Belarus has threatened the West with a possible withdrawal from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). According to official Minsk, the United States and Great Britain, by applying economic sanctions against Belarus, violated their obligations towards the country. That is why Minsk may cease to comply with these conditions. This, at least, was stated by the Belarusian delegation in Geneva at the second session of the Preparatory Committee for the NPT Review Conference.

The Belarusian side emphasized that it is very important for it that the tripartite security guarantees provided in accordance with the 1994 Budapest Memorandum in connection with Belarus' voluntary renunciation of the right to possess nuclear weapons work. "Three states - Great Britain, Russia and the USA - have undertaken to respect the independence and sovereignty of Belarus, including not to use measures of economic coercion," the Belarusian delegates emphasized. And if there are sanctions, then Western partners encroach on the independence of Belarus.

“A reasonable question arises why, despite the fixed and repeatedly confirmed commitments, some nuclear powers in practice ignore them, continuing to apply economic and political pressure. registered with the UN in November 2012 as international treaty. Violation of accepted legal obligations is an unacceptable norm of behavior of states from the point of view of international law", the Belarusian side stressed.

The irritation of the official Minsk is understandable. US and EU apply to Belarus whole complex political and economic sanctions. The EU black list currently includes 243 individuals and 32 companies supporting the "Lukashenko regime". The number of those on the "black list" of the United States is unknown, but it is possible that it is even higher. It's about about budget-forming companies - such as Belspetsexport, Belneftekhim, Belaruskali. They sell their products mainly in foreign countries. This means that sanctions are a direct blow to the country's budget.

Along the way, Belarus reached a new - almost Soviet - level of military integration with Russia. In May, the allies will hold large-scale exercises "West-2013", where they will work out a possible nuclear strike on Warsaw. The exercises will take place in close proximity to the Polish borders. In addition, Russia announced for the first time that it plans to permanently deploy its air regiment with fighter jets in Belarus by 2015. According to Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, the start of work on this project is scheduled for this year: Moscow will place an aviation commandant's office with its neighbors and put the first duty unit of combat fighters on duty. "We intend to continue to consider issues necessary to strengthen the defense capability of our Belarusian colleagues and brothers," Shoigu stressed.

Director of the Minsk Center for European Integration Yuri Shevtsov believes that for the Belarusian foreign policy a momentous event took place. “To relocate an entire air regiment to Belarus in less than two years is very fast. And this reflects a high degree military alarm regarding NATO or individual NATO countries. Polish games of greatness have always ended badly for Poland," the expert explains. And he adds: "It is unlikely that opposition to Polish activity regarding Belarus will be limited to one Russian air regiment. At a minimum, the saturation of the Belarusian army with new weapons and equipment will go faster now. And if it comes to the deployment of Russian nuclear weapons in Belarus in the event of the collapse of the Budapest Memorandum system, then the militarization of the region will increase by orders of magnitude."

Of course, such activity on the part of the official Minsk will inevitably affect the eastern borders of the EU. Poland and Lithuania will begin to rapidly increase military spending. And if for Poland they are unlikely to become too strong an economic burden, then for Lithuania, geopolitical changes will definitely mean additional problems in matters of withdrawing the country from economic crisis. Shevtsov also believes that Russia will increase pressure on Lithuania - both economic and informational. "The EU does not compensate Lithuania for these losses. There will still be no war between Russia and NATO, but, here, the losses from the current Polish activity in the east for Lithuania can be quite serious," the political scientist sums up.

Experts consider it quite likely that the threats of the Belarusians will not be empty air shaking, and that the country will respond to the sanctions by withdrawing from the Budapest Memorandum. "The United States has actually already withdrawn from it. Recently, it seems, there was a statement by the US embassy in Belarus that the United States does not consider this Memorandum as a binding document for them," Shevtsov comments.

All this means that Belarus, Ukraine and Kazakhstan are about to get a legal basis to return to their nuclear status. And in the end, someone, and Belarus, will definitely be able to count on the deployment of Russian nuclear weapons on its territory. Moreover, the Belarusian government already possesses approximately 2.5 tons nuclear materials, some of which have a high degree of enrichment, sufficient, for example, for the rapid manufacture of a "dirty" atomic "bomb".

