According to their research, by the middle of the century, coal and oil will begin to lose their importance as energy sources, fossil fuels will be replaced by the energy of the sun. But this will require a change in the entire paradigm of relations within the industry - both technology and the psychology of the players.

Big energy three

According to Global Energy experts (which include 20 scientists from various countries of the world, including, for example, Nobel Peace Prize laureate Rodney Allam), by 2100 the share of oil and coal in the world fuel and energy balance will be 2, 1% and 0.9%, respectively, thermonuclear energy will occupy a tenth of the market, and more than a quarter of the world's electricity will be generated by the sun. The reason for these changes is a gradual decline in hydrocarbon production and a reorientation towards the construction of cleaner energy facilities.

The influence of different states on the energy market will also change: for example, by 2035 the United States will be the largest producer of fuel and energy resources (24%), second place will be taken by Russia (21%) and China (16%). However, in 50 years, according to experts, Russia will come out on top (19%), China will become the second (18%), and the United States will "drop" to third place (17%). By 2100, however, the disposition will change again: China will break out into first place (20%), and Russia and the United States will occupy the second and third lines of the rating (16% and 14%, respectively).

The experts also named the factors that, in their opinion, prevent the fuel and energy complex from developing in a "green" direction: more than a third of the scientists participating in the study noted that while alternative energy sources are too expensive, and competition from hydrocarbon and nuclear energy is high ... At the same time, the image of “traditional” energy is actively being formed as undesirable and non-environmentally friendly; in addition, the modern economy requires a more efficient use of available resources, the development of waste processing and related technologies. In such a situation, according to experts, such areas as bioenergy and the development of biofuels, as well as thermonuclear reactors, will receive additional incentives for development.

The research results presented by Global Energy at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum sparked a lively discussion about the future of energy in general and Russian energy in particular. Trends are trends, but the starting positions and structure of the economy in different countries (and different regions of the same country) are still different, which means that the path to the top three energy leaders of the world Russia, China and the United States will go differently.

There will be less coal, but more

Most experts believe that one of the prerequisites for a decrease in the share of hydrocarbons in the global balance is the Paris Climate Agreements, one of the main themes of which was the freezing of coal projects. Many banks and financial institutions have announced their refusal to invest in the coal mining and energy sectors. Plans for large-scale construction of coal-fired power plants remained with only four countries - Vietnam, India, Indonesia and China, although there are also smaller players who do not want to abandon the development of this sector of the economy, in particular, Pakistan and Turkey. At the same time, there are ideas and projects for the revival of the coal component, taking into account new, more gentle technologies, as well as ideas for the restoration and development of solid fuel production in the Arctic territories.

One of these projects, for example, is being implemented in the Arctic zone of the Krasnoyarsk Territory: one of the world's largest anthracite deposits is located on the Taimyr Peninsula, and its development began in 2015. Only in one section, the Malaya Lemberova River, reserves of high-quality anthracite are about 600 million tons. By 2020, Vostok-Ugol Management Company plans to produce here up to 30 million tons per year and send anthracite to European countries along the Northern Sea Route.

But the Paris Agreements will most likely not have a direct impact on the oil sector, says Igor Lobovskiy, President of the Association for the Development of International Research and Projects in the Field of Energy "Global Energy".

Significant changes will follow with the onset of the era of the widespread development of vehicles on electricity and other energy sources that are not related to hydrocarbons, experts predict such processes no earlier than 2030, therefore, the maximum decrease in the share of hydrocarbons is predicted only by 2070, he argues. - Such a scenario is economically justified in the event of a decrease in the cost of generating electricity from renewable sources - and this should really happen in the coming decades. For example, the 2017 Global Energy Prize laureate Michael Gretzel is the inventor of the so-called “Grätzel cells”, a new generation of solar cells that are several times cheaper to manufacture than silicon cells. Such inventions will allow renewable energy to develop everywhere and, as a result, significantly reduce its cost.

So the revised scenario for the development of hydrocarbon industries should be read as follows: the share of hydrocarbons in the energy sector will decrease, but consumption will grow.

We forget that today oil is increasingly used in petrochemistry, in the production of consumer goods, - says Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak, - 9 out of 10 goods in our country today contain refined products. And if today 11 million barrels of total goes to petrochemistry, then according to the most conservative forecasts, in fifteen years, 17 million barrels will go to petrochemistry, and maybe even more, in a more accelerated mode.

Think aviation, shipping, petrochemicals, echoes Royal Dutch Shell Plc CEO Ben van Beurden. - A lot of processes require high temperatures and extremely high temperatures for heating. And, of course, hydrocarbons will take their place.

When will the wind blow?

The consumer needs cheap energy - this is the main factor holding back the development of alternative energy. To make renewable energy sources (RES) attractive, either a high oil price or financial support from the state or development institutions is needed.

When the price of oil reaches $ 100 per barrel, it sets the stage for the development of new technologies, including renewable energy sources, says Patrick Pouyanne, President of Total.

So far, the cost of building renewable energy sources in Russia is quite high, and the utilization rate of the installed capacity is not as high as we would like (and not only in Russia: according to the US Energy Agency, the average capacity of solar power plants is about 26%). This means that the cost of a kilowatt-hour for the consumer is also high. Again, construction is the last stage, it is necessary to develop our own production of solar panels and other elements. But it should be admitted that solar energy in Russia is no longer a startup, but a well-established industry. And its development depends on the priorities of the state.

There is a phenomenon, grid parity - the point when the cost of kW / hour of electricity generated in alternative energy is equal to the cost of kW / hour of electricity generated in traditional energy. The debate is - when will this happen? - says Anatoly Chubais, Chairman of the Board of RUSNANO Management Company LLC. - In a number of countries it has already happened, in Russia it will happen a little later, but it is inevitable, if only because the potential upgrade of the wind and sun is significantly greater than the potential upgrade even in combined cycle technologies in thermal generation or hydro generation. We will definitely come to a point when alternative energy will become cheaper.

