What is a decision, how to make decisions correctly, how they are made at the cellular level, what is the decision-making process, what are the decision-making methods and what are the consequences of right and wrong decisions ...

Each person has many goals: operational, tactical, strategic. Their achievement allows you to satisfy your needs and receive the necessary resources for personal development and self-realization. And each goal has a huge number of ways to achieve, ways to achieve it.

This can be represented as a map with many cities and roads connecting them into a single network. On this map you can see countless intersections and turns. They are the moments when a person needs decide: move forward, turn, or even turn around. These moments are very important: if you make the wrong decision, turn the wrong way, make a mistake, you can lose a lot, spend time looking for the right road, get lost or even die.

To minimize such mistakes, a person needs to learn how to make decisions correctly and in a timely manner. This will help you successfully achieve any goals, spend personal resources at a minimum and improve not only your life, but also help many others. Proper decision-making makes a person more confident, strong and calm, which in general makes him even happier.

In this method, you will find a detailed description of what a decision is, how it is made at the cellular level, and what practical methods you can use to make the right decisions.

So, first, let's figure out what a solution is.

Every moment you have a huge number of options for actions that you can perform. They're called alternatives. And every moment you make a choice from these alternatives in favor of one of the options (go to the right, lie down, have lunch, call ...). Depending on the choice you make, you begin to act and spend personal resources to achieve a specific goal, which should give you a certain, useful result. These options are the solutions.

This is a reasonably chosen course of action from a variety of alternatives that provides the desired result.

But among all possible alternatives, some options help to get closer to the goal, improve the condition and get new resources - useful actions (correct), while others, on the contrary, will lead to deterioration and loss of personal resources - harmful actions (wrong). To choose the right options, you need to make a decision.

Decision-making is the process of determining the best solution that ensures maximum efficiency and success in obtaining a result.

The essence of the decision-making process is distribution of personal resources between multiple goals, depending on their importance and usefulness. When a person makes a decision, he chooses the most important this moment goal, begins to perform actions and spend resources to achieve it.

They allow to achieve the goal with the minimum expenditure of resources (along the shortest path), taking into account all possible restrictions. And by making optimal decisions every time, a person is able to achieve ideal efficiency, which will make him even more successful (if he achieves the right goals that help him fulfill himself).

play an important role in decision making arguments- facts proving the usefulness of a certain action to achieve the goal. For each alternative, several arguments can be put forward. The choice is made in favor of the option for which it turned out to find the most significant, weighty arguments. Therefore, it is very important to look for as many arguments as possible to make the right decision.

Decisions largely depend on the level certainty the situation in which it is accepted. The less a person knows about the situation, its causes and consequences, the more difficult it becomes to make a decision. If the situation is familiar, the person knows what will happen if he makes this or that decision, then the choice is made easily. In fact, there is no choice then - the correct decision is immediately known, which immediately begins to be implemented.

The level of certainty also affects the person's confidence in the correctness of the chosen option. The more a person knows about the consequences of his decision, the more he is sure that he is right and the stronger will be the intention to implement the chosen actions. Therefore, to become more confident person, you need to increase the level of certainty in problem situations, get more information about them. Then it will be much easier to make decisions and goals will be achieved more efficiently and successfully.

Solutions can be like conscious, and unconscious, they are also called arbitrary and involuntary, respectively. Moreover, we take orders of magnitude more unconscious decisions than conscious ones. These include the physiological processes in our body, for which the nervous system is responsible. She performs most of her work automatically, without the participation of our consciousness, but which can control her at the right time (we can hold our breath when necessary).

nervous system based on reflex principle, she makes decisions to automatically respond to internal and external changes. Take a breath / exhale, contract / relax muscles, secrete gastric juice, sneeze, turn your head to a loud sound, etc. - all this is the result of unconscious decision-making, implemented by reflexes. This helps to free the mind to make other, usually more important decisions that help achieve meaningful goals.

For conscious decision-making, the main tool is the will.

Will is the ability to consciously make choices and take actions to achieve goals

The will allows a person to consciously regulate his behavior and activities, to overcome internal and external obstacles when committing focused actions. In general, it regulates activity in problematic conditions: it increases it when it is necessary to perform useful actions, or decreases it if it is necessary to prevent useless activity.

Most often, the will is used in early achievement of the goal when it is required to do right choice and perform the first, usually the most difficult step. It also applies when obstacles(problems, needs, impacts) when you need to make an effort to overcome them.

Thus, the main components of the decision-making process are alternatives, certainty, arguments, will, choice, result.

Physiology of decision making

As mentioned earlier, the main tool for making decisions is the will. Its physiological basis is betz giant pyramidal cells located in the frontal lobes of the cerebral cortex. They are connected through nerve pathways with all the effectors of the human body (muscles of the arms, legs, tongue, larynx, etc.) and form a single, interconnected motor apparatus of the body. It is he who allows us to respond to external influences of the environment and to influence it ourselves, showing our will.

Betz cells respond to emotional processes, signaling the significance of current impacts. If they are able to improve or worsen the state of the body, then the will decides to perform response actions to adapt to current conditions in order to at least maintain the integrity of the body (homeostasis).

Also, Betz cells are closely associated with memory person. From a physiological point of view, memory is a specific structure of the nervous system, which includes several components: connections between neurons, the level of myelination of these connections (affects the speed of impulse transmission), ring structures of neurons, the structure of the RNA protein in the nucleus of neurons (responsible for recognition of input signals and formation of output pulses), etc.

