Why do you need to rejoice at the rains and cold in the summer of 2017, because the most frequent epithet in relation to June in Moscow sounded evil "well, damn summer", or sad "when will this disgrace end"?

Meteorologists cannot console and, it seems, are not going to, they urge to reconcile:
The alternation of cold and hot periods will accelerate due to global warming and an uneven increase in temperature on the planet, the director of the Hydrometeorological Center of Russia Roman Vilfand said at a press conference on Wednesday.
“During the period of global warming, the range, amplitude, variations, variability will increase, the frequency of very cold and hot periods, dry and rainy periods will increase,” said Wilfand.
He explained that this is due to the fact that the temperature on the planet rises unevenly: in the equatorial territories, warming is less noticeable than at the poles, and as a result, the temperature difference between them decreases.
“This temperature difference between the equator and the pole is the basis for circulation in the atmosphere,” said Wilfand.

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Seriously, in great detail and purely scientific about the causes of the weather anomaly, it has already been said here -
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And now, purely everyday - let's look for a damn dozen reasons: why is it worth rejoicing at the merlehlund outside the window and, in spite of “all the devils,” not to lose heart?

Well, firstly, because we can’t change anything, and the textbook “if you don’t know how to change, adapt” has not been canceled, and no alternative to this recommendation has yet been found.
And, secondly, having a positive outlook on the world, it is quite possible to find pluses in minuses and the advice "if you got a lemon - make lemonade out of it" is quite right, in this case.
Let's try to make a refreshing lemonade from sour lemon with a bitterness from the summer 2017 harvest?
It turned out that I was not the first to ask this question and therefore there is something to start from -

10 pluses of a cold summer 2017 in Moscow
Why should Muscovites rejoice in the cold summer of 2017?
This summer, Muscovites most often talk about the weather, because the townspeople have not yet received real warmth. Although forecasters promised that there will be heat in Moscow, the temperature remains below normal. In fact, the cool summer in the metropolis has its advantages. The RIAMO correspondent found 10 bonuses that we will remember with longing during the heat.

1. Eternal greenery
Lilacs, apple trees and cherries bloom in the capital later than usual this season, which means they fade later. How many photo shoots have been made among flowering apple trees in Kolomenskoye alone! The weather seemed to have “canned” the flowers so that everyone could enjoy their aroma, take a selfie and find the coveted lilac five-leafed leaf.


2. Passengers don't sweat
V public transport Moscow is cool. Nobody presses against you in the subway with a sweaty body and does not wave a fan right in front of your nose. Bare feet do not stick to the seats, and shirts and blouses do not get wet, which cannot but please the girls. In the subway, there are practically no grandmothers dying from the stuffy atmosphere, fanning themselves with newspapers, and obese men spreading along the doors with the inscription: "Do not lean against."

3. Saving on wardrobe
A cool summer is both a pain and a relief for the capital's fashionistas. Of course, they have not yet had the opportunity to walk new sundresses and sandals, but all June they could wear a collection of shoes and dresses for the fall / spring season or not get out of jeans and sneakers at all, saving both money and time for shopping.
Tights and closed shoes - again, savings on epilation and pedicure. Any master will tell you that most women resort to a beauty salon on three occasions: before a date, a vacation, and when the heat comes. Cold June 2017 allowed Muscovites not to spend money on traditional summer procedures for now.

4. Clean curbs
On hot summer evenings, beer lovers on the street leave batteries from beer cans and bottles on the curbs. The same picture is observed in the morning on benches, playgrounds, at the entrances of residential buildings, not to mention Moscow squares, parks and beaches! Usually, after a hot weekend, garbage is removed from there by dump trucks. The cool weather makes the city cleaner, because you can't sit on a beer bench in the rain.

5. Heaven for white collars
Employees of banks and government agencies, where there is a dress code, are most happy about the cool summer. Tights, tight pencil skirts, suffocating ties, trousers and jackets are not so offensive to wear at plus 10 as at plus 30. Office plankton now certainly does not envy the bare knees of Muscovites of "free" professions.

6. Fats under cover
Those who did not have time to lose weight by the summer may not take a steam bath - until they "cooked" to the fullest, extra pounds can be hidden under cardigans, sweatshirts and raincoats. Cool June gives one last chance to get in shape, because the heat will come someday and Muscovites will still have to undress.