Experts predict that this will happen by 2050. According to Chubais, an absolutely workable system of support for alternative energy has now been created in Russia, and there are no obstacles to its development. The next task that will have to be solved is to find ways of industrial storage of electricity. And this is not a long-term task, but for the next ten years.

However, not all experts share optimism about the prospects for renewable energy sources - at least they are rather restrained in assessing the volume of renewable technologies required by the global energy sector.

I think that humanity will encourage the use of renewable energy sources in some form of government subsidies. Recently, this segment has shown a significant reduction in cost and the possibility of faster implementation, - said the chairman of the committee for awarding the Global Energy Prize, Nobel laureate Rodney Allam. - Renewable energy sources will be represented by systems with low intensity, requiring huge areas; for them will be built "solar farms" in the deserts and offshore wind farms. This segment of the energy sector should make up a certain percentage of the total market volume. I think 20 percent is a reasonable limit.

The future belongs to nuclear energy

According to the authors of the report, a decrease in the share of hydrocarbons is the only possible scenario for the successful development of civilization, the only question is when this turning point will come. Global Energy experts believe that this may happen after 2050. Now the share of "green" energy in the world is no more than 30%. At the same time, experts refer to nuclear power plants as "green" energy, which generate about 11% of the world's electricity. After all, nuclear power plants are characterized by low carbon emissions.

We are on the threshold of the fourth industrial order, on the threshold of another revolution. This is the time of horizontal connections, digital informatics, artificial intelligence, the time of sale and purchase of life cycles, and not a specific object. Nuclear energy, like no one else, corresponds to the role of the moderator of this process, - says the General Director of Rosatom Alexey Likhachev.

One of the main problems of nuclear energy is not technological, but psychological: Chernobyl, Fukushima, nuclear weapons testing - in general, there is cause for concern and distrust.

An important condition for the development of nuclear power is social acceptance. For nuclear power to emerge in a country, society must accept it, ”says Yukiya Amano, Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

Whatever scenarios for the development of the energy sector are built, one thing in them is invariable: the consumption of electricity in the world will grow. The population of the Earth is increasing, the demands of mankind are growing: over the past hundred years, we have consumed more energy than in the entire previous history from the creation of the world. Moreover, more than a billion people on the planet still do not have access to electricity!

Scientists predict that by 2050 another 2.5 billion more people will live on Earth; decentralization of energy and the construction of small capacities will give access to this resource to a much larger number of people and improve their quality of life. This means that the demand for electricity will grow again. And this is where nuclear power comes to the rescue: highly productive, with low emissions of pollutants and unlimited fuel reserves. In this case, we are talking not only about fossil uranium, but also about spent nuclear fuel in storage: fuel assemblies have exhausted their resource by no more than four percent, and this is a huge resource for secondary use. Not to mention the fact that reprocessing fuel from spent nuclear fuel allows us to solve the problem of irreversible disposal of weapons-grade plutonium and close the production cycle, depleting the entire resource of nuclear fuel.

The special way of Siberia

According to an agreement between the United States and Russia, each of the countries must dispose of 34 tons of weapons-grade plutonium, and the start of this work was scheduled for 2018. But so far only Russia has the technology for producing so-called MOX fuel: the world's first plant for its production is located in Zheleznogorsk (formerly Krasnoyarsk-26), at the facilities of the Mining and Chemical Combine, which is part of the Rosatom structure.

It is important to standardize the requirements for industrial safety in different jurisdictions and countries to create a safe nuclear energy, - says Pekka Lundmark, President of Fortum Corporation. - I believe that nuclear energy will play a key role, not as a single technology, but in combination with solar energy, hydropower and environmentally friendly biofuels. However, in order for nuclear power to remain competitive and continue to play an important role in the future, it also needs modernization.

At the same time, Siberia may well become the "trendsetter" in the nuclear power industry. Experts are inclined to think that this particular energy sector will be the leading one in the region.

The Siberian region has all the possibilities for the development of nuclear power, ensuring the full nuclear cycle from the extraction and processing of uranium raw materials and the manufacture of fuel assemblies to the disposal of irradiated nuclear fuel, which can ensure and optimize the functioning of modern nuclear power plants, says Igor Lobovsky. - In the long term, the energy problems of the Siberian region can be solved at the expense of nuclear energy sources, in particular, through the construction of modern nuclear power plants with VVER-1300 reactors. Yes, in accordance with the agreement between Russia and the United States on the termination of the production of weapons-grade plutonium, all nuclear reactors of the Siberian NPP were shut down in 2008, but Seversk retained a developed infrastructure and human resources, and this will significantly speed up and reduce the cost of building a new nuclear power plant, which is currently postponed until 2020.

However, efficiency, CIUM, prime cost, availability, manufacturability are far from all the requirements that are imposed on the energy sector of the future. And this is also a challenge.

I would like the energy of the future to be invisible - in the sense that we should not see its negative consequences, it should be safe, ”says Alexander Shokhin, President of the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs, Chairman of the Supervisory Board of the Global Energy Association. - The environmental negative impact, including in the same nuclear and even hydropower and thermal energy, should be minimal, and safety - maximal. I believe that the main criterion is not what, for example, the share of renewable energy, but that all types of energy must be safe and efficient.

It's hard to argue.

The annual World Energy Outlook provides an updated analysis showing what data, technology trends and policy efforts will impact the energy sector by 2040.

The International Energy Agency has released its annual World Energy Outlook (WEO-2018). Special attention this year is focused on the development of the electric power industry.