Due to external influences that create electrical impulses in the nervous system, change in the specified components (for example, new links appear). This leads to the fact that the nervous system already reacts differently to subsequent similar effects. And when making decisions, it is these changes that affect which Betz cells (options) will receive an impulse. In essence, memory is a repository of arguments, initial information that is used in making decisions.

Therefore, it is Betz cells that are physiological instrument decision making . When exposed to them, these cells first accumulate an electric charge on themselves, which is the integrating property of neurons. As soon as this charge reaches a certain level (readiness for a decision), the cells transmit an impulse to the nervous system, which implements the selected action.

Each initial impact on the Betz cell, the initial electrical, detonation impulse is argument, which is put forward in favor of a certain option. We can say that each individual cell, or rather a complex of cells, is responsible for choosing a specific course of action - alternatives. And on which cell the electric charge accumulates faster, that option will be implemented. Charge accumulation occurs due to the combination (convergence) of signals from different sensory systems and other neurons that store the memory of previous exposures, decisions made and their consequences.

This process can be compared to bowls that are filled with water. Let's say you are driving home from work, drove up to an intersection and you need to make a decision: turn right or left. Then 2 "cups" (2 combinations of Betz cells) appear in the nervous system. You start thinking: "If I turn right, then I'll get home faster." At this moment, it was as if you poured some water into the first "bowl" (gave an electrical impulse to the first merging of cells - formulated an argument). Then they thought: "If I turn left, I can go to the store and buy groceries" - they poured water into the second bowl. "And if I come home faster, I'll rest more" - the first bowl was replenished again. "And if I get to the store, I'll buy something tasty" - the second bowl was replenished again. And such "pouring" will occur until one of the "bowls" overflows. This will be the decision point.

After the decision of the Betz cell send an electrical impulse (or rather, their sequence, called a beam) to the projection zones of the cerebral cortex. They contain nerve centers that control effectors (for example, the muscles of the arms, legs, face ...). And it is they who implement the decision made, perform specific actions to achieve the goal. Such signals are called by force of will.

Betz cells are able to evaluate probability the success of the implementation of the solution in these conditions. Those. if one solution different conditions led to both success and failure, then a person in a similar situation will be able to assess which of the decisions is most likely to lead to success. This allows you to make the right decisions in new, unknown conditions and get results when the path to achieve the goal is not exactly known.

According to the theory of functional systems P.K. Anokhin, the decision-making process is transitional from afferent synthesis to a program of action. Those. the decision depends on what exactly the reaction (program of actions) will be to the current influence (determined by afferent synthesis), and whether this reaction will take place at all.

Level certainty situation affects the speed of transition to the action program - the higher it is, the faster the decision will be made and the faster it will be implemented. A high level occurs when a person has already encountered a similar situation and has already formed neural structures responsible for choosing and implementing the right decision. If the certainty is low, then the organism will spend time forming new neural connections, combining neurons, searching for arguments, etc., in order to find the best option actions. This means more time to make a decision.

Thus, from a physiological point of view, the decision-making process consists in the transmission of impulses to the Betz nerve cells in the frontal lobes, the accumulation of an electric charge by these cells and the transfer of volitional effort to the effectors to implement the decision. When making a decision, the body is freed from a large number of degrees of freedom, chooses one of them and implements it.

Memory, thinking and emotions in decision making

To make the right decision, it is important to use features such as memory, thinking and emotions.

Memory provides background information that will be used as arguments when making a decision. The most important criteria of this information are its objectivity (truth) and completeness. If false information is used to make a decision (we drove into the store, considering it to be still open, but in reality it is already closed), then the decision will be erroneous (waste time). Similarly, about completeness: if there is not enough information, then the decision can also be erroneous or far from the best (to buy something tasty, you could go to a store that is on the way home, but which you did not know about).

Therefore, before making a decision, it is important to make sure that the information you have is correct and try to get as much additional information as possible that relates to the goal.

Thinking allows you to process existing information, analyze it (break it into parts), synthesize new information (combine it with other information), filter out unnecessary information, draw conclusions, etc. This allows you to get even more arguments. The more of them, the closer the solution will be to the optimal one.

Thinking is also used to set goals, its planning, determination of the necessary resources for its successful achievement. And when the achievement of the goal begins, thinking allows you to compare the current state with the planned one. This helps to identify deviations from the plan in a timely manner, make the necessary adjustments to it and to activities, which prevents unnecessary waste of resources and minimizes errors.

Thinking is what makes decisions. consciously, based on objective facts and personal experience. Without thinking, a person would carry out only unconscious activity, like many animals and plants, on the basis of innate instincts (unconditioned reflexes). And since the main tool of thinking is speech, it is necessary to develop your speech qualities and significantly expand your vocabulary. This will give even more arguments for making the right decision.

Another important feature that influences decision making is your emotions. They allow you to evaluate all the alternatives, their significance, the impact on the change in personal condition and the possibility of satisfying the need.

In many cases, when making a decision consciously does not work due to the large number of options or their complexity, a person relies precisely on his own. If the variant causes the strongest, positive emotions compared to other alternatives, then we can consider it optimal and implement it.

But in fact, many such solutions turn out to be suboptimal or even erroneous. Therefore, when there is an opportunity to comprehend all the options, to reflect on them, then you need to do this without fail, and not rely only on your emotions.

It can be said that emotions are unconscious memory and thinking, which are generally called intuition. It allows you to automatically make decisions without the participation of consciousness, mainly due to instincts and skills. It is very useful in many cases, especially in extreme, critical conditions when decisions need to be made very quickly.