7. Less fluff and dust
Due to frequent precipitation and wind, it is easy to breathe in Moscow this summer. The streets are less dusty and poplar fluff which is nailed to the ground by rain, and the air quality in general is noticeably better. There are also fewer flies and wasps in the city, which usually appear in the summer. So Muscovites can breathe deeply.

8. No summer blues
Sitting in the office when the rain is pouring outside the window is not at all as offensive as in the heat. When it's summer with warm evenings and crowds of people walking, working all day is simply unbearable. Then you involuntarily begin to envy the black envy of downshifters. While it's cold outside, vacation can be saved until better times.

9. Blankets and mulled wine
Muscovites flock to summer verandas this summer not to cool off, but to warm up. The capital's cafes and restaurants offer the usual autumn bonuses - cozy blankets, warming drinks and gas lamps. Wrapped in a blanket and sipping mulled wine, you can dream of a hot summer in Moscow.


10. Remember Summer 2010
While some complain about the cold, others recall the abnormal heat in Moscow in the summer of 2010. For several weeks, the air temperature in the capital went off scale and broke records, and smog hung over the city from forest fires. Better rain and wind than fumes and sweltering heat.


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I would add a couple of more significant ones, in my opinion -
11. Exams and session
Applicants and students do not have to make titanic efforts to prepare for exams, instead of sunbathing, swimming, rollerblading in parks and squares, or loafing around in summer cottages. Gnawing the granite of science, when outside the window you can find it psychologically more comfortable ...
12. Museums, theaters and exhibitions
Visiting theaters, museums, exhibitions - instead of beaches and picnics with their invariable "shashlik under cognac" - "feast of the spirit", instead of "feast of the flesh", to which the rainy and windy summer inclines simply imperatively.
13. Self-improvement and education of optimism
Honing the ability to find pluses in minuses, "make lemonade out of the lemon you got", and bacon out of the "fooled pig" - this is the main advantage of the first month of summer that did not live up to expectations ...
The looking for a damn dozen has accumulated, as you can see ... Who is more?

In the next 10 years, the climate is likely to be undulating, with frequent changes of higher and more low temperatures... About it " Russian newspaper"said the head of the Hydrometeorological Center Roman Vilfand, answering the question:" What happens to the weather in Central Russia and will we have summer this year? "

"V climatic characteristics now variability prevails, explains Vilfand. - Climatologists attribute this to global warming. First of all, high latitudes get warmer and the temperature difference between the equator and the poles decreases. It seems that if there is global warming, then the air temperature should rise everywhere. But in fact, this leads to other processes - namely to undulating changes. "

As the chief forecaster of the country explains, if for our latitudes the west-east transfer was always habitual air masses, now such air circulation has been established that cold arctic winds blow towards us more often. And a similar situation, unfortunately, may be repeated over the next 10 years.

“There will be less normal average temperatures, but the alternation of rainy and dry periods is increasing,” explains Wilfand. Also possible and abnormal warm winters, and frost in summer.

As for the immediate summer prospects for residents of Central Russia, then, according to the head of the Hydrometeorological Center, July still promises to please Muscovites and residents of central regions warm weather, which will be several degrees higher than the norm. And even a full-fledged swimming season can be opened. True, while the water temperature in Moscow and Moscow region reservoirs does not exceed 14 degrees. Only very seasoned people will like this water.

The next week, as the head of the laboratory of the Hydrometeorological Center Lyudmila Parshina told RG, moderately warm temperatures are expected in the capital region. Daytime temperatures will fluctuate between 22-24 degrees, night -10-12 degrees. Chance of rain.

As for other Russian regions, the temperature background is different everywhere - up to 40-degree heat, as in Novosibirsk, Tomsk, Kemerovo regions and in the Altai Territory, until night frosts, as in the Murmansk region.

The alternation of rain and drought will be more frequent. Abnormally warm winters and frosts in summer are possible

In the south of Russia, in the Stavropol region and in most of the republics North Caucasus, in Chechnya, Ingushetia, Kabardino-Balkaria, the wind will increase up to 20 meters per second, daytime temperatures will not exceed 26 degrees. Eastern Ciscaucasia will be in warmer air - there will be up to 28 degrees during the day. On the Black sea coast- 20-25 degrees. The weather will improve at the beginning of the week. On the Black Sea coast it will get warmer up to 28 degrees, in the Sochi area - up to 30 degrees. The Black Sea warmed up to 22-23 degrees.

