Prime Minister, the leader of the list of United Russia Dmitry Medvedev, together looked at the Orthodox church, walked on the boat on Lake Ilmen and talked with fishermen.

President Vladimir Putin's rating is not olebim - 82% in August (Levada Center, in June-July - 81-82%). The VTsIOM shows a decline in confidence rating to the president: 50.2% of respondents said about trust, they were 56% in early August. Support for the Prime Minister, according to Levada Center, decreased - from 55% in July to 48% in August. VTsiom, on the contrary, shows the growth of confidence in the premiere: 9.3% trusted in September against 10.1% in early August.

Stability

The ratings of the rest of the parties show a smaller dynamics. According to Thomas, the number of wishing to vote for the LDPR remains the same - 11%, the Communist Party of the Russian Federation during this time scored 1% (up to 9%), "Fair Russia" lost 1% (up to 4%). The number of those who decided not to go to the elections from 14 to 13% decreased. The data of the WTCIOM show a slight increase in the ranking of the Communists: up to 8.7% from 7.7% (at the beginning of the year there were 10% of those who were ready to vote for the Communist Party). The LDPR rating fell from 12.2 to 10.4%, 5.3% of respondents were ready to vote for "fair Russia" (at the beginning of the year there were 5.6%, the peak of sympathies towards the Estems was ready for July when they were ready for the party Give 7.9% of respondents). The Levada Center showed a stable Ranking of the Communist Party and LDPR, but the data of the last survey first demonstrated the passage of a five percent barrier.

The current data of sociologists closer to reality than predictions before the past art elections, the political scientist Alexey Makarkin believes. "The elections were scandalous, there were many questions. Now everything is done to avoid scandals. However, sociology cannot reach everything - the week before the elections will be decisive, "the expert argues. According to Makarkina, it can change the situation that a considerable part of the population makes a decision only at polling stations. In addition, sociologists record increasing the recognition of small parties. "Who can attract undefined voters, we still have to find out," the political analyst concludes.

Today it is extremely difficult to give reliable forecasts for the coming elections - 2016. And the point is not that the internal socio-economic and political situation in Russia is unstable, just the opposite, on the eve of the election of the authorities as a whole, it is possible to support a fairly favorable background.

Another thing is that the foreign policy situation is extremely unstable - Russia is a direct or indirect participant in a number of acute conflicts, and the aggravation of even one of them can significantly affect the ratings of the "Power Party" - either "in Plus" or "in minus".

But, of course, in any case, the Favorite of the electoral campaign-2016 will remain "United Russia", which has a good chance of a confident victory not only by party lists, but (especially) on single-member districts. Nevertheless, over the past 5 years, the ratings of the authorities are a bit, but they asked, therefore (if nothing is emergency) I give EP 39-40% of the votes for the federal district.

In second place in the State Duma, the Communist Party and LDPR will be applied to the State Duma, while Zyuganovans (despite the presence of a spoiler in the face of "Communists of Russia") the best chances of "silver". I think they can get 17-18 percent. The LDPR will add, but a little - 13-14% (again in the part of the votes will take from the "Girinov" of the "Motherland" party).

The fate of "ECEROV" is usually "foggy", but, most likely, they will also confidently pass to the State Duma, having received 12-13 percent in the region. Most likely, other political forces will not be able to "leaving" to the lower chamber (except for individual districts). My forecast for them in Elections-2016 Such: "Apple" - 3%, "Motherland" - 3%, "Russian Party of Pensioners" - 2%, "Patriots of Russia" - 1%, "Civil Platform" - 1%, " Communists of Russia "- 1%, the remaining - less than 1% (in total - 1.5-2%).