The mechanical movement of the population (migration) is characterized by the processes of population arrival in a given territory and departure from a given territory. Migration can be internal or external. The internal one involves the movement of the population within the country, region, etc., the external one can act in the form of emigration - leaving the country for permanent residence. There is the concept of "pendulum migration", that is, the movement of the population during the day from the suburbs to the city and from the city to the suburbs; from one area of ​​the city to another. Pendulum migration, as a rule, is associated with the labor activity of the population and is especially typical for large cities. At present, these processes, in addition, are associated with trade in industrial and food products in the markets.

Statistics offer the following indicators:

1) turnover rate on arrival

2) the ratio of turnover on disposal

3) the intensity of mechanical movement:

4) balance of mechanical movement: C ° = P - B;

5) coefficient of mechanical movement

Understanding multiple regression

Vital indicators

Natural movement of the population is the change in population as a result of births and deaths.

Absolute indicators

1. The number of births during the period (P)

2. The number of deaths for the period (U)

3. Natural increase (decrease) of the population, which is defined as the difference between the number of births and deaths for the period: EP = P - Y

Employment and unemployment rates

The population is divided into economically active and inactive. The active part of the population provides the supply of labor (sometimes employed and unemployed)

Employed persons include:

Employed workers of working age

Self-employed persons

Family workers (including work without pay)

Employers

Members of cooperatives

Collective farmers and people employed in the household

Employees of retirement age

Employed persons under working age

The unemployed are persons of both sexes aged 16 and over who, at the moment, did not have a job (other profitable occupation), were animated by looking for work; were ready to start work.

Pensioners, students, students, and people with disabilities are considered unemployed if they were looking for work and were ready to start working.

Unemployment rate

The ratio of the number of unemployed to the number of economically active population.



The sum of the employment rate and the unemployment rate is equal to one.

The staff is PPP (main children) NPP (non-core)
PPP happens Workers(main and auxiliary) is personnel category, which is directly involved in the creation of material values ​​or the provision of production services, workers are divided into categories depending on the type of work performed, profession, age, form and system of remuneration, length of service, with puddling(managers, specialists and others) is a category of personnel that is predominantly engaged in intellectual work
52) Categories and headcount indicators

Indicators of the number of employees are payroll (S), attendance (Y), actual (F) and average payroll (SR).

V payroll includes workers hired for permanent, temporary and seasonal work for a period of one day or more from the day they are hired in accordance with labor contracts (agreements). In the payroll of employees for each calendar day, both those who have come to work and those employees who are absent for any reason (OT) should be taken into account:

(19.8)

V attendance composition single out the number of not only those who appeared, but also those who actually started work.

The difference between the apparent number of workers and the number of workers who actually started work is the number of persons who are in full-day downtime (CPU) (lack of electricity, raw materials, semi-finished products, documentation, etc.):

One of the most important indicators is the indicator average payroll, which is defined as the ratio of the sum of the number of employees on the payroll for each calendar day of the reporting month, including holidays (non-working) and weekends, to the number of calendar days of the reporting month:

where H 1, H 2, ..., H i - the number of employees for each calendar day; n i - number of calendar days of the reporting month



Using the indicator of the average payroll of employees, other indicators are determined (the ratio of the number of main workers, indicators of the movement of personnel of the enterprise).

An analytical indicator of the enterprise's work is headcount ratio To cho, which is determined by the formula

where is the average number of auxiliary workers; - the average number of all workers.

53) motion indicators. In the section of the labor force balance, which characterizes the use of labor, the following indicators are reflected:
1.the number of those dismissed from work in total, including for reasons of retirement:
Ø in the order of transfer to other enterprises;
Ø in connection with the termination of the employment contract at the initiative of the employee (at his own request);
Ø in connection with the termination of the employment contract on the initiative of the administration of the enterprise;
Ø conscription or admission to military service;
Ø other reasons for leaving (for example, by decision of the judicial authorities).
2. the number of employees at the end of the study period.
To characterize the intensity of the movement of labor and to conduct a comparative analysis of enterprises, relative indicators are used, called the coefficients of turnover on admission, retirement, total turnover of the labor force, turnover of personnel and permanence of personnel. All these coefficients are calculated as the percentage of the corresponding absolute labor turnover to the average number of employees for the same period T sp

Migration - movement of people across the borders of territories with a change of place of residence forever or for a certain time.

The movement of the population within the country is called internal migration, and the movement of population from one country to another - external.

Gross migration (gross migration) or migration turnover

Shows the total number of migrating inhabitants (P + V).

Migration balance or mechanical gain

The difference between the number of arrivals and departures: (P - V)

Arrival rate

Retirement rate

The rate of mechanical growth (migration intensity) of the population

or TO fur pr = K arr – -TO select

Migration turnover intensity factor

Characterizes the frequency of cases of change of residence in the population for a certain period

Migration efficiency ratio

Total population growth rate

TO total = K eating.pr + K fur.pr

Typical task 2

The mechanical movement of the population of the region is characterized by the following data.