World Energy Outlook

  • New policy scenarios

According to IEA analysts, the main goals facing humanity are consistent work aimed at correcting the unsustainable environmental situation on the planet: preventing the consequences of climate change and improving air quality. The new survey highlights the role of geopolitical factors that have a complex impact on energy markets and supply security. The agency also notes the need to attract investment in the development of new energy technologies.

“The world is gradually building a different kind of energy system, but cracks have appeared in the load-bearing pillars,” the IEA says in a new survey. Solar and wind energy production costs continue to fall, while oil prices soared above $ 80 a barrel this year, and a number of countries face tough decisions to reform their oil and gas subsidies.

As the economy of Venezuela has gone into a fatal tailspin, production and reliable supplies of hydrocarbons are at high risk. The trend towards the emergence of an interconnected global gas market as a result of the growth of trade in liquefied natural gas (LNG) increases competition between suppliers, changing the idea of ​​how to manage possible supply shortages in consumer countries.

In a world in which one in eight people lacks access to electricity, new threats have emerged to existing energy systems: Generators need to be flexible and adapt to spikes in consumption and protect against cyber threats. The availability, reliability and stability of energy systems are closely related and require an integrated approach to energy policy.

Wind and solar energy are the main source of affordable electricity with low emissions, but the development of renewable energy sources imposes additional requirements on the reliability of energy systems. Energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions rose 1.6% in 2017, according to the agency. This trend continues into 2018. Energy-related air pollution continues to cause millions of premature deaths each year.

New policy scenarios

In the new survey of the world energy, the IEA does not aim to predict the future, but tries to understand the possible ways of the development of the situation and identify the interrelationships in complex energy systems. The Current Policies Scenario assumes that things will continue to evolve as they do now, and concludes that tensions will increase in all aspects of energy security. The New Policies Scenario clarifies the gap between current policies and the achievement of the Sustainable Development Scenario, as well as the need for a clean energy transition.

According to the agency's conclusions, the determining factor in the development of world energy will be the actions taken by the governments of the countries - the largest consumers of energy resources. The choices made by states will determine the development of the energy system of the future. “Our analysis shows that over 70% of global energy investments are in the hands of the state. Government decisions determine the fate of the global energy sector.


Developing the right policies and the right incentives will be critical to achieving our shared goals of securing energy supplies, reducing carbon emissions, improving air quality in urban centers, and opening up access to energy in Africa and other troubled regions, ”said the head of the International agency Fatih Birol, presenting a survey.

Thus, the scenario of the new policy assumes an increase in income by 2040 of about 1.7 billion people, most of whom will replenish the urban population of developing countries, which will lead to an increase in energy consumption by more than a quarter of the current level. If in the 2000s Europe and North America accounted for more than 40% of the global demand for energy resources, while the developing countries of Asia - about 20%, then by 2040 this situation will completely change.

The growth in energy consumption will be provided by countries with developing economies, led by India. The development of energy systems in Asian countries will depend on the supply of all existing types of energy resources, as well as technologies. Asia will account for more than half of the increase in demand for natural gas, more than 80% for oil, 100% for coal and nuclear energy, and 60% for the increase in wind and solar energy.

The shale revolution will continue to put pressure on the already established situation with the supply of oil and gas. The United States, as the world's largest producer, will squeeze out of the markets traditional hydrocarbon exporters who still rely heavily on foreign oil and gas revenues to support the development of the national economy. According to the IEA's new policy scenario, the United States will account for more than half of the global increase in oil and gas production until 2025 (about 75% for oil and 40% for gas).

By the mid-2020s, about every fifth barrel of oil and every fourth cubic meter of gas in the world will be extracted in the United States. According to the agency's forecast, oil production in the United States will grow from the end of 2018 to 2025 by another 10 million barrels of oil equivalent. NS. per day, exceeding the level of 20 thousand barrels of oil equivalent. NS. per day.

The total share of hydrocarbons in primary energy consumption has remained unchanged over the past 25 years. However, until 2040, it will gradually decrease, but it will retain its dominant position in the fuel and energy balance during this period. According to the agency's forecast, oil consumption by road transport will peak in the mid-2020s. Among the trends highlighted by the IEA, one can note an increase in the efficiency of using motor fuel in vehicles with an internal combustion engine, which will help save about 9 million barrels of oil equivalent. NS. per day for the next 22 years.

In addition, by 2040, 300 million electric vehicles will be on the road, which will reduce the consumption of "black gold" by another 3 million barrels of oil equivalent. NS. per day. However, the demand for oil from the petrochemicals, as well as cargo, sea and air transport will continue to stimulate the growth of oil consumption. The effect of plastic recycling will double, but this will help reduce global oil demand by only 1.5 million barrels of oil equivalent. NS. per day. As a result, the IEA predicts further growth in oil demand by more than 5 million barrels of oil equivalent. NS. per day, up to 106 million barrels of oil equivalent NS. per day by 2040

Natural gas consumption will overtake coal in volume by 2030, which will bring gas to second place after oil in the global fuel and energy balance. Russia will remain the world's largest gas exporter, opening new routes for Russian gas supplies to Asian markets. While Europe will retain its position as the largest importer of natural gas.

According to the International Energy Agency, gas demand in European countries, peaking in 2010 at 545 billion cubic meters. m, a four-year period of decline in consumption has already passed. However, since 2014, low gas prices and an increase in demand from the electric power industry have provoked an increase in gas consumption in Europe by 4-7% per year.