Steps/Decision Making Process

From a psychological and physiological point of view, the decision-making process has several key stages:

1. Getting into problem situation : the emergence of a need, an unfulfilled desire, a lack of a resource, an external harmful effect, etc.

2. Shaping goals, the achievement of which will help to obtain a result that solves the problem.

3. Perception and processing information about the problem situation, the conditions for its occurrence, the assessment of its significance. For this, analyzer systems and cognitive processes (thinking, memory, imagination...) are used.

4. Formation of the field alternatives based on current conditions, past experience and predicted impacts. This field is formed from the universal set of all possible actions. A person only selects those options that can help achieve the goal.

5. Shaping criteria to evaluate alternatives.

6. Comparative grade alternatives by criteria and reasoning. Allows you to limit the field of alternatives, reduce it, identify the most significant options most capable of achieving the goal.

7. Choice the best option is the culmination of a decision.

8. Building willpower for solution implementation(signal transmission to effectors).

In general, the decision-making process can be represented as a tree-like, hierarchical structure. It contains many alternatives, which are generated by possible options and cut off the least promising "branches". This process ends when there is only one "branch" left - the decision made.

After a decision is made, of course, it is required implement. For this, in addition to creating a strong-willed effort, it is required to control, regulate and manage the implementation process. And after achieving the goal and getting the result, you need to estimate to what extent it matches what is expected. If it does not correspond, it is insufficient, i.e. the problem situation is not resolved, then a new decision is made and additional actions are performed.

You can learn more about the implementation of decisions in the methods Achieving success, Setting goals, Planning goals and affairs.

Now you understand what the essence of the decision-making process is, you know about its physiological basis, main components and stages.

Now it's time for the most important - practical methods , which will help you make decisions of any complexity and in any situation faster and more correctly. It is important to try them all, to understand which methods suit you best, to constantly apply them to successfully achieve personal goals and full self-realization.

In general, there are two type decision-making methods: algorithmic and heuristic.

Algorithmic methods assume that a person has sufficient information about a problem situation. Then the decision-making is reduced to the construction of a set of rules, following which the optimal variant is automatically selected, i.e. there is a high guarantee of making the right decision.

Heuristic methods are used when there is a significant lack of information about the problem situation, so making the right decision is not guaranteed. However, a person, using various heuristic techniques, can find a rational solution that is most suitable for the current conditions. Such techniques reduce the search area when solving a complex problem and quite satisfactorily provide a solution within a fairly short period of time.

Please note that most of the methods described below are based on your independent work and use of your internal resources (knowledge, experience, emotions, imagination...). For these methods, it is extremely important to organize a quiet, calm environment, to be alone with yourself, with your thoughts. Those. need to isolate as much as possible outside world so that nothing distracts and no one interferes.

This method uses the command experts competent in the matter on which the decision is to be made. Each expert evaluates possible options and then generalizes these estimates to select the most useful option.


Experts may not necessarily be professionals in some area with a special higher education. In many situations, relatives, friends, colleagues can help ...

To use this method, follow these steps:

1. All experts jointly draw up common list possible options.

2. Every expert evaluates each option, for example, on a scale from 1 to 10 or up to 100.

3. For each option summed up assessments of all experts.

4. The option that you typed is selected greatest assessment.

The result of this method can be a table like this:

If you want to get a more accurate solution, then you can additionally compile a list criteria to evaluate the option (for example, how difficult it is to implement, how many resources it requires, how long to implement it, etc.). Then each expert evaluates the options according to these criteria and determines total amount ratings.

This method can be used when there is a team with a leader. Used here Vroom-Yetton-Iago model. Its main idea is that the leader, i.e. the decision maker (DM), depending on the current conditions and the level of relations with the team, may involve participants in decision-making to varying degrees, not always apply to the whole team as a whole, or make a decision independently.


Model is situational, i.e. suggests that there is no universal way to make a decision, but it depends on the situation.

According to this model, there are 5 main decision making styles:

2. AII: leader receives necessary information from individual, competent team members and then makes the decision himself. At the same time, it is not necessary to inform the participants about what the leader decides (problems, goals, plan ...). In this case, participants simply provide information and do not participate in the search or evaluation of alternative, possibly more suitable options.

3. KI(team): the leader poses the problem individually to those participants who are competent in solving it, and listens to their ideas, suggestions and alternatives, but does not collect them together. Then the leader makes a decision, taking into account or not taking into account the information received.

4. KII: the leader presents the problem to the whole team, the participants generate ideas, express their thoughts, suggestions and alternatives, discuss them all together, supplement and improve them. Then the leader independently makes a decision, taking into account or not taking into account the information received.

5. ГII(Group): The leader presents the problem to the team. Participants all together find and evaluate possible alternatives and try to reach an agreement (consensus) in choosing the best option and making a decision for its implementation. In this case, the leader plays the role of a chairman, who does not seek to influence the team to make his decision, but makes and implements the decision that all participants consider the most acceptable, optimal.

To select a specific style depending on the situation, you need to use Vroom-Iago decision tree:


This tree takes into account the following Aspects situations (variables):

TM - method requirements. How accurate and correct you need to make a decision.

THAT - liability requirements. How many responsibilities the leader can delegate to the team.

IL - leader awareness. How much information about the problem situation and the goal the leader already has, i.e. how high is the certainty.

SP - problem structure. To what extent the leader understands the structure of the situation and goals.

VP - probability of submission. How much the team trusts the leader and is ready to implement any of his decisions.

OC - commonality of purpose. To what extent the decision made affects the overall goals of the team.