In addition, "a number of threshold countries will receive an additional impetus to the creation of nuclear weapons, as they will see the unreliability of security guarantees from the United States. Most likely, Iran will officially try to become the first of these countries," Shevtsov describes the more distant consequences of these changes.

All this, no doubt, plays into the hands of Lukashenka. Stanislav Shushkevich, the author of the Belarusian nuclear disarmament program, says that "Lukashenko will soon begin to blackmail the United States more actively with a return to nuclear status." He will do this in order to achieve the removal of economic sanctions from Belarus. And Old Man can return to him every time he doesn’t like something in the behavior of NATO member countries. Whether Lukashenka will receive nuclear weapons, which he has been dreaming of for a long time, will depend only on Russia in the next few years.

The United States, obviously, will have to somehow respond to this. An attempt to pacify the intractable Lukashenka may turn into new conflicts for NATO member countries. What is especially unsafe against the backdrop of growing military power China and angry rhetoric against the West from Russia.

In the symbolic club of nuclear powers, modern Belarus has existed for almost five years: from the collapse Soviet Union in December 1991 until November 27, 1996, when the last echelon with missiles filled with nuclear charges left the territory of the republic

Since then, a number of politicians have repeatedly heard words about allegedly lost power for nothing, because a nuclear club is a convincing argument for countering the intrigues of external potential enemies that encroach on the sovereignty of the state. Then suddenly Ambassador Alexander Surikov will speak out about the possible deployment of Russian nuclear weapons in Belarus "with certain level mutual trust and integration". Then Alexander Lukashenko will call the withdrawal of nuclear weapons from Belarus a "cruel mistake", while accusing "our nationalists and Shushkevich" of squandering "the greatest wealth and expensive goods."

Occasionally, some anonymous sources from the Belarusian and Russian military departments declare their readiness to return nuclear missiles to Sineokuyu, on the condition that "the decision of the leadership" is made. It is noteworthy that the Allied military experts note: “The Belarusians have the entire military infrastructure of the Warsaw Pact era in perfect condition, up to launchers missiles with nuclear warheads that were taken to Russia after the collapse of the USSR.

As for the sites for launchers, Naviny.by has already analyzed their condition - in the publication "There is no place for nuclear weapons in Belarus?". It is clear that it is unsafe, to put it mildly, to approach such facilities - still operating or mothballed - to put it mildly. However, some idea of state of the art, for example, bases capable of storing nuclear weapons can also be obtained from open sources. It should be especially emphasized that in the hypothetical return of the "greatest asset" to Belarus, it is precisely such bases that are of paramount strategic importance. Everything begins with them.

Our part of nuclear history

Data about total nuclear charges in the USSR have never been published in the open press. According to various estimates, in the Soviet Union there were from 20 to 45 thousand units. Some researchers point out that as of 1989, there were about 1,180 strategic and tactical nuclear warheads on the territory of the BSSR. Bases for their storage began to be built in the early 1950s. And they built, it must be said, for centuries: they did not spare high-quality cement, the storage facilities were buried in the ground to a depth of 10 meters.

Among the very first and largest military depots - nuclear bases designed for storage and preparation for use atomic bombs, a base was built at the long-range aviation airfield, located in Machulishchi, which is two dozen kilometers from Minsk. In the language of the military, it was called military unit No. 75367 and had the code name "repair and technical base."

Another base missile weapons strategic purpose (RVSN) was located near Gomel. Almost nothing is known about her, only the number - military unit 42654 - and the code name "Belar Arsenal".

The most famous object of this series was and remains the artillery arsenal, which began to be built in 1952 near the Kolosovo station in the Stolbtsy district of the Minsk region. Before the collapse of the USSR, the storage served military unit 25819, and it itself was called the "25th Arsenal of the Strategic Missile Forces." Officially, the unit was disbanded and withdrawn to Russia in 1996. However, later the unit was reanimated, and now it is listed as the 25th arsenal of rocket and artillery weapons in the Armed Forces of Belarus. It was here that the dismantling took place in the 90s nuclear warheads under the close supervision of NATO inspectors.