In the long term, the priority given to the development of renewable energy sources in the EU may provoke a slowdown in this growth and a gradual decrease in gas demand by 2040. However, due to a drop in natural gas production within Europe, dependence on gas imports will grow in the near future. According to the IEA's findings, even in the event of a noticeable reduction in gas consumption in the EU, by the end of the forecast period, Russia will provide approximately 37% of imported gas to the EU, or 140 billion cubic meters. m out of 385 billion cubic meters. m in 2040

Thus, in the next 22 years, the Russian Federation, having passed a period of record growth in supplies to the European direction, may face a collapse in gas exports to Europe by about 60 billion cubic meters. m compared to the current level. The growing share of wind and solar energy in the energy systems of European countries will reduce the demand for gas, and the modernization of buildings already built will help reduce its consumption in heating systems.

Electricity as the star of the modern energy show

According to the IEA, electricity generated from renewable energy sources provides a quarter of humanity's needs. Solar panels have fallen in price so much that the agency predicts a possible slowdown in the development of this segment due to lower investment. A century after its inception, the electricity industry is undergoing a period of significant change. The share of electricity in final consumption of energy resources has approached 20%, and, according to the agency's forecasts, it will continue to grow to 40% by 2040. Demand for electricity in the forecast period will grow by 60%, developing countries will account for 90% of this increase.

At WEO-2018, the agency presented a new methodology for assessing the competitiveness of various generation options based on evolving technological costs, as well as the return of power systems at different times. Large-scale electrification is becoming the choice of countries with a focus on light industry, digital technologies and the development of the service segment. “In countries with developed economies, the increase in demand for electricity shows low rates.

However, investments in the electricity sector remain huge amid infrastructure upgrades and changes taking place within generating complexes. Electricity is the star of the show, but how bright will it shine in the future? In developing countries, where the IEA predicts a doubling in electricity demand, the main challenges are the availability of electricity, as well as the reduction of harmful emissions from its production.

When the state determines trends in the development of the electric power industry, distortions are possible, which in the future fall on the shoulders of consumers with an unbearable burden. The International Energy Agency estimates that in the highly regulated regions of China, India, Southeast Asia and the Middle East, about 350 GW of excess capacity has already been created, resulting in additional costs for consumers. The agency in its new study of world energy notes the key role of the state in transforming the energy system, but the cost of mistakes made by governments along the way may be too great for the citizens of these countries. published by

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Today, the entire world is supplied with electricity through the combustion of coal and gas (fossil fuels), the exploitation of water flows and the control of nuclear reactions. These approaches are quite effective, but in the future we will have to abandon them, turning to such a direction as alternative energy.

Much of this need is due to the fact that fossil fuels are limited. In addition, traditional methods of generating electricity are one of the factors of environmental pollution. That's why the world needs a "healthy" alternative.

We offer our version of the TOP of unconventional methods of generating energy, which in the future may become a replacement for the usual power plants.

7th place. Distributed energy

Before considering alternative energy sources, let us examine one interesting concept that, in the future, is capable of changing the structure of the energy system.

Today, electricity is generated in large stations, transmitted to distribution networks and supplied to our homes. The distributed approach implies a gradual abandonment of centralized electricity production... This can be achieved through the construction of small energy sources in close proximity to a consumer or a group of consumers.

The following can be used as energy sources:

  • microturbine power plants;
  • gas turbine power plants;
  • steam boilers;
  • solar panels;
  • wind turbines;
  • heat pumps, etc.

Such mini-power plants for the home will be connected to the general network. Surplus energy will flow there, and if necessary, the power grid can compensate for the lack of power, for example, when solar panels perform worse due to cloudy weather.

However, the implementation of this concept today and in the near future is unlikely, if we talk about a global scale. This is primarily due to the high cost of the transition from centralized to distributed energy.

6th place. Thunderstorm energy

Why generate electricity when you can simply "catch" it out of thin air? On average, one lightning strike is 5 billion Joules of energy, which is equivalent to burning 145 liters of gasoline. Theoretically, thunderstorm power plants will reduce the cost of electricity significantly.

Everything will look like this: stations are located in regions with increased thunderstorm activity, “collect” discharges and accumulate energy. After that, the energy is supplied to the network. It is possible to catch lightning with the help of giant lightning rods, but the main problem remains - to accumulate as much lightning energy as possible in a split second. At the present stage, one cannot do without supercapacitors and voltage converters, but in the future a more delicate approach may appear.

If we talk about electricity "out of thin air", one cannot even recall the adherents of the formation of free energy. For example, Nikola Tesla at one time ostensibly demonstrated a device for obtaining electric current from the ether to operate a car.

5th place. Combustion of renewable fuels

Instead of coal, power plants can burn the so-called “ biofuel ". These are processed plant and animal raw materials, waste products of organisms and some industrial waste of organic origin. Examples include common firewood, wood chips and biodiesel, which is found at gas stations.

In the energy sector, wood chips are most commonly used. It is harvested from logging or woodworking industries. After crushing, it is pressed into fuel granules and in this form is sent to the TPP.

By 2019, Belgium should have completed the construction of the largest power plant that will operate on biofuels. According to forecasts, it will have to produce 215 MW of electricity. This is enough for 450,000 homes.

Interesting fact! Many countries practice the cultivation of the so-called "energy forest" - trees and shrubs that are best suited for energy needs.

It is still unlikely that alternative energy will develop in the direction of biofuels, because there are more promising solutions.

4th place. Tidal and wave power plants

Traditional hydroelectric power plants operate according to the following principle:

  1. The water pressure is supplied to the turbines.
  2. The turbines start to turn.
  3. The rotation is transmitted to generators that generate electricity.

The construction of a hydroelectric power station is more expensive than a thermal power plant and is possible only in places with large reserves of water energy. But the biggest problem is the damage to ecosystems due to the need to build dams.

Tidal power plants operate on a similar principle, but use the power of ebb and flow to generate energy.

"Water" types of alternative energy include such an interesting area as wave energy. Its essence boils down to the generation of electricity by using the energy of the waves of the ocean, which is much higher than the tidal wave. The most powerful wave power plant today is Pelamis P-750 , which generates 2.25 MW of electricity.