VC - likelihood of conflict. How likely is a conflict with the team in the absence of their participation in the decision.

IP - team awareness. How much information about the situation the participants already have, i.e. how competent the participants are in the area of ​​the decision being made.

Depending on the level of presence of these aspects in the situation (high or low), a specific decision-making style is selected through the decision tree.

The application of this method allows you to determine the best solutions that are guaranteed to achieve success and spend the least amount of resources. At the same time, relations with the team remain at the same level or even improve.

You can learn more about leadership in the Leadership method.

To get the most accurate solutions in the most difficult situations, you can use decision theory. Within its framework, many methods of mathematics, statistics, economics, management and psychology are used to select options for solving problems and achieving goals.

The methods of this theory are quite complex and time-consuming, but they give the most correct, optimal solutions. Among the methods there are both objective, deterministic methods, and subjective, probabilistic, applied depending on the complexity of the problem situation and the level of certainty.


This theory can be applied to optimization when making decisions to minimize costs and maximize revenues while achieving goals. For example, these are methods of linear or integer programming, graph theory, etc.

Another component of this theory is modeling, i.e. creation of models of real objects or processes, on the basis of which a decision is made. Such models allow predicting the consequences of choosing one or another decision, which helps to prevent Negative consequences and find the best option.

The theory allows you to make decisions both under the conditions of one goal (or factor), and in the presence of sets goals (multifactorial). It also takes into account situations where a decision can be made not by one person, but by group of people.

In connection with the described opportunities and difficulties, this theory is usually used only in large companies for the adoption strategic decisions to minimize risks and increase profits. For this, huge information and analytical complexes are being created, which are used by trained specialists. On the instructions of the management, they perform calculations, provide detailed reports on possible solutions, their effectiveness and importance.

Of course you can explore methods of this theory and apply them in their practice. This may take time, effort, perhaps the passage of special courses. But all this pays off with a significant increase in the accuracy of your decisions, which will affect your success and efficiency.

Dear Guest, This is the Most Valuable Part of the Method!!!

To read it TELL YOUR FRIENDS about this page.
Click on one of the social media buttons and add a post to your page.
For a hint on how to do this, hover over the question mark below the buttons.

Immediately after that, under these buttons will open AMAZING TEXT!

Conclusion

So decision making is extremely important process for adaptation, survival and self-realization of a person. If the decision is made incorrectly, erroneously, then the consequences can be simply catastrophic. This can lead to both material losses and death of people.

Therefore, it is very important to develop skill decision-making, apply the methods described above and make a careful choice of the best option. To improve the efficiency of decision making, it is better combine methods with each other depending on the complexity of the problem situation.

Believe into yourself, your internal resources that help you make decisions: your experience, memory, emotions, imagination, intellect ... They are quite enough to make the vast majority of decisions.


Of course, sometimes you can ask for help in making decisions with other people, specialists, experts and just close people. They can provide new information that will allow you to look at the problem situation from a different, perhaps unexpected side. This will give impetus to one of the options that you implement.

Necessarily write down everything related to decision making: alternatives, answers to questions, assessments, etc. This is especially necessary for complex situations where it is necessary to process a lot of information to make the right decision. Here, the proverb fits perfectly. Seven times measure cut once". If you make a decision hastily and quickly move on to its implementation, then you can spend significantly more resources than when implementing the optimal solution, or not achieve the goal at all.

Of course, there are situations when decisions need to be made practically. instantly. In order for the decision to be correct in these situations, skills are required - programs of automatic actions in specific conditions. Sometimes they talk about intuition, but these are the same skills and instincts that a person is able to use unconsciously.

In general, strive to make the right decisions in order to successfully and effectively achieve personal goals. Then your self-realization will end with a resounding success and you will create a real masterpiece that will become your great legacy and improve the lives of many people.

Bibliography

1. Maklakov A.G. General psychology: Textbook for universities. - St. Petersburg: Peter, 2012. - 583 p.

2. Danilova N. N., Krylova A. L. Physiology of higher nervous activity. - Rostov-on-Don: "Phoenix", 2005. - 478 p.

3. Pokrovsky V.M., Korotko G.F. Human physiology. Series: Educational literature for students of medical universities - M.: Medicine, 2007. - 656 p.

4. Orlov A.I. Theory of decision making // Textbook. - M.: Publishing house "Mart", 2004. - 656 p.

5. Vasilenko V.A., Shostka V.I. Situational management // Textbook, - Simferopol: TsUL, 2003. - 356 p.

6. Zagorodnikov A.N. Business public relations management. Textbook. - M: Crocus, 2013.

7. John Lehrer. How we make decisions - M: Astrel, 2010. - 352 p.

8. Davison M. Multidimensional scaling: Methods visual presentation data // M.: Finance and statistics, 1988. - 254 p.

Solution is the choice of an alternative. The ability to make managerial decisions develops with experience. We make everyday decisions without systematic deliberation. We think over long-term decisions in life. In management, decision making is a systematic process. The reasons for this are the responsibility for making decisions, the consequences for the entire company.

Programmed organizational decision is the result of implementing a sequence of steps and actions. Unprogrammed decisions arise when it is impossible to pre-compose a sequence of necessary steps. For example, how to improve product quality, sales volume.

Compromises. Almost all management decisions have negative consequences. It is necessary to take into account the possible consequences on all parts of the organization as a system (systems approach). The leader must understand that unmade decisions, "vane" tactics have an even worse result than making a bad decision.