Noisy "Kamysh" and the commander disappeared

After the last nuclear warhead was removed from the arsenal to Russia, confusion and vacillation began in the unit. It was easy to get to the once-secret object, bypassing the checkpoint, simply by stepping over a fallen fence. By the way, the arsenal was essentially three objects: on the same territory in the forest there was a military camp and the actual administrative part of the unit with technical facilities. The ammunition storage base called "Kamysh" was located a few kilometers from the headquarters - also in the forest. In 1996, there was practically no security there anymore.

Pillars with shields with the inscription "No passage. Shooting without warning" were turned out. The premises of the checkpoint were plundered, the remains of the alarm were lying on the ground. The only thing that remained untouched was the territory itself, where there were warehouses with conventional ammunition underground. True, there were no people who wanted to go there. The seven-kilometer perimeter territory was fenced with two rows of barbed wire, which was under high voltage. Next to the locked gate stood a five-meter metal tower with loopholes. The sight is terrible...

The command of the arsenal and the remaining in the ranks and useless officers were more concerned with the problem of their own survival than with the service. The local authorities threatened to de-energize and deprive the military of heat for non-payment of accumulated debts. The situation was terrible, and each of the servicemen was spinning as best they could.

The commander of the arsenal, a colonel, solved the problem of his own survival simply. One day he just disappeared. As it turned out, he deserted, but not empty-handed. Along with him, a suitcase with very expensive "trophies" disappeared: the colonel stole 600 magnets with a high content of platinum for a total amount of about 100 thousand dollars. During the dismantling of missiles, non-ferrous and precious metals were collected in the unit.

The 25th arsenal How and at what cost the 25th arsenal was restored and, as they say, put into operation, we will not guess.

According to Naviny.by, ten years ago this military facility was equipped with the latest integrated security system, which consists of several subsystems. The technical territory of the arsenal is a wire fence with a voltage between the lines of 3,000 volts. Even if you overcome this milestone, then inside you can run into electric shock traps with a voltage of under 6 thousand volts with three levels of operation: signal, warning and striking. A special video surveillance system also helps to protect the territory at any time of the day. Plus, the human factor in uniform and with a gun.

By all indications, the 25th arsenal is capable of protecting and maintaining not only weapons of the usual, let's say, explosive type. As the military say: "We carry out orders, but do not discuss!".

They recently received another such order. After their commander-in-chief on February 13 approved the Agreement between Belarus and Russia on the joint protection of the external border of the Union State in the airspace and the creation of a Unified Regional System air defense. What is not a reason to gossip about the once lost nuclear power and possible ways to acquire it?

The talks held in Minsk by Deputy Foreign Minister of the Russian Federation Grigory Karasin were regarded by experts as a hint at the return of nuclear weapons to our country.

For the visit of a high-ranking Russian diplomat tut.by drew attention to Belarus. The portal noted that Grigory Karasin was expected in Minsk not only in the Foreign Ministry, but also in the presidential administration. The Russian Deputy Minister was received by its head Vladimir Makei. At this meeting, according to the head of the foreign policy department of the presidential administration, Maxim Ryzhenkov, a wide range of "specific sensitive issues" was discussed, Solidarnasts writes.

“With a high degree of probability, it can be assumed that one of the “specific sensitive issues” concerned cooperation in the military sphere,” writes the portal. - It is worth remembering that all last year between Russia and the United States were difficult negotiations on the terms of placement American system PRO in Europe. These negotiations never came to fruition."

In this regard, it is mentioned that in November 2011, a military-diplomatic source in Moscow told Interfax that the Russian Federation, as a countermeasure, could deploy Iskander missile systems on the territory of Belarus: US missile defense elements near our borders.”

“It is quite possible that in the current situation, the matter may go beyond the anonymous statements of military-diplomatic sources,” the portal concluded.

"The introduction of missiles is contrary to the highest law of the state"

Former judge of the Constitutional Court of Belarus Mikhail Pastukhov considers the possible deployment of nuclear weapons on the territory of our country illegal:

– Article 18 of the Constitution declares Belarus a nuclear-free zone and a neutral state. Therefore, the introduction of missiles, both offensive and defensive, is contrary to the highest law of the state.