Swinging on the waves, these huge convectors ("snakes") bend, as a result of which hydraulic pistons move inside. They pump oil through hydraulic motors, which in turn turn electric generators. The resulting electricity is delivered to the shore via a cable that runs along the bottom. In the future, the number of convectors will be multiplied and the station will be able to generate up to 21 MW.

3rd place. Geothermal stations

Alternative energy is well developed in the geothermal direction. Geothermal plants generate electricity by actually converting the energy of the earth, or rather, the thermal energy of underground sources.

There are several types of such power plants, but in all cases they are based on the same principle of work: steam from an underground source rises up the well and rotates a turbine connected to an electric generator. Today, the practice is widespread when water is pumped into an underground reservoir to a great depth, where it evaporates under the influence of high temperatures and enters the turbines in the form of steam under pressure.

Areas with a large number of geysers and open thermal springs, which are heated by volcanic activity, are best suited for geothermal energy purposes.

So, in California there is a whole geothermal complex called " Geysers ". It unites 22 stations generating 955 MW. The energy source in this case is a magma chamber 13 km in diameter at a depth of 6.4 km.

2nd place. Wind power plants

Wind energy is one of the most popular and promising sources for generating electricity.

The principle of operation of a wind turbine is simple:

  • under the influence of wind force, the blades rotate;
  • rotation is transmitted to the generator;
  • the generator generates alternating current;
  • the resulting energy is usually stored in batteries.

The power of a wind generator depends on the span of the blades and its height. Therefore, they are installed in open areas, fields, hills and in the coastal zone. Installations with 3 blades and a vertical axis of rotation work most efficiently.

Interesting fact! In fact, wind power is a form of solar power. This is explained by the fact that winds arise due to uneven heating of the earth's atmosphere and surface by the sun's rays.

You don't need deep knowledge of engineering to make a wind turbine. So, many craftsmen were able to afford to disconnect from the general power grid and switch to alternative energy.


Vestas V-164 is the most powerful wind turbine to date. It generates 8 MW.

For the production of electricity on an industrial scale, wind farms are used, consisting of many wind turbines. The largest is the power plant " Viola "Located in California. Its capacity is 1550 MW.

1st place. Solar power plants (SES)

Solar energy has the greatest prospects. The technology for converting solar radiation with the help of solar cells is developing from year to year, becoming more and more efficient.

It is not a secret for anyone that the resources used by mankind today are finite, moreover, their further extraction and use can lead not only to an energy, but also to an ecological catastrophe. The resources traditionally used by mankind - coal, gas and oil - will run out after several decades, and measures must be taken now, in our time. Of course, one can hope that we will again find some rich deposit, just as it was in the first half of the last century, but scientists are sure that such large deposits no longer exist. But in any case, even the discovery of new deposits will only postpone the inevitable, it is necessary to find ways to produce alternative energy, and switch to renewable resources such as wind, sun, geothermal energy, energy of water streams and others, and along with this, it is necessary to continue developing energy-saving technologies.

In this article, we will consider several of the most promising, in the opinion of modern scientists, ideas on which the energy of the future will be built.

Solar stations

People have long wondered whether it was possible to heat water under the sun's rays, dry clothes and earthenware before sending it to the oven, but these methods cannot be called effective. The first technical means that convert solar energy appeared in the 18th century. French scientist J. Buffon showed an experiment in which he was able to ignite a dry tree from a distance of about 70 meters with the help of a large concave mirror in clear weather. His compatriot, the famous scientist A. Lavoisier, used lenses to concentrate the energy of the sun, and in England they created biconvex glass, which, focusing the sun's rays, melted cast iron in just a few minutes.

Naturalists have carried out many experiments that proved that suns on earth are possible. However, a solar battery that would convert solar energy into mechanical energy appeared relatively recently, in 1953. It was created by scientists from the US National Aerospace Agency. Already in 1959, a solar battery was first used to equip a space satellite.

Perhaps even then, realizing that such batteries are much more efficient in space, scientists came up with the idea of ​​creating space solar stations, because in an hour the sun can generate as much energy as all mankind does not consume in a year, so why not use it? What will the solar energy industry be like in the future?

On the one hand, it seems that the use of solar energy is ideal. However, the cost of a huge space solar station is very high, and besides, it will be expensive to operate. Over time, when new technologies for the delivery of goods into space, as well as new materials, are introduced, the implementation of such a project will become possible, but for now we can only use relatively small batteries on the planet's surface. Many will say that this is also not bad. Yes, it is possible in a private house, but to supply power to large cities, respectively, you need either a lot of solar panels or technology that will make them more efficient.

The economic side of the issue is also present here: any budget will suffer greatly if it is entrusted with the task of transferring an entire city (or an entire country) to solar panels. It would seem that it is possible to oblige the residents of cities to pay some amounts for re-equipment, but in this case they will be unhappy, because if people were willing to go for such expenses, they would have done it themselves long ago: everyone has the opportunity to buy a solar battery.

There is another paradox with solar energy: production costs. Converting the sun's energy into electricity directly is not the most efficient thing. Until now, no better way has been found than using the sun's rays to heat water, which, turning into steam, in turn rotates the dynamo. In this case, the energy loss is minimal. Humanity wants to use "green" solar panels and solar stations to conserve resources on earth, but such a project will require a huge amount of the same resources, and "non-green" energy. For example, in France, a solar power plant was recently built with an area of ​​about two square kilometers. The construction cost was around 110 million euros, excluding operating costs. With all this, it should be borne in mind that the service life of such mechanisms is about 25 years.