The average annual population is 146,900 people.

Arrived in this region - 495 people.

Dropped out from the region - 216 people.

Define:

      migration gain;

      the volume of migration;

      arrival rate;

      retirement rate;

      general coefficient of migration intensity;

      the coefficient of the intensity of the migration turnover;

      migration efficiency factor.

Draw conclusions.

Solution: 1.Migration growth = 495 - 216 = 279 people.

2. The volume of migration = 495 + 216 = 711 people.

3. Arrival rate:% o .

4. Retirement rate:% o .

5. General coefficient of migration intensity:

TO fur pr = K arr – TO select= 3.36 - 1.47 = 1.89% p.

6. Coefficient of migration turnover:

7. Migration efficiency factor:

In this region, population growth is observed due to a positive migration balance.

Typical task 3

The population of the country at the beginning of the year was 105,599.6 thousand people. During the year, 1,311,604 thousand people were born, 2,254,856 thousand people died. 2334.034 thousand people arrived for permanent residence in the country, 2252.253 thousand people left. The number of women aged 15 to 49 was 39,097,069 thousand people.

Calculate from the above data:

1) population size at the end of the year;

2) the average annual population;

3) general coefficients of natural and mechanical movement of the population;

4) the coefficient of vitality of Pokrovsky;

5) a special coefficient of fertility (fertility) of women;

6) the prospective population size in 2 years.

Draw conclusions.

Solution: 1. Population at the end of the year:

S k.y = S n.g + N - M + P - B = 105,599.6 + 1311.604 - 2254.856 + 2334.034 - 2252.253 = 104,738.129 (thousand people)

2. Average annual population:

(thousand people)

3. General coefficients:

Fertility rate: %O ;

Mortality rate: %O ;

The coefficient of natural increase (decline) of the population:

Arrival rate:% o;

Retirement rate:% o;

Mechanical gain coefficient:

TO fur pr = K arr - TO select= 22.20 - 21.42 = 0.78% o;

Migration efficiency factor:

Overall growth rate:

TO total = K eating.pr + K fur.pr= -8.97 + 0.78 = -8.19% p.

4. Coefficient of vitality of Pokrovsky:
.

5. Special fertility rate for women:

    Prospective population in 2 years:

(thousand people).

From the cited and obtained data, it follows that the country is experiencing a natural decline in population; the number of deaths exceeds the number of births, and migration processes do not make up for the decline. The processes of population depopulation are observed, while the low fertility rate of women plays an important role in the current situation. Thus, in 2 years the prospective population size will be less than the actual one.

Mechanical change is a change in population due to the territorial movement of people, i.e. due to migrations, which are:

· External;

· Internal;

· Seasonal;

· Pendulum.

The absolute indicator of population movement - V.

The number of arrivals - P.

Absolute mechanical gain - P fur. = P-B.

The intensity of mechanical movement is characterized by the following relative indicators :

1) arrival rate – ;

2) retirement rate – ;

3) mechanical gain – ;

To characterize the change in the number due to the natural movement of the population and due to migration, it is calculated overall growth rate:

3) K o.p. = To eat natural + K mechanical nature.

72.2.5. PERSPECTIVE CALCULATIONS
POPULATION

In the system of indicators characterizing the state and development of the country's economic, political and cultural life, an important role is played by prospective calculations of the population, which are based on hypotheses about the future dynamics of fertility, mortality and migration.

Prospective calculations of the population size are made on the basis of the population size obtained both according to population censuses and according to current estimates, birth and death tables, and current statistical reporting. The calculations take into account population migration between urban settlements and rural areas, between regions within Russia and external migration.

Forecast indicators of fertility and mortality, which are determined for each territory, are the result of special scientific research based on data from state statistics and special sample surveys.

For prospective calculations of the population size, the age displacement method is used. The essence of this method is as follows.

According to the census, a certain number of people in this age group was registered ( Sx, t). In a year, these people will move to the next age group, while they will survive until next year in a certain ratio, which is taken from the mortality tables in the form of the survival rate calculated there ( Px). If we multiply the population in the age group ( Sx, t) by the corresponding survival rate (Px, t), then the resulting value will characterize the population in a year in the next age group ( Sx+1, t+1). To determine the population size for the subsequent years of the forecast, the operation is repeated. General view of the calculation:



S (x+1,t+1) = S(x,t)*P(x,t) + W(x,t)

where W(x,t) is the volume of migration included in the calculation, distributed by sex and age.

Expected number of births per year ( t) is calculated by multiplying the number of women aged 15-49 years by the corresponding fertility rates ( Fx, t) obtained from fertility tables. The calculation can be represented by the formula:

N(t) = S(15,t)*F(15,t) + ..... + S(49,t)*F(49,t)

N(t) - the number of births,

S- the average annual number of women.