Decision-making approaches:
  • difficult to make good decisions;
  • the decision maker is guided, among other things, by feelings, sometimes there is no logic in decisions.
There are three main types of management decisions made:
  • intuitive decisions are based on the feeling that the choice was made correctly. According to many successful leaders, many decisions (up to 80%) are made on the basis of intuition;
  • Judgment-based management decisions are choices based on knowledge and experience gained in the past. Advantages: fast and cheap adoption. But the fear of new areas of activity can hold back the development of the company;
  • rational decisions are justified through an objective analytical process, without relying on past experience.

Stages of a rational management decision

  • Problem diagnosis. A problem is not only an unresolved issue, but also an opportunity. The information should be relevant – pertinent, pertinent.
  • Formulation of restrictions and criteria for making managerial decisions. Constraints - the availability of resources from the manager and the organization so that decisions are realistic. The manager must have the authority to make this decision. Criteria are the standards by which alternative choices are to be judged. Criteria can be quantitative and qualitative. An example is the choice (purchase) of a car.
  • Definition of alternatives. Consider the time and cost of the selection process.
  • Evaluation of alternatives. The weighted average method is the cost (profit) of alternative projects. scoring method. Risk accounting.
  • Choice of an alternative. The search for an optimal (maximizing solution) is difficult; a satisfactory solution is usually chosen.
  • Implementation and feedback. Coordination of the obtained results with the expected ones.

Factors influencing the decision-making process

  • Personal assessments of the leader. Subjective opinion about priority tasks, emphasis, for example, on economic problems, and not on social ones.
  • Risk and uncertainty. Environmental factors. Uncertainty Reduction Opportunities: Obtaining additional information or acting on lessons learned.
  • Time. Success won't come right away.
  • The cost of information. The costs of information should be covered by income from its use and implementation. More information is not necessarily better.
  • The relationship of decisions. Systems approach.

Decision-making methods

Apply procedures such as scientific method, which consists of the following steps:

  • observation - collection and analysis of information;
  • formulation of a hypothesis (assumptions). BCG matrix - company size / profit;
  • verification - confirmation of the validity of the hypothesis.
The main decision-making methods include:
  • mathematical expectation (payoff matrix). The expected value of the indicator;
  • decision tree;
  • modeling. A model is a reduced, simplified copy of reality. The need for modeling is due to the complexity of processes, reducing the risks of implementation directly into practice, and the possibility of forecasts.
Model types:
  • physical model - an enlarged, reduced display of the object under study. Enterprise management structure;
  • analog model - replaces the object under study with an analog object that behaves like a real object. Graph of the dependence of unit costs on the volume of production;
  • mathematical model. Symbols and designations are used to describe the properties of an object, a formula.

Methods for forecasting rational management decisions

1. Informal information. Gossip. Industrial espionage.

2. Quantitative methods:

Time series analysis. Trends.

Task: Determine the volume of purchases of hamburgers in December, if over the past 5 years, demand in December has fallen by an average of 10% compared to November, and sales of hamburgers in a restaurant have grown by an average of 20% per year over the past 5 years.

Correlation-regression analysis. Correlation coefficient.

3. Qualitative methods:

  • jury opinion. "Brainstorm";
  • consumer expectation model. Based on the forecast of changes in demand;
  • method of expert assessments. . The results of the survey of experts are returned to them for discussion 3-4 times. This is how experts agree.

Making decisions

Decision theory- a field of study involving the concepts and methods of mathematics, statistics, economics, management and psychology; studies the patterns of people's choice of ways to solve various kinds of problems, and also explores ways to find the most profitable possible solutions.

Distinguish normative theory, which describes rational process decision making and descriptive theory describing the practice of decision making.

Forecasting and planning

Decision theory claims that forecasting and planning are one and the same thing - essentially the same pattern recognition algorithms are used for their algorithmization. It can be shown that all the forecasting techniques used can be formalized in terms of a multidimensional regression analysis(at least in the part where regression approximates pattern recognition methods).

Ergodicity problem

In order to make "rigorous" statistically reliable forecasts for the future, you need to get a sample of future data. Since this is impossible, many experts assume that samples from past and current, for example, market indicators are equivalent to a sample from the future. In other words, if you take this point of view, it turns out that the predicted indicators are only statistical shadows of past and current market signals. This approach reduces the analyst's job to figuring out how market participants receive and process market signals. Without the stability of the series, it is impossible to draw reasonable conclusions. But this does not mean at all that the series should be stable in everything. For example, it can have stable variances and completely non-stationary means - in this case, we will draw conclusions only about the variance, otherwise, only about the mean. Resilience can also be more exotic. The search for stability in series is one of the tasks of statistics.

If decision makers believe that the process is not stationary (stable), and therefore ergodic, and even if they believe that the probability distribution functions of investment expectations can still be calculated, then these functions are “susceptible to sudden (that is, unpredictable) changes” and the system is essentially unpredictable.

Decision making under uncertainty

Uncertainty conditions are considered to be a situation where the results of the decisions being made are unknown. Uncertainty is divided into stochastic (there is information about the probability distribution over a set of outcomes), behavioral (there is information about the impact on the results of the behavior of the participants), natural (there is information only about possible outcomes and no information about the relationship between decisions and outcomes) and a priori (there is no information and about possible outcomes). The task of substantiating decisions under conditions of uncertainty of all types, except for a priori, is reduced to narrowing the initial set of alternatives based on the information available to the decision maker. The quality of recommendations for decision-making under conditions of stochastic uncertainty is enhanced by taking into account such characteristics of the decision maker's personality as the attitude to one's own gains and losses, and the propensity to take risks. Justification of decisions under conditions of a priori uncertainty is possible by constructing adaptive control algorithms

Choice Under Uncertainty

This area represents the core of decision theory.

