Employees of the Laboratory of Hydrometeorology of the Arctic of the Hydrometeorological Center of the Russian Federation, together with foreign colleagues, studied the processes of reducing the area sea ​​ice The Arctic Ocean and predicted their climatic implications. Weather anomalies, in particular the cold and rainy summer of 2017 in the European territory of Russia, are most likely a consequence of the reduction in the ice cover of the Arctic Ocean. The research was supported by a grant from the Russian Science Foundation (RSF). The results of the work were published in the journal Environmental Research Letters.

The processes of melting ice in the Arctic today have accelerated significantly. Over the past decade, the area of ​​sea ice (estimated at the end summer period) decreased by about 40%. Disappearing arctic ice fraught with serious environmental consequences, in particular extinction rare species animals. On the other hand, the liberation of the waters of the Arctic Ocean from under the ice opens up new opportunities in the development of minerals on the Arctic shelves, expands the zone of industrial fishing, and improves conditions for navigation.

The employees of the Hydrometeorological Center of the Russian Federation, together with their colleagues, studied the processes of ice melting in the Atlantic part of the Arctic Ocean and described the consequences of these processes for the entire Arctic region. As a result of the work, a complete picture of hydrometeorological changes in the Arctic was obtained. Warm ocean currents bring warm waters from Atlantic Ocean into the Arctic Basin and the Barents Sea, providing accelerated ice melting. Ice-free waters efficiently absorb solar energy and quickly warm up, releasing excess heat and moisture into the atmosphere. Then, air currents and major storms redistribute heat and moisture throughout most of the Arctic, which leads to changes in the energy balance between the ocean and the atmosphere. In particular, scientists have found that downward long-wave radiation (NDI) increases significantly. It is infrared (thermal) radiation, emitted primarily by water vapor and clouds and directed towards earth surface... An increase in NDI contributes to the warming and melting of Arctic sea ice.

The blue-violet contours show the isolines of sea ice concentration in the winter season from 1979 to 2017 (the lowest concentration is shown in dark blue). The red arrows represent the directions of the Atlantic water distribution. The thin black and red lines show the position of the 20 percent ice stock concentration in March 1979-2004 and 2012, respectively.

Russian scientists drew attention to the significant impact of large storms and the atmospheric circulation regime on the state of the ice cover. For example, storm Frank, which occurred in December 2015, brought abnormally high temperatures to the high latitudes of the Arctic (deviation from the average climatic temperature was 16 ° C), and the NDI flux was significant (compared to the climatic norm). As a result, the decrease in ice thickness in some regions of the Arctic Ocean has reached 10 centimeters.

Scientists obtained data on the area of ​​sea ice from satellites, and the fields of distributions of temperature, pressure, humidity and radiation from the so-called reanalysis product (ERA-Interim). Reanalysis is a computer model that assimilates long-term observational data (radiosonde, aviation, etc.) for different characteristics atmosphere.

“The new knowledge gained as a result of our work makes it possible to more accurately analyze the causes and consequences of the processes occurring in the Arctic Ocean. Lately this situation is observed more and more often and becomes the reason weather anomalies, such as the atypically cold summer of 2017, "said Vladimir Vladimirovich Ivanov, head of the Arctic hydrometeorology laboratory, Doctor of Physics and Mathematics.

Meteorologists need to develop new algorithms that include information about natural processes in the Arctic. This will make weather forecasts more reliable and take into account current climate changes.

Summer in 2017 did not bring any joy to the citizens of Russia. All June observed heavy rains, showers and even hurricanes. The abnormally cold summer of 2017 spoils all plans. Indeed, in such weather it is difficult even to get home, not to go to the beach. Why was June so cold? Will the prolonged rains stop? What to expect from July and August? What the weather will be in next months summer?

Causes of the abnormal summer 2017

Meteorologists believe that the cold summer is due to several reasons. The first reason- abnormal heating of the Earth. The fact is that the mesosphere and other layers of the air envelope are very hot. Because of this, the temperature on Earth is slowly decreasing. Scientists predict the consequences of such weather - not global warming, but global cooling, which could lead to an ice age.