The projected number of deaths per year ( t) is defined as the difference between the population at the beginning of the year and the population moved to the end of the year. The calculation of the number of deaths is carried out according to the formula:

M(t) = S (1- P(x,t)*S(x, t)) + N(t)*(1-P(N,t))
x = 0

M(t) - the number of deaths,

P(N,t) is the survival rate of newborns until the end of the year.

Calculations of the prospective population size are carried out for one-year age groups (from 0 to 100 years), separately for men and women, urban and rural population of the republics within Russia, territories, regions. The prospective population size for the Russian Federation is obtained as the sum of the calculation results for its constituent regions. At the same time, the perspective calculation takes into account the peculiarities of population reproduction in each region.

As a result of the calculation, data are obtained on the total number of urban and rural populations, population by sex and age groups, the number of births, deaths, and natural increase. The calculation program provides for obtaining a number of analytical indicators: population growth, population growth rates, the share of urban and rural population, the share of certain age groups in the total population, the "demographic load" indicator, the ratio of men and women, total fertility, mortality and natural increase, total fertility rate, life expectancy at birth.

The obtained results of calculating the prospective population size are analyzed in order to assess their credibility. For this, a comparison of the indicators of prospective calculation with the dynamics of the corresponding indicators for previous years is carried out.

The results of calculating the prospective population size are influenced not only by the future dynamics of fertility and mortality, but also by the age structure of the population. Thus, the change in the number of women aged 15-49 years (especially 20-29 years old), associated with fluctuations in the number of births in previous years, will affect the increase or decrease in the number of births and total fertility rates in the long-term calculation. An increase in the number and proportion of the older population in the total population (the so-called “aging” process of the population) will lead to an increase in the number of deaths and overall mortality rates.

To study the influence of fertility, mortality and migration on the results of the prospective calculation of the population size, multivariate calculations are performed, which take into account different levels of indicators of population reproduction and migration.

At present, the Goskomstat of Russia has calculated two options for calculating the prospective population size up to 2005, which provide for the following scenarios of demographic development. The "medium" variant assumes that by the beginning of the next century the consequences of the demographic crisis will be overcome and the death rate will stabilize, and the birth rate will be established at the level characteristic of the countries of Europe, North America and Japan. According to this option, the population at the end of the period will be about 143 million people. The "pessimistic" variant presupposes a continuation of the negative trends in demographic development that developed in the 90s, it provides for a further decrease in the birth rate and an increase in mortality. According to this option, the population of Russia will decrease to 136 million people. A "pessimistic" forecast can be viewed as a warning forecast.

Topic IV
STATISTICS OF LABOR RESOURCES AND THEIR USE

The working person has a decisive role in the development of economic activity, improving its organization and management in order to get the most out of his creative work.

People invent and produce instruments of labor and means of production, organize the rational division and cooperation of labor at various levels of production activity, from the workplace to organization within the entire national economy.

Labor force, as a set of physical and spiritual abilities of a person, is the main productive force of society and constitutes the labor resources of all enterprises and institutions belonging to various sectors of the national economy.

The labor resources of each unit produced is a part of the labor resources distributed over the branches of the national economy.

A statistical characteristic of the availability of labor resources of an enterprise, institution, association, industry, agriculture, construction or transport separately or of the entire national economic complex is the number of employees employed in them.

The statistics of each branch of the national economy examines the following issues related to the use of living labor:

1. statistics of labor resources and their use;

2. labor productivity statistics;

3. statistics of wages.

Labor force statistics are in turn divided into two parts: labor force statistics and working time statistics.

The main tasks of labor force statistics are the study of the number and composition of workers, the study of changes in the number of workers; assessment of the provision of the enterprise with labor resources; study of the organization of work and the use of workers according to the relevant qualifications; the study of labor discipline.

The tasks of working time statistics are:

1. determination of the total value of the worked time;

2. study of the use of working time and identification of losses of working time.

Natural movement of the population.... The natural movement of the population also includes marriages and divorces, as well as changes in life expectancy. The natural movement of the population is characterized by absolute and relative indicators.
The absolute indicators include: 1. the number of births per year (N); 2. the number of deaths (M);
3. absolute natural population growth, which is defined as the difference between the number of births and deaths (N-M).
Absolute indicators natural movement of the population does not characterize the intensity of its reproduction, and they cannot be used for a comparative analysis of population reproduction in different territories. For this purpose, relative indicators of the vital movement of the population are used, which are expressed in the form of coefficients, called ppm (‰).
The relative coefficients of the vital movement of the population are calculated as the ratio of the corresponding absolute indicator to the average annual population and multiplied by 1000. Relative indicators can be general and specific. TO common indicators include the birth rate, mortality and natural movement (growth) of the population. Relative indicators of the vital movement of the population.

Statistics of mechanical movement of the population (population migration).
In population statistics, mechanical movement is understood as the movement of the population across the territory of the country. The mechanical movement of the population is characterized by absolute and relative indicators. The main absolute indicators of migration are:
1. the number of arrivals to this territory for the year (P); 2 ... the number of people leaving this territory for the year (B);
3. balance of migration (migration gain), which is defined as the difference between arrivals and departures (ΔSmech = P-V); 4 ... migration turnover, which is the sum of the number of arrivals and departures (MO = P + V).
The relative indicators of the mechanical movement of the population include the population growth rate and the general population growth rate.