The term now known as expected value (expected value) has been around since the 17th century. Blaise Pascal used this in his famous bet (see below), which is contained in his Pensées, published in . The idea of ​​expected value is that in the face of multiple actions, where each of them can produce several possible outcomes with different probabilities, a rational procedure should identify all possible results, determine their values ​​(positive or negative) and probabilities, then multiply the corresponding values ​​and probabilities and add to give the total "expected value". The action to be chosen should give the highest expected value.

Pascal's Wager - Choice Under Uncertainty

Errors of the first and second kind

The division of erroneous decisions into errors of the first and second kind is due to the fact that the consequences of various kinds of erroneous decisions are fundamentally different in terms of the fact that the lost gain has less impact on the situation than the realized loss. For example, for a stockbroker, the consequences of not buying shares when they should have been bought are different from the consequences of not buying shares when they should not have been bought. First situation Can mean lost profit, the second is direct losses up to the ruin of the broker. Similarly, for a politician, refusing to seize power in a revolutionary situation differs in consequences from a failed attempt to seize power. For a general, starting a military operation that will be lost is much worse than missing a situation where a successful operation could be carried out. At the same time, the classification of errors of the first and second kind is permissible only in situations where accurate accounting and analysis of risks is maintained. So, S. Gafurov noted for the situation of stock brokers: “Many people believe that strategic objective analytical services (unlike other divisions of investment companies) - not to increase profits, but to minimize possible losses. And this is the fundamental difference. From the point of view of game theory, the optimal decisions of analysts should be different from the optimal trader's actions. It is assumed that the optimal strategies implemented in the recommendations of analysts come from the principle of minimizing maximum losses(minimax), while minimax is an unacceptable strategy for traders (minimizing the maximum loss in the market - do not play), and in general view optimization of traders' decisions is formalized only in terms of the Bayesian approach. Hence the need for special functional units that ensure the balance of strategies - fund managers. Companies expect unbiased forecasts and informed recommendations from stock analysts. Some properties of such forecasts are obvious: accuracy, reliability. Others, such as reproducibility, methodological correctness, or robustness (independence of forecast results from the coordinate system), often remain out of sight of both specialists making forecasts and those who evaluate these forecasts ”(Cosi Fan Tutti Stock Analysts." Securities Market "No. 24/1997 http://www.gafourov.narod.ru/Cosfantutti.htm).

Alternatives to probability theory

A very controversial issue is whether the use of probability in decision theory can be replaced by other alternatives. Proponents of fuzzy logic, possibility theory, Dempster-Schafer evidence theory, and others support the view that probability is only one of many alternatives and point to many examples where non-standard alternatives have been used with apparent success. Defenders of probability theory point to

  • the work of Richard Threlkeld Cox in justifying the axioms of probability theory;
  • the paradoxes of Bruno de Finetti as an illustration of the theoretical difficulties that can arise from the rejection of the axioms of probability theory;
  • perfect class theorems, which show that all admissible decision rules are equivalent to a Bayesian decision rule with some prior distribution (possibly inappropriate) and some utility function. Thus, for any decision rule generated by improbability methods, either there is an equivalent Bayesian rule, or there is a Bayesian rule that is never worse, but (at least) sometimes better.

The validity of the probability measure was called into question only once - by J. M. Keynes in his treatise "Probability" (1910). But the author himself in the 30s called this work "the worst and most naive" of his works. And in the 30s he became an active supporter of the axiomatics of Kolmogorov - R. von Mises and never questioned it. Finiteness of probability and countable additivity are strong limitations, but an attempt to remove them without destroying the buildings of the whole theory turned out to be futile. This was recognized in 1974 by one of the brightest critics of Kolmogorov's axiomatics, Bruno de Finetti.

Moreover, he actually showed the opposite - the rejection of countable additivity makes the operations of integration and differentiation impossible and, therefore, makes it impossible to use the apparatus of mathematical analysis in probability theory. Therefore, the task of abandoning countable additivity is not the task of reforming the theory of probability, it is the task of abandoning the use of methods of mathematical analysis in the study of the real world.

Attempts to abandon the finiteness of probabilities led to the construction of a probability theory with several probability spaces on each of which the Kolmogorov axioms were satisfied, but the total probability should no longer be finite. But so far no meaningful results are known that could be obtained within the framework of this axiomatic, but not within the framework of Kolmogorov's axiomatics. Therefore, this generalization of Kolmogorov's axioms is still purely scholastic.

The paradox of choice

A paradox observed in many cases, where more choice can lead to a poorer decision or, in general, to a refusal to make a decision. This is sometimes theoretically explained by what is called "analysis paralysis", real or perceived, and perhaps also "rational ignorance". Many researchers, including Sheena S. Iyengar and Mark R. Lepper, have published studies of this phenomenon. (Goode, 2001)