The second reason- the launch of a Chinese satellite called Mo-Tzu. It is the first satellite designed for quantum information transmission on Earth. The mission investigates the mechanism quantum entanglement, and also a test quantum teleportation is carried out. The first experiments were successful, but then something went wrong.

When the satellite starts transmitting information, negative air ions increase in the atmosphere, which contributes to the deterioration of the weather. Hurricanes and showers form on Earth. In addition, monopoles appeared in the stratosphere. V last time they were spotted in 1816, which was nicknamed the year without summer. Then the main reason for the cold summer was the eruption of the Tambora volcano.

No matter how absurd this reason may be, world experts believe that the equipment on the satellite and the quantum operations carried out can really affect weather planets. But they also report that soon everything should be normalized, and the long-awaited summer will come.

Third reason- "North Atlantic block". According to meteorologists, the "North Atlantic block" is an anticyclone. A powerful ridge has formed at the middle level of the troposphere high pressure that does not miss air masses from west to east. Now this block is located in the UK, so only Arctic air is supplied to Russia.

Each of these reasons can affect the planet as a whole in its own way, but so far there is only one result - an abnormally cold summer is observed. We can only hope that July and August 2017 will bring Russian citizens a little more warmth than June.

Forecasts for July and August 2017

According to meteorologists, there will be no abnormal heat in the summer of 2017. But already in July, the thermometer's scale will begin to rise. Long-term coolness will give way to this summer. The air temperature is expected up to +26 - 29 degrees. After the holiday of Ivan Kupala, the temperature will rise by a few more degrees.

According to popular forecast, in July, the Russians are expected to rain again. Indeed, in the middle of the month the rains will return for several days. But the end of the month will please you with the absence abnormal weather... It will be warm, the temperature will rise to 32 degrees.

According to the popular forecast, the weather in August will constantly fluctuate. The first week of the month will start with rather hot weather. This week will be the peak of the abnormal summer 2017 heat in Moscow. Residents of Russia are advised to visit the beaches and sunbathe a little. Meteorologists pay attention to the fact that forest fires are possible at this time.

After a week of heat, several rainy days are to be experienced again. From 25 degrees Celsius, the temperature will drop to 17 degrees. Some more warmth should be expected in the second half of the month. August will end with strong downpours and cold winds.

Summer 2017 will give not only torrential rains but also wonderful summer warmth. Every resident of Russia can enjoy hot weather. Do not get upset ahead of time, even an abnormally cold summer will end one day.

Spring and the long-awaited summer brought little pleasure to Russians. Rest plans were ruined by abnormal weather conditions. Incessant downpours, hurricanes, record low and vice versa high temperatures have confused residents of almost all regions of Russia. What's up with the climate? What will be the summer of 2018 - forecasts of weather forecasters

On May 29, 2017, a severe storm occurred in Moscow and the Moscow region. The wind speed in some places reached 28 m / s. According to statistics, this is the strongest storm since 1904. As a result of the riot of the elements, 18 people died and 170 were injured. How did the events develop?

The weather was determined by a moving cyclone that came from Gulf of Finland... Moscow was in a warm part. The air temperature has reached 25 ° C.

Together with the wind came thunderstorm, downpour and hail. In a short period of time, most of the monthly rate precipitation (31 mm). 6mm hailstones are fixed.

In some areas the wind was blowing at a speed of 20 m / s. Several automatically operating weather stations located in the central part of Moscow recorded a speed of 30 m / s.

In the evening, the elements calmed down.

Consequences of the Moscow hurricane 2017

  1. No electricity at 300 settlements(more than 16,000 buildings, 1,500 summer cottages).
  2. Broken down 27,000 trees. Some of them grew up in protected natural parks.
  3. The roofs of more than 200 multi-storey buildings were damaged.
  4. 2,000 vehicles were damaged.
  5. Strong wind partially or completely destroyed historical monuments: monastery gravestones, the roof of the Senate Palace, the Church of the Nativity of the Virgin.
  6. Fallen trees made it difficult to move along the railroad tracks.