Methods for calculating the coefficient of general population growth.
The total population changes due to birth and mortality, as well as due to the mechanical movement of the population.

This is the relationship between the total absolute population growth, natural and mechanical population growth.
The way in which the coefficient of total population growth is calculated depends on the available data.



The listed indicators of the mechanical movement of the population can be calculated both for the whole population and for different groups of the population (age, ethnic, etc.).
In international comparisons, the statistics of the mechanical movement of the population operates with such terms as immigrant and emigrant, immigrant worker and emigrant worker.
For analytical purposes, the following indicators are calculated to characterize migration flows and flows of migrant workers:
1.the proportion of indicators of international labor migration in the corresponding indicators of total population migration on the basis of absolute data;
2. the share of emigrants and immigrants of working age in the total number of emigrants and immigrants in a given country.

(SES) 9. Indicator of employment and unemployment

Employment- the activity of the able-bodied population related to the production of material and spiritual benefits in order to satisfy personal and social needs, which does not contradict the legislation and, as a rule, brings them earnings (labor income).
Quantitatively, employment is characterized by an indicator of the level of employment. It can be calculated in two ways:
1) The share of employed in the total population: Uz = Chz / Chn, where Chz is the number of employed, Chn is the total population. 2) The share of the employed in the economically active population:
Uz = Chz / (Chz + Chb), where Chb is the number of unemployed.
In international statistics, the initial indicator for the analysis of employment is the level of economic activity of the population, i.e. the share of the economically active population in the total population:
Uea = (Chz + Bw) / Chn.
The practical need for population registration necessitates the identification of species (structure of) employment- the distribution of the active part of the labor force by spheres and branches of the economy, by sex and age, level of education.
Unemployment- the lack of employment for a certain, more or less part of the economically active population, capable and willing to work.
The most important indicators of unemployment are:
1. The unemployment rate (UB) is the proportion of the number of unemployed (B) in the economically active population (EAP), expressed as a percentage.



Counting the unemployed according to the ILO method assumes a periodic sample survey, a survey of the population by any government agency, excluding employment services. In our country, this work is carried out by the State Committee on Statistics. The sample survey is carried out by 2 methods: periodically conducted surveys of families (USA, Japan, etc.);
counting the number of applications filed with the state employment service for receiving unemployment benefits (Great Britain, etc.).
In accordance with the methodology of the Federal Employment Service of Russia, the unemployment rate is determined by the following formula:

Where Z is the number of employees.
The level of registered (registered) unemployment (UBR) is determined by the formula: where is the number of unemployed registered by the employment authorities.
2. The duration of unemployment, i.e. a value that characterizes the average duration of job search (in months) by persons who have the status of unemployed at the end of the period under review, as well as those unemployed who were employed during this period.

The change in population due to birth and death is called natural population movement.

Mechanical change is a change in population due to the territorial movement of people, i.e. due to migrations, which are:

- external;

- internal;

- seasonal;

- pendulum.

The natural and mechanical movement of the population is characterized by absolute and relative indicators.

Absolute indicators:

1) the number of births - N;

2) the number of deaths - M;

3) natural growth - N-M = DSnatural;

4) the number of marriages and divorces;

5) the number of those who left for permanent residence - B;

6) the number of arrivals - P.

7) absolute mechanical gain - DS fur = P-V;

8) general population growth DS = N-M + P-B;

9) population at the end of the year: St + 1 = St + N-M + P-V.

These indicators are interval, i.e. determined for the period.

Relative indicators are used to judge the frequency of certain demographic events. They are expressed in ppm (‰) and characterize the population level per 1000 people.

Relative indicators are divided into general and specific (special) indicators.

General coefficients - the ratio of the corresponding absolute indicators to average annual total population, calculated in ppm (per 1000 population).

General indicators of natural and mechanical movement of the population.

fertility rate ‰

mortality rate ‰

arrival rate ‰

retirement rate ‰

natural growth rate

mechanical gain

coefficient of total growth K total pr. = K nat.pr. + K mechanical pr.

Coefficient of vitality of Pokrovsky

Private indicators - the ratio of the corresponding absolute indicators to the average annual population of a group(age, sex, professional, etc.), calculated in ppm (per 1000 population).

To characterize fertility, a special fertility rate (fertility indicator) is also used, which is calculated as the ratio of the number of births to the average number of women of fertile age (from 15 to 49 years).