A military observer for the newspaper Belorussy i Rynok, Alexander Alesin, has a different opinion. He believes the option of deploying nuclear weapons on the territory of Belarus is quite possible.

- It will be about the bases of Russia and Russian weapons, - says the expert. - It will be under the jurisdiction of Russia, and appropriately formalized in terms of international treaties.

Alexander Alesin recalls that the practice of deploying such bases is widespread in the North Atlantic Alliance:

– NATO countries have storage facilities american bombs, which were also recently used to store tactical nuclear warheads.

However, this scenario is fraught with extremely unpleasant consequences for our country.

– Belarus will automatically turn into a target and become the primary goal of the preventive nuclear strike, Alesin explained.

The expert considers the deployment of Russian Iskander-M complexes in Belarus more realistic:

- Judging by the fact that Russia and the United States cannot agree on missile defense, if events pass the “point of no return”, then Russian weapons for the territory of the Russian Federation is quite possible.

"No one will cross the red line"

In turn, senior analyst of the Belarusian Institute for Strategic Studies Denis Melyantsov considers it impossible to deploy nuclear weapons in our country.

- This is prohibited by international law, as well as the option of deploying Russian anti-missiles, - the expert noted. - Belarus declared itself a neutral state and committed itself not to deploy anti-missiles and other weapons that would significantly change the balance of power in the region.

According to the analyst, through the mouth of Grigory Karasin, Russia is not coordinating the prospects for placement, but the "atomic rhetoric" that is effective in international contractual processes.

“I'm not sure that Russia will eventually decide to deploy missiles, because the negotiation process on missile defense is still underway,” emphasizes Denis Melyantsov. - The Obama administration is ready to make concessions. If we recall how the issue of participation in the missile defense system of Belarus was discussed at the Munich Security Conference, not an escalation is possible, but only rhetoric, which is very effective.

The expert believes that Russia is working out all the options when you need to "flex your muscles."

“Most likely, the talks of the distinguished Russian guest with Vladimir Makei concerned precisely the coordination of rhetoric on the issue of deployment of weapons,” the Salidarnasts interlocutor notes. - The official Minsk, in turn, competently plays along. We are monitoring the situation in relations with Russia and we can state that for the last six months there have been practically no negative statements from official Minsk regarding Moscow.

- There is no need for nuclear weapons and anti-missiles. This will aggravate relations between the West and Russia, and certainly with Belarus. The survival imperative of the Belarusian authorities is the possibility of balance. No one will cross the red line ...

Belarus may deploy nuclear forces.

During the visit of the head of the Ministry of Defense Russian Federation to Belarus, Sergei Shoigu and Andrei Ravkov touched upon the topic of strategic military partnership between the two countries. It was mainly about the implementation of the Plan of joint measures to ensure the military security of the Union State.

The main question concerned the deployment of the US military in Poland, in connection with which, Belarus and Russia should take appropriate measures to ensure security.

“The plans of the Polish government to permanently deploy a division of the US Armed Forces on its territory are counterproductive and do not contribute to maintaining stability and strengthening regional security. Under these conditions, we are forced to take retaliatory measures and must be ready to neutralize possible military threats in all directions.” - said Sergei Shoigu.

Nevertheless, according to experts, the tension at the Belarusian border, as well as at the border of the Union State, will continue to grow, in connection with which, nuclear weapons can be deployed on the territory of Belarus, however, such a measure is extreme, and it will be implemented only if subject to strong military pressure from the West.

“The answer could be the transfer to Belarus of one or more brigades of operational-tactical missile systems"Iskander", which is armed with the ground forces of the Russian Federation in the Western Military District, and maybe in the Central Military District. At a speed of 70 kilometers per hour with a power reserve of a thousand kilometers, in 12-15 hours, the Iskander complexes from the territory of the Western Military District can arrive on the territory of Belarus on their own and within a few tens of minutes can be prepared for firing.<…>If this is not a temporary raid, but permanent accommodation, then you will need hangars to accommodate military equipment, repair zones are needed, and most importantly, barracks to accommodate personnel. The rest of the infrastructure is present in Belarus, which provides ample room for maneuver.” - said military expert Alexander Alesin.