According to the city authorities, a total of 25 million rubles were caused.

No signs of trouble. The element played out in a matter of moments. What was happening was like a large wind tunnel. The wind, constrained by multi-storey buildings, rushed at high speed along long streets, avenues and highways, demolishing everything that came in its way.

Cold weather reasons in 2017

The weather began to deteriorate in early May. The first days were marked by snowfalls, moreover, they were observed throughout Russia.

  1. The Perm Territory was the first to experience the vagaries of nature. On May 7, 100 mm of snow fell in Kungur, Bersheti, Kukushtan, Yanichi. Snowfalls took place in the Sverdlovsk region.
  2. On May 8, we saw snow in Surgut and Khao. The most difficult situation was in Tomsk. In the morning, a warning was received about a possible increase in wind up to 23m / s. Trees were knocked down, wires were cut, a forest fire started. The wind and rain did not stop on May 9. On the 11th, a storm warning was announced.
  3. On May 8, snow fell in Murmansk.
  4. 3 days (May 8-10) rain and snow came to the capital and the region. In some places the snow cover reached 20 cm. During this time, 80% of the monthly precipitation fell.
  5. On May 9, instead of the festive fireworks, the residents of Kaliningrad and the Kaliningrad region were expecting a snowfall.
  6. Residents of the Irkutsk region had to face the capricious weather. In the morning the sun was shining brightly, then the wind appeared, it began to rain. In the evening, the rain became stronger, the snow increased.
  7. On May 10, snowdrifts were recorded in St. Petersburg and the Leningrad region.

Since the beginning of summer, the situation has practically not changed. Warm days replaced by rain, wind and not summer coolness. Temperatures rarely rose above 17 ° C.

In the following months, no hurricanes or snowfalls were observed, but the weather did not please Muscovites with warmth. In July, two cyclones passed, bringing rain and wind. Short-term warming was replaced by another drop in temperature (15-17 ° C). And so on throughout the summer.

According to weather forecasters, you should not be surprised at the capricious weather. Snow similarity was noticed in early June 2016. Cold snap was recorded in 2001/2008. True, the temperature is fixed a couple of degrees higher.

At the same time, the Urals and Siberia suffered from abnormal heat. The thermometer bars sometimes showed 30-31 ° C. This provoked an increase in the level of fire hazard. For example, in the Krasnoyarsk Territory, he reached the maximum fifth grade.

According to scientists, in such weather, the weakest lightning discharge could provoke large-scale fires.

In many areas, the heat was abruptly replaced by thunderstorms, showers, squall winds.

How to explain what happened?

Causes of abnormal weather changes

Meteorologists identify several reasons for the sharp change in climatic conditions.

  1. Strong heating of the planet. It is known that the Earth's air shell has several layers. The mesosphere and a few others got too hot. The result is a decrease in air temperature. According to many meteorologists, here we should not talk about global warming, but about global cooling.
  2. Satellite launch. A Chinese satellite called Mao Tzu flew into space. For what reason did he generate the strongest interest? This is the first device to use new technology quantum data transfer. The first tests were brilliant. Later it was noticed during the satellite operation in earthly atmosphere the level of air ions (gas particles) rises. They affect the weather, leading to rains and hurricanes. Monopoles have also been found in the stratosphere. The last mention of them dates back to 1816, marked by the eruption of the Tambor volcano.
  3. North Atlantic bloc. This is what scientists call the anticyclone. A high pressure ridge appeared in the troposphere, preventing the free movement of air from west to east. Now it is observed over the territory of Great Britain, due to which cold Arctic air enters Russia.

The listed factors affect weather conditions in different ways. But the result of the influence is the same - abnormal heat or cold.