BIRTH RATE, MORTALITY AND NATURAL POPULATION GROWTH
Years Total, thousand people Per 1000 population
born dead natural growth 1) born dead natural growth 1)
All population
26,9 10,1 16,8
2782,4 886,1 1896,3 23,2 7,4 15,8
1903,7 1131,2 772,5 14,6 8,7 5,9
2202,8 1525,8 15,9 4,9
1988,9 332,9 13,4 11,2 2,2
1363,8 2203,8 -840 9,3 -5,7
1266,8 2225,3 -958,5 8,7 15,3 -6,6
1311,6 2254,9 -943,3 15,6 -6,6
2332,3 -935,3 9,7 16,2 -6,5
1477,3 2365,8 -888,5 10,2 16,4 -6,2
1502,5 2295,4 -792,9 10,4 -5,6
1457,4 2303,9 -846,5 10,2 16,1 -5,9
1479,6 2166,7 -687,1 10,4 15,2 -4,8
1610,1 2080,4 -470,3 11,3 14,6 -3,3
1713,9 2075,9 -362 12,1 14,6 -2,5
1761,7 2010,5 -248,8 12,4 14,2 -1,8

Problem number 1

The following data on the population of the region are available:

Define:

1) population size at the end of the year, general population growth, natural and mechanical growth;

2) the average annual population;

3) the rates of fertility, mortality, arrival, departure, natural, mechanical and total growth;

4) a special fertility rate (fertility rate), if the proportion of women of fertile age in the total population (dzh15-49) was 19%.

1. The population size at the end of the year can be calculated using the following balance formula:

Sk.y. = Sн.y. + [(N-M) + (P-V)], where

[(N-M) + (P-B)] - total population growth,

(N-M) - natural population growth,

(P-V) - mechanical population growth (migration balance).

S k = 2445.7 + 21.4-33.1 + 8.6-3.6 = 2439.0 thousand people.

The population of the region at the end of the year amounted to 2439.0 thousand people.

The natural decline was 11.7 thousand people. (21.4-33.1 = -11.7), and the migration growth of the population was equal to 5.0 thousand people. (8.6-3.6 = 5). Thus, in the studied year, the population of the region decreased by 6.7 thousand people. (-1.7 + 5 = -6.7).

2. The average annual population is calculated in this case in the following way:

Thousand. people

On average, during the year, the population was 2,442.4 thousand people.

3. General demographic coefficients are calculated according to the general method - as the ratio of the corresponding absolute indicator to the average population, expressed in per thousand (‰):

In the studied period, per 1000 inhabitants, there were 8.8 births and 13.6 deaths, 3.5 arrived for permanent residence and 1.5 left. The natural decline in the amount of 4.8 ppm was not covered by the excess of the number of arrivals over the number of departures from the region, and the general decrease in the number was 2.8 people per 1000 inhabitants.

4. To characterize fertility, a special fertility rate (fertility indicator) is also used, which is calculated as the ratio of the number of births to the average number of women of fertile age (from 15 to 49 years).

There is the following relationship between the crude birth rate and the fertility rate:

‰

There are 46.3 births per 1000 women of fertile age.

4. INDICATORS OF LABOR MARKET STATISTICS

Employment is one of the most important socio-economic problems of a market economy. According to the concept of a labor force that meets international standards, employment and unemployment are seen as two complementary characteristics. The equilibrium of the economic system corresponds to a certain level of employment. Moreover, usually the demand for labor exceeds the existing volume of employment, which determines the presence of unemployment. At the same time, this excess is not unlimited to ensure the economic and social stability of society. Therefore, in countries with market economies, employment and unemployment are studied systematically.

For a long time, domestic statistics have used the labor force indicator, which characterizes the potential of the labor force.

The number of labor resources is defined as the number of the working-age population of working age and working people outside the working age (persons of retirement age and adolescents).

The working age population is the number of men aged 16-59 and women aged 16-54.

The size of the working-age population of working age is obtained by subtracting from the population of working-age (working) age the number of disabled persons of 1 and 2 groups of working age and the number of people of working age receiving a pension on preferential terms.

In a market economy, an indicator is used that characterizes the supply of labor in the labor market, the economically active population.

Economically active population - the part of the population that provides labor supply in the labor market. The economically active population includes the employed and unemployed.

In accordance with the recommendations of the ILO, as noted earlier, statistics considers the number of employed and unemployed as two components of the economically active population, that is, the labor force. Its measurement allows one to conduct macroeconomic monitoring and develop an employment strategy.

The size of the economically active population is estimated according to the data of sample surveys of the population on the problems of employment. It is recommended that international standards indicate the minimum age accepted when measuring the economically active population. It can be adopted at the level of 6 years (Egypt), 10 years (Brazil) and rise to 16 years (USA, Sweden). In most countries, it is 14-15 years old. Some countries have two minimum limits: a lower one for obtaining information about economic activity and a slightly higher one for grouping the economically active population: for example, in Canada - 14 and 15 years, India - 5 and 15, Venezuela - 10 and 15 2, in Russia - 15 and 16 years old.

In addition to the minimum, a number of countries have established a maximum age. This means that persons older than it are excluded from the calculation of the economically active population. For example, Denmark, Sweden, Norway, Finland have an upper limit of 74 years. In Russia, when conducting surveys of the population on employment problems, they are limited to the age of 72 years. At the same time, with the further grouping of the population into employed and unemployed, as in most countries, the maximum age has not been established.