Notes

see also

Literature

  • Orlov A. I. Theory of decision making: textbook. - M.: Exam, 2006. - 573 p. ISBN 5-472-01393-3
  • Orlov A. I. Decision making. Theory and methods of development of management decisions. Tutorial. - M.: March, 2005. - 496 with ISBN 5-241-00629-X
  • Litvak B. G. Development of a management decision - M .: Delo Publishing House, 2004 - 392 p.
  • Litvak B. G. Expert assessments and decision making. - M .: Patent, 1996. - 271 p.
  • Hemdy A. Taha Chapter 14 Game Theory and Decision Making// Introduction to Operations Research = Operations Research: An Introduction. - 7th ed. - M.: "Williams", 2007. - S. 549-594. - ISBN 0-13-032374-8
  • G. Theil. Economic forecasts and decision making. M.: "Progress" 1970.
  • C. D. Lewis. Methods for forecasting economic indicators. M .: "Finance and statistics" 1986.
  • G. S. Kildishev, A. A. Frenkel. Time series analysis and forecasting. M.: "Statistics" 1973.
  • Joe. Kim, C.W. Muller, W.R. Klekka, et al. Factor, discriminant, and cluster analysis. M .: "Finance and statistics" 1989.
  • B. Duran, P. Odell. cluster analysis. M.: "Statistics" 1977.
  • Sven Ove Hansson, "Decision Theory: A Brief Introduction", http://www.infra.kth.se/~soh/decisiontheory.pdf ( an excellent non-technical and fairly comprehensive primer)
  • Paul Goodwin And George Wright, Decision Analysis for Management Judgment, 3rd edition. Chichester: Wiley, 2004 ISBN 0-470-86108-8 (covers both normative and descriptive theory)
  • Robert Clement. Making Hard Decisions: An Introduction to Decision Analysis, 2nd edition. Belmont CA: Duxbury Press, 1996. (covers normative decision theory)
  • D.W. North. "A tutorial introduction to decision theory". IEEE Trans. Systems Science and Cybernetics, 4(3), 1968. Reprinted in Shafer & Pearl. (also about normative decision theory)
  • Glenn Shafer and Judea Pearl, editors. Readings in uncertain reasoning. Morgan Kaufmann, San Mateo, CA, 1990.
  • Howard Raiffa Decision Analysis: Introductory Readings on Choices Under Uncertainty. McGraw Hill. 1997. ISBN 0-07-052579-X
  • Morris De Groot Optimal Statistical Decisions. Wiley Classics Library. 2004. (Originally published 1970.) ISBN 0-471-68029-X.
  • Khemani , Karan, Ignorance is Bliss: A study on how and why humans depend on recognition heuristics in social relationships, the equity markets and the brand market-place, thereby making successful decisions, 2005.
  • J.Q. Smith Decision Analysis: A Bayesian Approach. Chapman and Hall. 1988. ISBN 0-412-27520-1
  • Akerlof, George A. and Janet L. YELLEN, Rational Models of Irrational Behavior
  • Arthur, W. Brian, Designing Economic Agents that Act like Human Agents: A Behavioral Approach to Bounded Rationality
  • James O. Berger Statistical Decision Theory and Bayesian Analysis. second edition. 1980. Springer Series in Statistics. ISBN 0-387-96098-8.
  • Goode, Erica. (2001) In Weird Math of Choices, 6 Choices Can Beat 600. The New York Times. Retrieved May 16, 2005.
  • Anderson, Barry F. The Three Secrets of Wise Decision Making. Single Reef Press. 2002. ISBN 0-9722177-0-3.

Links

  • Decision making by the manager (cognitive competencies)
  • Sologub G.B., MAI. Abstracts of lectures and seminars on the theory of decision making.

Wikimedia Foundation. 2010 .

Any person constantly has to make decisions about what to buy, what to eat, what job to choose, where to go, and always a choice among many alternatives.

The managerial decision is distinguished by conscientiousness and special responsibility, because is of a public nature, affecting the interests of many groups of people, and therefore requires a particularly balanced scientific approach. The manager has the power, the authority to make decisions, he is also responsible for its implementation, for the use of resources, for the fate of people. Decision making is a choice the best way achieve any management goal in the process of analyzing options.

Types of management decisions:

By the nature of problem solving - strategic and operational

According to the degree of certainty of the environment - in terms of certainty, in terms of risk and in terms of risk

According to the degree of task structuring - well structured (programmable, algorithmic) and weakly structured (non-standard, non-programmable, heuristic)

By functional areas - financial, personnel, production, etc.

By the number of participants - individual (sole), collegiate and collective

According to the method of acceptance - based on judgments, intuitive and rational.

Strategic decisions are made in connection with the solution of complex problems of the enterprise, with major changes in the organization, the development of a new strategy for the organization (for example, restructuring of the enterprise, negotiations with the union, production of a new type of product, reorientation of the business). Operational decisions are related to current activities, the implementation of short-term plans.

Structured decisions are built on the basis of established rules, methods, procedures, policies, have few choices, are made on the basis of mathematical calculations (for example, choosing a route for delivering cargo, scheduling work). Weakly structured solutions are required in completely new, non-standard situations, they are associated with unknown factors, therefore they require a creative, innovative approach to solve them, there are many options to choose from.

Decisions are made in different circumstances in relation to risk: 1. in conditions of certainty; 2. at risk; 3. in conditions of uncertainty.

Under conditions of certainty, the manager knows exactly the result of each of the alternative options, for example, when calculating the cost of manufacturing a product, the estimated volumes of fixed and variable costs are known, as a result of which, by making calculations based on available methods, a managerial decision is made. Under conditions of certainty, there is a limited number of alternatives.

Decisions under risk include those decisions whose outcomes are not certain, but the probability of each is known. Probability is defined as a degree of possibility between 0 and 1, and the sum of the probabilities of the alternatives must equal 1.

The most desirable way to determine the probability is the objectivity and reliability of the information, it can be determined mathematically by statistical analysis or based on experience. When a manager does not have enough information to objective evaluation probability, it is necessary to determine the estimated probability.