Many Russians are interested in forecasts. What will the future hold? How will winter, spring, summer, autumn 2018 go? Is the weather expected, normal or abnormal?

According to meteorologists, next winter differs little from winter in the classical sense. Sharp drops in temperature and severe frosts are not expected. Only on Epiphany and Christmas will the thermometers go down.

Spring 2018, unlike winter, is full of unpleasant surprises. The weather is expected to be unstable. Anticyclones / cyclones will replace each other unusually quickly, which will lead to an alternation of clear sunny and frosty days.

Forecasters make forecasts for the coming 2018 with caution. This is especially true in summer. According to scientists, the highest temperature will come in August. In June-July, the weather will be reminiscent of spring. Moreover, heavy rains with thunderstorms are expected.

The weather is unpredictable. As can be seen from recent events, it can change almost instantly. There are many reasons and not always they are rooted in natural processes, for example, overheating of the planet or the movement of cyclones / anticyclones. Often what happens is the result of human activity (launching satellites, deforestation.). It is necessary to prepare for any turn of events. It is worth remembering that any time of the year is beautiful in its own way, regardless of snowy winter it, blooming spring, bright autumn, hot summer. According to the famous song, nature does not have bad weather. The main thing is to treat her correctly.

Someone defined the white substance falling from the sky in the Moscow region from the sky on the second day of the calendar summer as hail, someone as snow. Rather, in different areas there was both. "Reedus" tried to find out what this phenomenon is and why this disgrace occurs in the first month of summer.

There is no special disgrace with the weather this year, you just need to remember the weather conditions of the past years, the leading meteorologist of "Gismeteo" Leonid Starkov stands up for nature.

“In 2016, similar weather - with snow pellets - was observed on June 6-7. And the daytime temperature then did not rise above +9. Usually, such an intermediate state of precipitation between snow and hail is typical for periods of sharp cooling during the warm period. But this year, there has not yet been a stable warm period as such - average temperature May was only +10.9 degrees, this is the most cold may over the past 16 years, ”he told Reedus.

Before that, the same cold May was observed in 2001 and 2008, but then the average monthly temperature slightly exceeded 11 degrees.

Judging by the frames of the film "Cold Summer of the 53rd", the weather in Moscow then was not beachy either

If we raise the diaries of observations for even earlier periods, then in 1999 the average temperature in May was generally 8.7 degrees. Therefore, the current " green winter”Neither surprises meteorologists, much less frightens meteorologists.

“In fact, if we are to worry, then this should be done not because summer will differ little from winter, but because of the possibility of repeating the summer of 2010, when Russia was on fire for all summer months... All the seven years that have passed since that drought in the media only scare that now every summer will be like this. But it turned out to be a cold summer - the media are again stirring up panic, ”Starkov frowns.

On June 9, in the capital during the day, the temperature should rise to 25-30 degrees, and we can confidently predict that the media will talk about "global warming".

It appeared back in 1975: it was mentioned by Wallace Broker in an article on climate change trends as a result of man-made factors. These trends are constantly monitored by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. And the Kyoto Protocol, signed at the UN conference in 1997, is designed to minimize greenhouse gas emissions by the participating countries. Therefore, on the one hand, climate change on Earth is under international control.

On the other hand, global climatic processes raise questions among ordinary inhabitants of the planet, and in particular, the Moscow region. Since there is global warming in the world, why is the beginning of summer in the capital region so cold?

However, experts say that the climate is not an area where it is worth drawing superficial conclusions, despite the obvious changes.

The head of the Situation Center of Roshydromet, Yuri Varakin, emphasizes: in order to confirm or deny that certain changes are taking place in the climate, it is necessary to monitor the situation for years, and the climatic "step" is thirty years. According to observations over thirty years, statistical indicators are displayed: averages for a day or for a specific date, an average daily temperature or Maximum temperature that has been observed for thirty years, etc.

Moscow and Moscow region - in the comfort zone

Moscow and the Moscow region are prosperous regions compared to those places where fires, droughts or floods are taking place right now.