Nevertheless, the likelihood that Belarus will take such measures remains almost unrealistic, which is due to the intentions of this state to partner not only with Russia, but also with the West.

“Belarus is a peace-loving state, striving to keep aloof, exclusively within its own interests. The authorities of this country are well aware that if nuclear weapons appear on the territory of Belarus, and the Iskanders have the ability to use nuclear warheads, then Western weapons will be aimed not only at Russia, but also at Belarus. , - the site analyst emphasizes.

The collapse of the Soviet Union suddenly turned Belarus into a nuclear power. But the warheads located on the territory our country, fact officially controlled by Moscow. The last rocket left Belarus on November 26, 1996. This event was preceded by long and difficult negotiations with Russia and the West.

Nuclear button stays in Russia

Belarus in Soviet times was an outpost Soviet army aimed at the West - there were a lot of weapons in the country. Even ex-Prime Minister Vyacheslav Kebich, who can hardly be suspected of criticizing the Soviet order, stated in his memoirs: in terms of the number of tanks per capita, the BSSR was the most militarized in the world. There was also enough nuclear weapons in Belarus, which appeared in the country in the 1960s. As of 1989, there were about 1180 strategic and tactical nuclear warheads on the territory of the BSSR. Four missile divisions were responsible for their maintenance, which were based near Pruzhany, Mozyr, Postavy and Lida. The territories near the bases resembled a desert that stretched for tens of kilometers. But the nuclear weapons control system was located in Moscow, which means that the Belarusians became hostages of the all-union leadership.

After Chernobyl, society was seriously opposed to the atom, which no longer seemed peaceful to anyone. Therefore, in adopted on July 27, 1990, it was stated: "The Belarusian SSR aims to make its territory a nuclear-free zone, and the republic a neutral state." This desire met with sympathy from abroad: things were moving towards the collapse of the USSR, and America was interested in keeping the composition of the "nuclear club" unchanged. According to Petr Kravchenko(in 1990-1994 - Minister of Foreign Affairs of the BSSR, and then of the Republic of Belarus), already in September 1991, meeting with US Secretary of State James Baker, he talked about the non-nuclear status of the republic.

The implementation of these plans became possible only after Belovezhskaya Pushcha. The leaders of the republics understood the risks of losing control over the "nuclear button", therefore, in the agreement on the creation of the CIS on December 8, 1991, it was guaranteed that the members of the Commonwealth "ensure unified control over nuclear weapons and their non-proliferation."

Subsequent agreements, adopted at the turn of 1991-1992, determined the temporary status of nuclear weapons, which by the time of the collapse of the USSR were located on the territory of four republics: Belarus, Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan. To control nuclear weapons, a joint command of strategic forces was created, which was to be headed by Marshal Yevgeny Shaposhnikov, who had previously been the Minister of Defense of the USSR. Ukraine and Belarus were to abandon the warheads stationed on their territories and join the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. Until that time, the decision on its application was to be made by the President of Russia "in agreement with the leaders of Ukraine, Belarus and Kazakhstan in consultation with the heads of other member states of the Commonwealth." Tactical nuclear weapons were to be taken to Russia and dismantled there under joint control. All four countries were supposed to jointly develop a policy in the field of nuclear weapons.

The situation was ambiguous. At first glance, the parties declared universal control over weapons. On the other hand, Russia continued to play first fiddle: in 1993, the Chicago Tribune argued: “In practice, this means that only Yeltsin knows the code to control their [missiles] launch, but it is assumed that he will not order the launch without the consent of Ukraine , Kazakhstan and Belarus". Of course, this situation was not very encouraging.

Belarus and Ukraine: different strategies

The question remained how much compensation countries would receive for giving up nuclear weapons. Position Stanislav Shushkevich was simple: get rid of the missiles as soon as possible. As the ex-speaker later said, “Belarus was actually a hostage of Russia. There were so many nuclear weapons on its surface that it was possible to destroy the whole of Europe. I considered this a very dangerous business, and as soon as we signed Belovezhskaya agreements, I said: we will withdraw nuclear weapons without preconditions, compensation, and we will do it immediately, because it threatens the death of the Belarusian nation, Belarus.”