It appeared back in 1975: it was mentioned by Wallace Broker in an article on climate change trends as a result of man-made factors. These trends are constantly monitored by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. And the Kyoto Protocol, signed at the UN conference in 1997, is designed to minimize greenhouse gas emissions by the participating countries. Therefore, on the one hand, climate change on Earth is under international control.

On the other hand, global climatic processes raise questions among ordinary inhabitants of the planet, and in particular, the Moscow region. Since there is global warming in the world, why is the beginning of summer in the capital region so cold?

However, experts say that the climate is not an area where it is worth drawing superficial conclusions, despite the obvious changes.

The head of the Situation Center of Roshydromet Yuri Varakin emphasizes: in order to confirm or deny that certain changes are taking place in the climate, it is necessary to monitor the situation for years, and the climatic "step" is thirty years. According to observations over thirty years, statistical indicators are displayed: averages for a day or for a specific date, an average daily temperature or Maximum temperature that has been observed for thirty years, etc.

Moscow and Moscow region - in the comfort zone

Moscow and the Moscow region are prosperous regions compared to those places where fires, droughts or floods are taking place right now.

“We do not have such natural disasters as in Central and South Asia. Every year thousands of people die from floods, and not because a tree fell on its head, but because as a result of a tropical downpour it blows away houses. Now there is an abnormal heat in Japan: several children have died from heatstroke, hundreds of people with overheating are in hospitals, ”says Yuri Varakin.

However, the cold that began this summer can be explained by the same global processes, as the riots of the elements in other places on the planet.

According to research by the Hydrometeorological Center, the reason for the recurrence of very cold and hot periods, dry and rainy periods is that the temperature on the planet rises unevenly.

“In the equatorial territories, warming is less noticeable than at the poles, and as a result, the temperature difference between them decreases. This temperature difference between the equator and the pole is the basis for the circulation in the atmosphere, ”explains Roman Vilfand, director of the Hydrometeorological Center of Russia.

According to forecasters, processes in the atmosphere are slowing down.

“The consequence of global warming is a slowdown in the movement of cyclones around the Earth. Previously, the cyclone flew over the European part through the Moscow region - and into Siberia. Two days passed - and the rain ended, and if it was cold, then after a couple of days it became warmer. Now, due to the fact that the climate has warmed a little, everything in the atmosphere moves slowly. And if a cyclone has risen, it will not budge for a month, ”explains the forecaster and meteorologist Andrei Skvortsov.

Human factor

However, all climatic anomalies and natural Disasters, what in Lately occur on the territory of Russia, in addition to global ones, there are quite local reasons.

Pollution of rivers, silting up of reservoirs, huge garbage dumps - all this contributes to the consequences of the rampant disaster to be more severe. Experts believe that sometimes the precipitation itself is not so terrible as its consequences due to purely economic problems and the human factor.

“For 40-50 years they have not cleaned with dredgers mountain rivers, the Otkaznenskoe reservoir silted up in the Stavropol Territory. If there were no 17 solid dumps in Krymsk filled with karch, roots and other garbage, so many people would not have died in 2012. It is the same now: there was a squall in the capital region, people died - but many were killed by trees that certain organizations had to cut down in advance! Therefore, there is no need to blame everything on nature, ”says Yuri Varakin.

He adds that in a megalopolis, where heating mains and communications pass under the asphalt, trees cannot live for more than 60-70 years, they are destroyed root system and the tree dries up.

The myth of long-term predictions

Forecasters argue that forecasts should always be made with great caution: the longer the forecast period, the less its reliability. Seven to ten days is the maximum period, and at its extreme dates, the probability of an error increases significantly.

“For three days we can give a 95% justified forecast. We can say for sure that today in the evening in Moscow, for example, there will be a thunderstorm, because the radars record not just rain, but with a downpour and thunder. And, for example, on Saturday the probability of precipitation is less. But only shamans or swindlers can predict what will happen on July 10 or 15, ”Yuri Varakin notes.