Wind

Wind energy has also been used by people since antiquity, the simplest example being sailing and windmills. Windmills are still in use today, and they are especially effective in areas with constant winds, such as on the coast. Scientists are constantly putting forward ideas on how to modernize existing devices for converting wind energy, one of them is wind turbines in the form of soaring turbines. Due to the constant rotation, they could "hang" in the air at a distance of several hundred meters from the ground, where the wind is strong and constant. This would help in the electrification of rural areas where standard wind turbines cannot be used. In addition, such soaring turbines could be equipped with Internet modules, with the help of which people would be provided with access to the world wide web.

Tides and waves

The boom in solar and wind energy is gradually passing, and other natural energy has attracted the interest of researchers. The use of ebb and flow is considered more promising. Already now, about a hundred companies around the world are dealing with this issue, there are also several projects that have proven the effectiveness of this method of generating electricity. The advantage over solar energy is that the losses when converting one energy into another are minimal: a tidal wave rotates a huge turbine, which generates electricity.

The Oyster Project is the idea of ​​installing a swivel valve on the ocean floor that will bring water to the shore, thereby rotating a simple hydroelectric turbine. Just one such installation could provide electricity to a small neighborhood.

Already in Australia, tidal waves are successfully used: in the city of Perth, desalination plants have been installed that operate on this type of energy. Their work makes it possible to provide fresh water for about half a million people. Natural energy and industry can also be combined in this energy production branch.

The use is somewhat different from the technologies that we are used to seeing in river hydroelectric power plants. Often, hydroelectric power plants harm the environment: adjacent territories are flooded, the ecosystem is destroyed, but stations operating on tidal waves are much safer in this regard.

Human energy

One of the most fantastic projects on our list is the use of the energy of living people. It sounds overwhelming and even somewhat terrifying, but not all that scary. Scientists cherish the idea of ​​how to use the mechanical energy of motion. These projects are about microelectronics and nanotechnology with low energy consumption. While it sounds like a utopia, there are no real developments, but the idea is very interesting and does not leave the minds of scientists. Agree, devices that, like an automatic winding watch, will be charged from the fact that a finger is swiped over the sensor, or from the fact that a tablet or phone simply dangles in a bag while walking, will be very convenient. Not to mention clothes, which, filled with various microdevices, could convert the energy of a person's movement into electricity.

At Berkeley, in Lawrence's laboratory, for example, scientists tried to implement the idea of ​​using viruses to pressurize electricity. Small mechanisms powered by motion are also available, but so far this technology has not been put on stream. Yes, the global energy crisis cannot be dealt with in this way: how many people will have to “pedal” to make the whole plant work? But as one of the measures applied in the complex, the theory is quite viable.

Such technologies will be especially effective in hard-to-reach places, at polar stations, in the mountains and taiga, among travelers and tourists who do not always have the opportunity to charge their gadgets, but it is important to stay in touch, especially if a group is in a critical situation. How many things could be prevented if people always had a reliable communication device that does not depend on the "socket".

Hydrogen fuel cells

Perhaps, every car owner, looking at the indicator of the amount of gasoline approaching zero, had the idea of ​​how great it would be if the car worked on water. But now its atoms have come to the attention of scientists as real objects of energy. The fact is that particles of hydrogen - the most common gas in the universe - contain an enormous amount of energy. Moreover, the engine burns this gas with practically no by-products, that is, we get a very environmentally friendly fuel.

Hydrogen is fueled by some ISS modules and shuttles, but on Earth it exists primarily in the form of compounds such as water. In the eighties in Russia there were developments of aircraft using hydrogen as fuel, these technologies were even applied in practice, and experimental models proved their effectiveness. When the hydrogen is separated, it is transferred to a special fuel cell, whereupon electricity can be generated directly. This is not the energy of the future, it is already a reality. Similar cars are already being produced in fairly large quantities. Honda, in order to emphasize the versatility of the energy source and the car in general, conducted an experiment in which the car was connected to the electrical home network, but not in order to get recharged. A car can provide energy to a private house for several days, or drive almost five hundred kilometers without refueling.

The only drawback of such an energy source at the moment is the relatively high cost of such environmentally friendly cars, and, of course, a fairly small number of hydrogen refueling stations, but in many countries they are already planned to be built. For example, Germany already has a plan to install one hundred filling stations by 2017.

Warmth of the earth

Converting thermal energy into electricity is the essence of geothermal energy. In some countries where it is difficult to use other industries, it is used quite widely. For example, in the Philippines, 27% of all electricity comes from geothermal plants, while in Iceland this figure is about 30%. The essence of this method of producing energy is quite simple, the mechanism is similar to a simple steam engine. Before the supposed "lake" of magma, it is necessary to drill a well through which water is supplied. On contact with hot magma, the water instantly turns into steam. It rises where it turns a mechanical turbine, thereby generating electricity.

The future of geothermal energy is to find large "storage" for magma. For example, in the aforementioned Iceland, it succeeded: red-hot magma in a split second turned all the injected water into steam with a temperature of about 450 degrees Celsius, which is an absolute record. Such high-pressure steam is able to increase the efficiency of a geothermal station several times, this can become an impetus for the development of geothermal energy throughout the world, especially in areas saturated with volcanoes and thermal springs.

Use of nuclear waste

Nuclear energy, at one time, made a splash. This was until people realized the full danger of this energy industry. Accidents are possible, no one is immune from such cases, but they are very rare, but radioactive waste appears stably and until recently scientists could not solve this problem. The point is that uranium rods - the traditional "fuel" of nuclear power plants, can be used only by 5%. After working out this small part, the entire rod is sent to the "landfill".

Previously, a technology was used in which the rods were submerged in water, which slows down the neutrons, maintaining a steady reaction. Now, instead of water, they began to use liquid sodium. This replacement makes it possible not only to use the entire volume of uranium, but also to process tens of thousands of tons of radioactive waste.