In accordance with the methodological guidelines "Classification of statistical data on the composition of the labor force, economic activity and status of employment", in sample surveys of the population, employed persons include persons of both sexes 16 years of age and older, as well as persons of younger ages, who in the period under review:

· Performed work for hire for remuneration on a full or part-time basis, as well as performed other work that generates income in self-employment or for hire from individual citizens, regardless of the timing of receiving direct payment or income for their activities. The number of employed is not included in the number of registered unemployed, performing paid public works, obtained through the employment service; pupils and students performing paid agricultural work in the direction of educational institutions;

Were temporarily absent from work: due to illness, nursing, annual leave or days off, training, retraining outside their workplace, study leave, leave without pay or with pay at the initiative of the administration, strike, etc .;

· Performed work without pay in a family business.

The ICHA provides a grouping of individuals based on their actual or potential job connection. It was adopted on January 28, 1993 at the XV International Conference of Labor Statisticians and includes the following groups:

1 - employees;

2 - employers;

3 - persons working at their own expense;

4 - members of production cooperatives;

5 - helping family members;

6 - workers not classified by status.

In accordance with the ICSZ, the Goskomstat of Russia approved and put into effect on June 1, 1993 the Basic Methodological Provisions for the Classification of Statistical Data on the Composition of the Labor Force, Economic Activity and Status in Employment. In it, the classification by status in employment includes the following categories:

a) employees;

b) persons working on an individual basis;

c) employers;

d) unpaid family workers;

e) members of collective enterprises;

f) persons who cannot be classified by status.

Currently in Russia 93% is hired workers, i.e. persons of hired labor who have entered into an employment contract, a contract with the head of the enterprise or an oral agreement with an individual on the conditions of work and the amount of remuneration. This also includes persons appointed to a paid position, including heads of enterprises and organizations.

TO individuals working on an individual basis are citizens who independently carry out activities that generate income, without using hired labor(excluding casual or seasonal work). This group of people is not large yet - 4.2%.

TO employers include persons who manage their own private (family) enterprise, farm, or work independently, but constantly use the labor of hired workers. In the total number of entrepreneurs running their own business (0.9%), men predominate, although gradually women are increasingly engaged in it. As the British say, "there are no men and women in business, there are business partners."

Unpaid family workers are persons who work without pay in a private family business owned by a relative.

Members of collective enterprises are persons who work at the given enterprise and are the owners, co-owners of it. They are directly involved in solving all issues related to the activities of the enterprise, the distribution of its income among the team members.

Persons not amenable to classification by status in employment, there are persons whose information is insufficient and (or) who cannot be attributed to any of the listed categories.

In accordance with the methodological guidelines "Classification of statistical data on the composition of the labor force, economic activity and employment status", in sample surveys of the population, unemployed persons are 16 years and older, who in the period under review:

a) did not have a job (profitable occupation);

b) were looking for work, i.e. applied to the state or commercial employment service, used or placed advertisements in the press, directly addressed the administration of the enterprise (employer), used personal connections, etc., or took steps to organize their own business;

c) were ready to get to work.

When referring to the unemployed, all three of the above criteria must be met.

It is customary to distinguish actual unemployment, calculated according to the ILO methodology based on sample surveys, from officially registered in the bodies of the State Employment Service of the Russian Federation. In employment services among citizens who have applied for employment, three groups are distinguished:

1) those working, but wishing to change their place of work or work part-time in their free time from their main job;

2) students, pupils of general education schools and other educational institutions wishing to work in their free time;

3) not employed at the time of applying for employment.

To regulate the unemployment rate in the region, the most interesting is the third group of citizens who applied for employment. Most of them are counted as officially recognized as unemployed by law.

As a rule, the unemployment rate, determined according to the sample survey data, is 3 - 6 times higher than the level registered with the State Employment Service of the Russian Federation.

Missing people (up to 100) - economically inactive population of working age, that is, the population that is not part of the labor force. It includes:

Pupils and students, listeners and cadets attending daytime educational institutions and not engaged in any activity other than study;

Persons engaged in housekeeping, caring for children, sick people, relatives, etc .;

Persons who have stopped looking for work, having exhausted all the possibilities of obtaining it, but they can and are ready to work,

Persons who do not need to work regardless of their source of income.

According to the methodology of the International Labor Organization (ILO), the economically inactive population includes two more categories that are not part of the labor force:

Persons receiving pensions (for old age, on preferential terms, for the loss of a breadwinner) and not engaged in any activity;

People with disabilities receiving pensions and not engaged in any activity,

The social composition of the unemployed is obtained by means of statistics when analyzing data from a sample survey on employment problems and from the employment service

To predict employment and unemployment, information about the duration of unemployment is needed. This kind of data is used in most countries of the world.

The duration of unemployment in Russia at the end of November 1999 reached six groups:

Compared to countries with developed economies, the share of the former group is too small in Russia and the latter is very high.