“We do not have such natural disasters as in Central and South Asia. Every year thousands of people die from floods, and not because a tree fell on its head, but because as a result of a tropical downpour it blows away houses. Now there is an abnormal heat in Japan: several children have died from heatstroke, hundreds of people with overheating are in hospitals, ”says Yuri Varakin.

However, the cold that began this summer can be explained by the same global processes as the riots of the elements in other parts of the planet.

According to research by the Hydrometeorological Center, the reason for the recurrence of very cold and hot periods, dry and rainy periods is that the temperature on the planet rises unevenly.

“In the equatorial territories, warming is less noticeable than at the poles, and as a result, the temperature difference between them decreases. This temperature difference between the equator and the pole is the basis for the circulation in the atmosphere, ”explains Roman Vilfand, director of the Hydrometeorological Center of Russia.

According to forecasters, processes in the atmosphere are slowing down.

“The consequence of global warming is a slowdown in the movement of cyclones around the Earth. Previously, the cyclone flew over the European part through the Moscow region - and into Siberia. Two days passed - and the rain ended, and if it was cold, then after a couple of days it became warmer. Now, due to the fact that the climate has warmed a little, everything in the atmosphere moves slowly. And if a cyclone has risen, it will not budge for a month, ”explains the forecaster and meteorologist Andrei Skvortsov.

Human factor

However, all climatic anomalies and natural Disasters that have recently been taking place on the territory of Russia, in addition to global ones, there are quite local reasons.

Pollution of rivers, silting up of reservoirs, huge garbage dumps - all this contributes to the consequences of the rampant disaster to be more severe. Experts believe that sometimes the precipitation itself is not so terrible as its consequences due to purely economic problems and the human factor.

“For 40-50 years they have not cleaned with dredgers mountain rivers, the Otkaznenskoe reservoir silted up in the Stavropol Territory. If there were no 17 solid dumps in Krymsk filled with karch, roots and other garbage, so many people would not have died in 2012. It is the same now: there was a squall in the capital region, people died - but many were killed by trees that certain organizations had to cut down in advance! Therefore, there is no need to blame everything on nature, ”says Yuri Varakin.

He adds that in a megalopolis, where heating mains and communications pass under the asphalt, trees cannot live for more than 60-70 years, they are destroyed root system and the tree dries up.

Myth long-term forecasts

Forecasters argue that forecasts should always be made with great caution: the longer the forecast period, the less its reliability. Seven to ten days is the maximum period, and at its extreme dates, the probability of an error increases significantly.

“For three days we can give a 95% justified forecast. We can say for sure that today in the evening in Moscow, for example, there will be a thunderstorm, because the radars record not just rain, but with a downpour and thunder. And, for example, on Saturday the probability of precipitation is less. But only shamans or swindlers can predict what will happen on July 10 or 15, ”Yuri Varakin notes.

Despite this, in the Hydrometeorological Center there is a special department of long-term weather forecasts, which compiles data for the season, but its method of work is based on statistical modeling by analogy.

“Let's say we need to develop a forecast for two months: they take the results of observations at a given point six months ago and, according to certain criteria, look for what is called a“ analog year ”. That is, they are looking for a year in which, like ours now, February was very cold, and March and April were above the temperature climatic norm. Then they look at what, for example, August was that year. And on the basis of this, they predict what this August will be like. But this does not take into account what was August or March-April on another continent or in the southern hemisphere. It is possible that these things affect the climate in our country. Therefore, such models are scientific, but they are not enough for us yet, ”says the forecaster on duty at the Phobos weather center, Alexander Sinenkov.

Be that as it may, according to Andrey Skvortsov, in the near future, residents of the Moscow region can still hope for good weather.

“In the next week we will have about the same as now, up to plus 18-22 degrees, then rain, then the sun. The cyclone is standing - it turns cold sideways, then warm. But towards the end next week this structure can collapse - and heat will come to us, ”the expert notes.