It is important to rid the planet of nuclear waste, but the technology itself has one "but". Uranium is a resource, and its reserves on Earth are finite. If the entire planet is transferred exclusively to energy obtained from nuclear power plants (for example, in the United States, nuclear power plants produce only 20% of all electricity consumed), uranium reserves will be depleted quite quickly, and this will again lead humanity to the threshold of an energy crisis, so that nuclear power , albeit a modernized one, only a temporary measure.

Vegetable fuel

Even Henry Ford, having created his "Model T", hoped that it would already work on biofuels. However, at that time, new oil fields were discovered, and the need for alternative energy sources disappeared for several more decades, but now it is returning again.

Over the past fifteen years, the use of plant fuels such as ethanol and biodiesel has increased severalfold. They are used both as independent energy sources and as additives to gasoline. Some time ago, hopes were pinned on a special millet culture called "canola". It is completely unsuitable for food either for humans or for livestock, but it has a high oil content. From this oil and began to produce "biodiesel". But this culture will take up too much space if you try to grow it enough to provide fuel for at least part of the planet.

Now scientists are talking about the use of algae. Their oil content is about 50%, which will make it just as easy to extract oil, and the waste can be turned into fertilizers, on the basis of which new algae will be grown. The idea is considered interesting, but has not yet proven its viability: a publication on successful experiments in this area has not yet been published.

Thermonuclear fusion

The future energy of the world, according to modern scientists, is impossible without technology. This, at the moment, is the most promising development, in which billions of dollars are already being invested.

Fission energy is used. It is dangerous because there is a threat of an uncontrolled reaction that will destroy the reactor and lead to the release of a huge amount of radioactive substances: perhaps everyone remembers the accident at the Chernobyl nuclear power plant.

Thermonuclear fusion reactions, as the name suggests, use the energy released by the fusion of atoms. As a result, unlike atomic fission, no radioactive waste is generated.

The main problem is that as a result of thermonuclear fusion, a substance is formed that has a temperature so high that it can destroy the entire reactor.

The future is reality. And fantasies are inappropriate here, at the moment, the construction of a reactor has already begun on the territory of France. Several billion dollars have been invested in a pilot project, which is funded by many countries, which, in addition to the EU, include China and Japan, the United States, Russia and others. Initially, it was planned to launch the first experiments in 2016, but calculations showed that the budget was too small (instead of 5 billion, it took 19), and the launch was postponed for another 9 years. Perhaps in a few years we will see what thermonuclear power is capable of.

Problems of the Present and Opportunities for the Future

Not only scientists, but also science fiction writers give many ideas for the implementation of the technology of the future in the energy sector, but everyone agrees that so far none of the proposed options can fully meet all the needs of our civilization. For example, if all cars in the United States run on biofuels, canola fields will have to plant an area equal to half the entire country, regardless of the fact that there is not so much land suitable for farming in the United States. Moreover, so far all methods of producing alternative energy are expensive. Perhaps every ordinary city dweller agrees that it is important to use environmentally friendly, renewable resources, but not in the case when they are told the cost of such a transition at the moment. Scientists still have a lot of work to do in this area. New discoveries, new materials, new ideas - all this will help humanity to successfully cope with the impending resource crisis. The planets can be solved only by complex measures. In some areas, it is more convenient to use the production of energy with the help of wind, somewhere - solar panels, and so on. But, perhaps, the main factor will be the reduction of energy consumption in general and the creation of energy-saving technologies. Each person should understand that they are responsible for the planet, and everyone should ask themselves the question: "What energy do I choose for the future?" Before moving on to other resources, everyone should realize that this is really necessary. Only with an integrated approach will it be possible to solve the problem of energy consumption.

Scientists are rushing to find sources of energy for the future to improve the environment and reduce dependence on oil and other fossil fuels.

Some predict what the energy of the future is. Others say the sun is the way. Wilder schemes include wind turbines high in the air or an antimatter engine.

Consider what the energy of the future will be in the 21st century and beyond.

Antimatter energy

Antimatter is analogous to matter, made up of antiparticles, which has the same mass as ordinary matter, but with opposite atomic properties known as spin and charge.

When opposite particles meet, they annihilate each other and release a huge amount of energy in accordance with Einstein's famous equation E = mc2.

Future energy in the form of antimatter is already being used in the medical imaging technique known as positron emission tomography (PET), but its use as a potential fuel source remains in the realm of science fiction.

The problem with antimatter is that there is very little of it in the universe. Antimatter can be produced in laboratories, but currently only in very small quantities and at prohibitively high prices. And even if the problem of production can be solved, the main question still remains how to store what tends to destroy itself upon contact with ordinary matter, as well as how to use this energy of antimatter, once created.

Scientists are conducting research to create antimatter that could one day ferry humanity to the stars, but dreams of antimatter-powered starships are still far off, experts agree.

Hydrogen fuel cells

At first glance, hydrogen fuel cells may seem like an ideal alternative to fossil fuels. They can generate electricity using only hydrogen and oxygen without much pollution.

A car running on hydrogen fuel cells will not only be more efficient than a car running on an internal combustion engine, but also have a single emission of water.

Unfortunately, while hydrogen is the most abundant element in the universe, most of it is associated with molecules like water. This means that pure, unbound hydrogen must be produced from other resources, which in many cases are associated with fossil fuels. If so, then many of the environmental benefits of hydrogen as a fuel are negligible. Another problem with hydrogen is that it cannot be compressed easily or safely and requires special storage tanks. In addition, for reasons not fully understood, small hydrogen atoms tend to permeate through tank materials.

Nuclear

Albert Einstein told us that the line between matter and energy is fuzzy. Energy of the future can be produced by splitting or fusing nuclei - processes known as nuclear fission reactions and the formation of heavier nuclei where it is released.