For example, in the United States in 1990, less than 1 month. About 47% of those who lost it did not have a job, and only one in twentieth did not have it for more than 1 year 1. The high proportion of people who have been unemployed for less than 1 month means that unemployment does not lead to social explosions in society. On the contrary, a high percentage of people with the status of unemployed for more than 1 year is one of the signs of chronic unemployment.

Based on the considered distribution of the unemployed, it is possible to approximately determine the average duration of unemployment as the arithmetic weighted average:

where is the time of absence of work in the i-th group;

The number of unemployed in the i-th group.

The median duration of unemployment is 11.2 months. The median was calculated using the formula

,

where - the lower boundary of the median interval (9), i.e., the first interval with

cumulative frequency of 50% or more;

- the value of the median interval (3);

The ordinal number of the median (50);

Accumulated frequency of the pre-median interval (42.8);

- local frequency of the median interval (9.9).

The median value shows that about half of the unemployed have been looking for work for more than 11.2 months.

Job search time is closely related to the age of the unemployed and varies significantly by gender.

Similarly, you can study the composition of the unemployed by the duration of receiving unemployment benefits: through the distribution of the unemployed by the length of time of receiving benefits.

The labor market situation is assessed not only through the absolute number of employed and unemployed, but also through relative indicators at the beginning (end) of the period or on average per year:

1. The coefficient of economic activity is determined by the ratio of the economically active population to the total population or the number of labor resources.

To have an idea of ​​the level of economic activity of the population of a country (region), the share of the economically active population in the total population is determined.

More precisely, the level of economic activity of the population is defined as the ratio of the number of the economically active population not to the entire population, but to its number between the ages of 15 and 72, because this age group participates in sample surveys.

Each age group has its own level of economic activity. The desire to work systematically increases up to the age of 35 - 39 years (in some years up to 40 - 44 years) and then gradually decreases.

2. The employment rate of the population is determined by the ratio of the employed population to the economically active population.

The employment rate can also be defined as the share of the employed among the population of a particular age group.

The level of employment characterizes the degree of use of the able-bodied population in the sphere of socially useful labor. The value of this indicator reflects the current economic situation in the country. It depends on the development of productive forces, scientific and technological progress in society, and the level of well-being of the population. Distinguish between full, partial and hidden employment.

Full employment implies the creation of such living conditions in which every able-bodied person is given the opportunity, if he wishes, to be employed or unemployed. Full employment does not mean that the entire working-age population of working age must necessarily be employed. Due to a number of circumstances, certain able-bodied persons may not participate in the labor process (women caring for children; people who do not work because they want to change their profession, etc.). Full employment is achieved when the demand for labor coincides with its supply, which is a rather rare event in a market economy.

Part-time work is pre-determined part-time, part-time work. It is inherent in countries with a high level of economic development, where the state of science creates economic conditions for part-time employment.

Deserves special attention hidden employment (potential unemployment), in which workers do not voluntarily work in part-time employment, use leaves on the initiative of the administration without retention or with partial retention of wages. This apparent underemployment underestimates the real number of unemployed.

Employed and unemployed (economically active population) are an integral part of the region's labor resources. Therefore, in the literature, the levels of employment and unemployment are often defined as the proportion of the employed and the proportion of the unemployed in the total labor force. The indicators of the levels of employment and unemployment found in this way are in terms of their values ​​lower than those considered earlier (in% of the economically active population.

3. The unemployment rate is calculated as the ratio of the number of unemployed to the number of economically active population.

4. The coefficient of the total load is calculated as the ratio of the population of disabled age to the population of working age per 1000 people.

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5. The replacement rate is determined by the ratio of the population of pre-working age (0-16 years) to the population of working age per 1000 people.

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6. Retirement load ratio - the ratio of the number of persons of retirement age to the population of working age per 1000 inhabitants.

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Problem number 1

The following data are available on the population of the region:

Index thousand people
Population (S)
Employees including: employed persons of retirement age employed persons under working age
Individuals
Unpaid family workers
Employers
Members of cooperatives
Collective farmers
Persons who do not have a job and are looking for it (previously worked)
First time job seekers
Persons who have been unemployed for a long time, who have stopped looking, but are ready to work
Younger people (0-15 years old) (S 0-15)
Working-age students with a break from work
Household and childcare workers
Old age pensioners (S pen)
Non-working persons of working age, including: the number of persons with disabilities of groups 1 and 2 the number of persons receiving a pension on preferential terms

1) the number of employed (S s), unemployed (S b), economically active (S a) and economically inactive population (S on);

2) the coefficients of economic activity (K a), employment (K z) and unemployment (K b);

3) the size of the working age (working) age population (S t), the working age population (S tt), labor resources (S tr);

4) the coefficients of the total load (K total n), pension (K penn) and replacement (K deputy).

1. THE CONCEPT "STANDARD OF LIVING OF THE POPULATION" ITS COMPONENTS

The concept of “standard of living” is a complex, multifaceted, socio-economic category. It includes the volume of consumption of material and spiritual goods and the degree to which they meet the needs of the population.