Despite this, in the Hydrometeorological Center there is a special department of long-term weather forecasts, which compiles data for the season, but its method of work is based on statistical modeling by analogy.

“Let's say we need to develop a forecast for two months: they take the results of observations at a given point six months ago and, according to certain criteria, look for what is called a“ analog year ”. That is, they are looking for a year in which, like ours now, February was very cold, and March and April were above the temperature climatic norm. Then they look at what, for example, August was that year. And on the basis of this, they predict what this August will be like. But this does not take into account what was August or March-April on another continent or in the southern hemisphere. It is possible that these things affect the climate in our country. Therefore, such models are scientific, but they are not enough for us yet, ”says the forecaster on duty at the Phobos weather center, Alexander Sinenkov.

Be that as it may, according to Andrey Skvortsov, in the near future, residents of the Moscow region can still hope for good weather.

“In the next week we will have about the same as now, up to plus 18-22 degrees, then rain, then the sun. The cyclone is standing - it turns cold sideways, then warm. But towards the end next week this structure can collapse - and heat will come to us, ”the expert notes.

It's all about the "lost" air currents

They say that light down jackets this season are the most popular goods in the capital's boutiques ... Muscovites seem to have already come to terms with the cold summer of 2017, or rather, following the well-known advice, they simply changed their attitude towards it. Someone seriously warms himself, and someone, like Vasily Terkin, saves himself with jokes, posting photos of the most relevant woolen swimsuits this season in social networks. Well, the sky, completely raging, gave a new surprise on Friday - either snow or hail. And this is right after the announcement by the mayor of the opening bathing season in Moscow! What happened to nature? Will we ever get warm this year? And how to protect your body from weather extremes? We asked these questions to the forecasters of the Hydrometeorological Center of the Russian Federation, the Phobos weather center and to the doctors.

The Arctic cold decided to once again test the strength of Muscovites. We did not have time to recover from the terrible hurricane that killed 16 people, as on Friday he again brought us from the northern seas strong wind, lead clouds and a good portion of ... snow, but rather a crumb of pre-hail, as meteorologists call it.

Winds break through into the depths of our country, and until Wednesday next week there is no need to expect a special warming, - the leading expert of the Phobos weather center Yevgeny Tishkovets comments on the situation. - All the fault - diving cyclones, which come from the north. Against the background of unconditional global warming, there are malfunctions of zonal (from west to east) air mass transfers. Instead, we are increasingly faced with processes that move perpendicularly - from north to south or from south to north. Therefore, it turns out to be confusion - in the south of Siberia +30, and in Moscow on the night of June 3, 0 ... + 5 degrees was expected and precipitation in the form of wet snow in the north and east of the region.


It seems that it is time for climatologists to explain with us. However, they keep the Olympic calm, only repeating that the generalization is not done after one incident, and therefore they cannot yet say about any permanent changes in nature.

What we are now seeing is happening against the backdrop of global warming, - says Tatyana Berezhnaya, head of the world weather department of the Hydrometeorological Center of the Russian Federation. - Only climatologists have not yet come to a common opinion: whether this is a natural trend, or a consequence of anthropogenic influence. For the most part, they are still inclined to believe that warming is a natural climatic phenomenon that periodically repeats on Earth. Only in different districts this is reflected in its own way: somewhere people languish from the heat, and somewhere, like here, they wear coats in the summer. Here is the latest example of temperature shifters: last weekend it rained and was cold in the eastern Mediterranean, and in the south of Sweden it was warmer than in Greece, +27 (!) Celsius. But it is still impossible to say that now this trend will continue for all subsequent years. Although there is evidence that once the Adriatic was frozen and there was a toboggan route along the Adriatic Sea to Venice.

Historical chronicles also store information about the fact of snowfall in Moscow in 1602 already in July ...

Well, what will happen to the 2017 summer season? The turning point, as it turned out, is only planned for Sunday, when the air currents finally turn 90 degrees and again begin to move from west to east. The cold will give way to warmth, and the thermometer will begin to rise smoothly: if +18 is expected on Monday, then from Wednesday the temperature will finally reach the June norm of +25 degrees, and from next weekend it will be possible to really open the long-awaited swimming season.