But other politicians argued that serious compensation could be obtained for the rejection of missiles. "Most big mistake in the early 90s, I consider the withdrawal of nuclear weapons from Belarus according to the model that the West imposed on Shushkevich, and Shushkevich on the Supreme Council, - wrote one of the leaders of the Belarusian Popular Front, a deputy of the Supreme Council Sergey Naumchik. - Yes, weapons had to be withdrawn (and the line about non-nuclear weapons in the Declaration of Sovereignty is mine), but - on favorable terms for Belarus (among which, it is possible, visa-free or facilitated entry). But at the end of December 1991 in Alma-Ata, Shushkevich, without consulting with the members of the Belarusian delegation, unconditionally agreed to recognize Russia as the legal successor of the USSR in the UN and the owner of nuclear weapons.

From the memoirs of Petr Kravchenko “Belarus at the crossroads. Notes of a politician and a diplomat”:“We experienced a real shock. It turned out that Shushkevich simply betrayed us! Passed national interests Belarus, which in one fell swoop lost its main trump card in negotiations with Russia,<…>. Of course, he had no right to make such decisions without consulting with the entire composition of the delegation.<…>The second person who fully realized all the drama of what was happening was my old opponent Zenon Pozniak. He gloomily watched our skirmish and, with a rueful sigh, dropped the following phrase: “Shushkevich does not care about public interests Motherland!”<…>As part of the Belarusian-Russian agreements, 87 SS-25 missiles were removed from the territory of Belarus. They were dismantled at the Arzamas-3 enterprise. From them turned out<…>uranium, which Russia later sold to the United States. As a result of this deal, Russia received more than ten billion dollars. This is official data, although the Russian opposition press claimed that the price of the deal was several times higher.”

At the same time, Ukraine took a completely different position. In March 1992, the President of this country Leonid Kravchuk stopped the export of tactical nuclear weapons to Russia. As the leader of Ukraine stated, “due to the current political instability and confusion, we cannot be sure that the missiles we take out are destroyed and do not fall into unkind hands.<…>Ukraine considers the capacity of the plant for the destruction of nuclear arsenals, located in Russia, insufficient. Therefore, it has the right to have a similar enterprise in its territory.<…>It can also take over the recycling of waste from nuclear power plants republics".

Ukraine also proposed that nuclear weapons be removed from its territory and destroyed under international control. According to researcher Denis Rafeenko, such a policy was explained by Ukrainian-Russian contradictions over Crimea and Black Sea Fleet. "Under these conditions, the nuclear card was used by the leadership of Ukraine as a response to certain actions of the Russian side."

Whose compensation will be greater?

The Ukrainian position has caused certain problems. On July 30-31, 1991, the Treaty on the Reduction of Strategic Offensive Arms (START-1) was signed in Moscow. According to the document, the USSR and the USA were to reduce their nuclear arsenals. At the same time, each side was supposed to have no more than 6,000 weapons. As noted Denis Rafeenko, “The US view of the events taking place in Ukraine at that time was that if Ukraine failed to ratify the START-1 Treaty, then this treaty would lose its force. congress people's deputies The Russian Federation has decided to ratify the START-1 Treaty, but not to exchange instruments of ratification until Ukraine accedes to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. A compromise had to be found.

As the economies of Ukraine and Belarus struggled, both countries looked to the West and Russia for support. But Ukraine, which has not completely abandoned weapons, used them as an argument, while Belarus acted as a petitioner.

As Piotr Kravchenko recalls, in January 1992 Belarus announced that it would not only fulfill all its obligations, but would also speed up the withdrawal of tactical nuclear weapons from the country. This became a trump card in negotiations with the Americans, who in the spring of the same year extended the Nunn-Lugar program to our country. It provided for the allocation of $ 250 million for purposes related to ensuring nuclear safety during the dismantling, redeployment and destruction of nuclear warheads. Belarus received over $100 million. It should be noted that later, in 1993, during the visit of the Belarusian delegation headed by Stanislav Shushkevich to the USA, Belarus received another 59 million.

In parallel, there were negotiations between Western countries and former union, and now independent republics. On May 23, 1992, the Lisbon Protocol to the START-1 Treaty was signed.