The concept of "standard of living" can be viewed in a broad and narrow sense of the word.

In a broad sense, the standard of living, i.e. at the level of the country as a whole, it is a set of all socially significant conditions for the development of society.

In a narrow sense, the standard of living reflects only the personal needs of the individual and the degree of satisfaction with them.

The standard of living is one of the most important social categories. The standard of living is understood as the provision of the population with the necessary material goods and services, the achieved level of their consumption and the degree of satisfaction of reasonable (rational) needs. This is how well-being is understood. The monetary value of goods and services actually consumed in an average household over a certain period of time and corresponding to a certain level of satisfaction of needs is the cost of living. In a broad sense, the concept of "standard of living of the population" also includes living conditions, work and employment, everyday life and leisure, its health, education, natural habitat, etc. In this case, the term "quality of life" is often used.

Four standards of living of the population can be distinguished: prosperity (the use of benefits that ensure the all-round development of a person); normal level (rational consumption according to scientifically grounded norms, ensuring a person's restoration of his physical and intellectual strength); poverty (consumption of goods at the level of preservation of working capacity as the lowest limit of labor force reproduction); poverty (the minimum permissible set of goods and services according to biological criteria, the consumption of which only allows maintaining human vitality).

Raising the standard of living (social progress) is a priority area of ​​social development.

The tasks of studying the standard of living also include:

Comprehensive consideration of the structure, dynamics and rate of change of its indicators;

Differentiation of different groups of the population by income and consumption and analysis of the influence of various socio-economic factors on this change;

Assessment of the degree of satisfaction of the needs of the population in material goods and various services by comparing the rational norms of their consumption and the development of this basis for generalizing indicators of the standard of living.

The sources of information for solving the assigned tasks are: current accounting and reporting of enterprises, organizations and institutions serving the population; data from labor statistics, employment of the population, employment and payment, household budgets, population censuses.

The most complete and up-to-date system is the "Basic Indicators of the Living Standards of the Population in a Market Economy", developed at the Center for Economic Conditions and Forecasting under the Ministry of Economy of the Russian Federation in 1992. It contains 7 sections, covering 40 indicators:

I. Generalizing indicators.

1. Criterion of living standards.

3. Gross national product (consumption fund, personal consumption fund) per capita.

II. Population income.

1. Real general incomes of the population.

2. Real disposable income of the population.

3. The total income of the population.

4. Personal incomes of the population.

5. Personal disposable income of the population.

6. Cash income of the population.

7. Average income and average wages of employees.

8. Average size of real wages.

9. Average pension, allowances, scholarships.

III. Consumption and expenditures of the population.

The total volume of consumption by the population of material goods and services.

Cash expenditures of the population.

3. Consumer spending of the population.

The consumption of basic food products by the population.

The purchasing power of the average wage.

Average pension purchasing power.

IV. Cash savings of the population.

1. The amount of money savings of the population.

V. Accumulated property and housing.

The value of accumulated household (personal) property.

The presence and characteristics of durable goods in the property of the population.

Housing conditions of the population.

Vi. Social differentiation of the population.

1. Distribution of the population by the size of the per capita (average for the household) total income.

2. Consumption of basic food products, non-food goods and services by the population with different levels of per capita (average for the household) total income.

3. The structure of consumer spending of the population with different levels of per capita (average household) income.

4. Dynamics of the cost of the actual and normative consumer baskets of various segments of the population.

6. Decile coefficients of differentiation of income and consumption of the population.

7. The ratio of the average values ​​of income and consumption within the upper and lower deciles.

8. The share of quintile (decile) groups of the population (households) by the level of average per capita (average for a household) income in the total income of society.

Vii. Low-income strata of the population.

1. Subsistence minimum (poverty line).

2. The minimum consumer budget.

3. The minimum wage.

4. The minimum pension.

5. The purchasing power of the minimum wage.

6. The purchasing power of the minimum pension.

7. Coefficient (level) of poverty.

8. Deficit of income.

9. Zones of poverty.

10. Social portrait of poverty.

The most important 12 indicators out of the 40 listed are included in the system of indicators for assessing the progress of economic reform in Russia in section 10 "Social sphere, living standards of the population" and in subsection 10.3 "Living standards". The 12 indicators include:

1. Average wages of employees.

2. The purchasing power of the population with average wages and pensions.

3. The minimum consumer budget for the main socio-demographic groups of the population.

4. Subsistence minimum for the main socio-demographic groups of the population.

5. The number and proportion of the population with average per capita incomes below the minimum consumer budget and the subsistence (physiological) minimum.

6. Food consumption in households with different levels of per capita income.

7. Cash income and expenses of certain socio-demographic groups of the population.

8. Indicators of population differentiation.

9. The ratio of the average per capita incomes of 10% of the most and 10% of the poorest population.

11. The structure of consumer spending of various socio-demographic groups of the population.

12. Distribution of the population by the size of the average per capita income.