It releases harmful radiation and produces large quantities of radioactive material that can remain active for thousands of years and can destroy entire ecosystems if released. There is also concern that nuclear material could be used in weapons.

Currently, most nuclear power plants use fission and production requires maintaining the required temperatures.

Also known is a natural phenomenon called sonoluminescence.

Sonoluminescence may one day become a means of possessing giant nuclear and thermonuclear reactors in a glass of liquid.

Sonoluminescence refers to a flash of light where special fluids create high-energy sound waves. Sound waves rip apart the liquid and produce tiny bubbles that expand rapidly and then collapse violently. Light is produced in the process, but more importantly, the insides of the exploding bubbles reach extremely high temperatures and pressures. Scientists speculate that this may be enough for nuclear fusion.

Scientists are also experimenting with methods to create controlled nuclear fusion by accelerating “heavy” hydrogen ions in a powerful electric field.

Ocean thermal energy conversion

Oceans cover 70 percent of the Earth, and water is the natural solar collector of energy for the future. The transformation of ocean heat occurs by using the temperature differences between the surface water heated by the sun and the water in the cold ocean depths to generate electricity.

Ocean thermal energy conversion can work according to the following principle:

  • Closed loop: a liquid with a low boiling point, such as ammonia, is boiled using warm seawater. The resulting steam is used to operate a power generating turbine, then the steam is cooled with cold seawater.
  • Open cycle: warm seawater is converted into low pressure steam which is used to generate electricity. The steam is cooled and converted into useful fresh water with cold seawater.
  • Hybrid Cycle: A closed cycle is used to generate electricity, which is used to create the low pressure environment required for an open cycle.

Thermal energy from the ocean is also used to extract fresh water and nutrient-rich seawater extracted from the depths of the ocean for the cultivation of marine organisms and plants. The main disadvantage of ocean thermal energy is that it is necessary to work at such small temperature differences, generally around 20 degrees Celsius where the efficiency is from 1 to 3 percent.

Hydropower

Falling, leaking or otherwise moving water has been harnessed since ancient times to generate electricity.

Hydropower provides about 20 percent of the world's electricity.

Until recently, it was believed that the water energy of the future is a rich natural resource that does not require additional fuel and does not cause pollution.

Recent research, however, disputes some of these claims and suggests that hydroelectric dams can produce significant amounts of carbon dioxide and methane through the breakdown of submerged plant material. In some cases, these emissions compete with those of fossil fuel power plants. Another disadvantage of dams is that people often need to be relocated. In the case of the construction of dams in the Three Gorges in China, which became the largest dam in the world, 1.9 million people were displaced, and historical sites were flooded and lost.

Biomass

The energy source of the future is biomass or biofuels, which involves the release of chemical resources stored in organic matter such as wood, crops and animal waste. These materials are burned directly to generate heat, or refined to create alcoholic fuels such as ethanol.

But unlike some other renewable energy sources, biomass energy is not clean because burning organic matter produces a lot of carbon dioxide. However, you can compensate or eliminate this difference by planting fast growing trees and grasses for fuel. Scientists are also experimenting with using bacteria to break down biomass and generate hydrogen for use as fuel.

One interesting but controversial biofuel alternative involves a process known as thermal conversion.

Unlike conventional biofuels, thermal conversion can convert almost any type of organic matter into high quality oil, with water as its only by-product.

However, it remains to be seen whether the companies that patented the process can produce enough oil for this energy of the future to become a viable alternative to fuel.

Oil

Some call it black gold. Whole empires are based on this, over which wars are waged. One of the reasons why oil or crude oil is so valuable is because it can be converted into a variety of products, from kerosene to plastic and asphalt. Whether this is the source of energy for the future is hotly debated.

Estimates of how much oil is left in the ground vary widely. Some scientists predict that oil reserves will peak and then decline rapidly; others believe that enough new reserves will be discovered to meet the world's energy needs for several more decades.

Like coal and natural gas, oil is relatively cheap compared to other alternative fuels, but it comes with higher environmental costs. The use of oil produces large amounts of carbon dioxide, and oil spills can damage fragile ecosystems.

Wind

Taking the concept of windmills one step further and higher, scientists want to create power plants in the sky, windmills floating in the air at an altitude of 1000 meters. The screw device will stabilize in one place and the electricity will be supplied to the ground through the cable.

Wind power currently accounts for only 0.1 percent of global electricity demand. This number is expected to increase as wind is one of the purest forms of energy and can generate energy as long as the wind blows.

The problem, of course, is that the winds don't always blow, and wind power cannot be relied on to generate constant electricity. There is also concern that wind farms can affect local weather in a way that remains to be fully understood.

Scientists hope that raising windmills into the sky will solve these problems, since the winds at altitude blow much stronger and more consistently at higher altitudes.

Coal

Coal was the fuel that set in motion the industrial revolution and has since played an increasingly important role in meeting the world's energy needs.

The main advantage of coal is that there is a lot of it. Enough to hold out for another 200-300 years at current consumption rates.

While its abundance makes it very economical, when coal burns it releases sulfur and nitrogen impurities into the air, which can combine with water in the atmosphere to form acid rain. Burning coal also produces large amounts of carbon dioxide, which most climatologists believe contributes to global warming. Serious efforts are being made to find new ways to reduce waste and by-products from coal mining.

Solar energy

Solar energy does not require any additional fuel and pollution does not occur. Sunlight can be concentrated as heat or converted to electricity using a photovoltaic or photovoltaic effect through synchronized mirrors that track the sun's movement across the sky. Scientists have also developed methods of harnessing future solar power to replace a gas engine by heating hydrogen gas in a reservoir that expands and drives a generator.

The disadvantages of solar energy include high start-up costs as well as the need for large spaces. Also for most alternatives, the future solar output is subject to the vagaries of air pollution and weather that can block sunlight.