Uncertainty is characterized by the impossibility of obtaining reliable information. The factors are so new and complex that potential outcomes cannot be determined. This kind of uncertainty is typical for today's rapidly changing external environment of organizations, when the constantly changing state of the economic, political, technological environment does not allow making reliable forecasts for the future. When making intuitive decisions, the choice is made based on the feeling that this decision will be the right one. Many senior managers make successful decisions based on intuition, but this requires special flair and talent.

Judgment-based decisions are based on experience and the knowledge that in the past such a decision has been successful, but such an approach in a new situation may lead to failure. Each new managerial situation presents new options for combining internal and external variables, so a balanced rational approach to decision-making is a necessary condition for the manager's professional competence. Making a rational decision is an objective analytical process consisting of a sequence of the following steps. The process of preparing and making a decision includes:

  1. Identification and diagnosis of the problem (problem structuring, goal setting)
  2. Formulation of decision criteria and constraints
  3. Identification and analysis of alternatives, selection of the best option
  4. Solution implementation and execution control
  5. Assessment of the consequences of the decision

1. Identification, diagnosis and structuring of the problem. A problem is a complex issue that requires resolution, study, and collection of information. The decision-making process begins with obtaining information about the internal and external environment based on market analysis, reading financial reports and other documentation, interviewing, interviewing employees, observing, etc. At the same time, the reliability of information and its completeness are determined, it is filtered, analyzed. When making a decision, relevant information is especially needed, i.e. the information that most fully relates to the case illuminates this problem. Well-established communications are of great importance in gathering information about the problem.

An effective method of structuring and identifying the causes of a problem is the Ishikawa cause-and-effect diagram or “fishbone diagram”.

2. Formulation of constraints and decision criteria.

Many possible solutions to a problem will not be realistic because the resources of the organization are limited or it is impossible to change the laws, i.e. there are always certain limitations that limit the possibilities of the organization. The constraints may be, for example, a shortage of experienced skilled workers, unacceptable purchase prices, expensive technology, a high level of competition, ethical standards, legislation.

Decision criteria are the standards by which alternative choices are judged. When choosing criteria, indicators acceptable to the organization are determined: for example, the lowest costs, maximization of production volumes, the timing of the implementation of the solution, maximization of profit, etc.

3. Formation of possible solutions, their evaluation and selection of the best option - this is the stage of determining alternatives for solving the problem. At the same time, those alternatives are selected that best meet the decision criteria and existing restrictions. According to the formulated criteria, experts evaluate them on the basis of predicting the results of the possible implementation of each option. As a result, the most desirable, realistic and rational option is selected, the consequences of which are most favorable.

4. Implementation of the solution and control of the solution. After a decision is made, it must be implemented, and for this it is necessary to bring the decision to a specific contractor, convince him of the correctness and expediency of the decision and receive feedback - data on the implementation and results achieved of the decisions made, if deviations are identified, then they need to be corrected.

There are many methods and methods of decision-making, giving the decision-making process scientific and rationalism. These are, first of all, methods of modeling and quantitative analysis. The use of models in decision-making is aimed at assessing the prospects for the implementation of alternative options that exclude the intuitive way of making decisions.

A model is a representation of an object, system or process in a somewhat simplified form. Modeling is copying a situation with the help of a model, giving properties and elements of an object a quantitative character, building a model, studying a model, experimenting in various situations. The purpose of modeling is to obtain new information about the objects under study that is not recorded in the initial data. Modeling methods were developed by the management science school and have been widely used in business practice.

Model types:

physical model - a real image of an object in a reduced or enlarged version (model of a building, model of a car, aircraft);

analog model - such a representation of an object where real elements are replaced by others that differ in shape or properties (a map of the area, a graph, a diagram);

symbolic or mathematical model. Here, the properties or elements of an object are depicted as an equation, a function. Such a model is characterized by a higher level of abstraction, for example, the formula of the quantity theory of money: MV=PQ allows you to manipulate this model and find the value of the various components of the formula: M=PQ/V; V=PQ/M.

Models can serve a variety of management purposes. They can help the manager to imagine the general perspective of a particular situation. The most obvious example of a model is the organizational chart, which depicts the chain of command and division of labor in an organization. If it is necessary to reorganize the company, for example, in the process of implementing a new strategy for the organization, the manager will first build a new model of the organizational structure that meets the solution of the new tasks of the company, strict subordination in the transfer of responsibility. At the same time, not a single element of the organization should be missed, only after the design and construction of the model will a decision be made on the implementation of the reorganization. When making a decision on investing funds, the manager will first calculate the risks and future profitability of alternative investments, only then will the most optimal solution that will bring the greatest return be chosen. To help managers, there are a huge variety of modeling and decision-making methods.

Management Models

1. Game theory

Game theory is a method for modeling the evaluation of the impact of a decision on competitors. Game theory was developed by the military to take into account the possible behavior of the enemy in the strategy. In business, game models are used to predict how competitors will react to price changes, service offerings, modifications, and new product introductions. If, for example, using game theory, management determines that competitors will not do the same when prices rise, it should forgo this step in order not to be at a competitive disadvantage. At the same time, variants of strategies for different participants in the game are developed and the gains and losses of different parties are calculated in the implementation of each strategy.

2. Queue theory model

The queuing theory model, otherwise called the optimal service model, is used to determine the maximum number of service channels in relation to the need for them. Situations in which the queuing theory model can be useful include calling people to the airline to reserve a seat and get information, waiting in line for machine data processing, equipment repairmen, queuing trucks for unloading at a warehouse, and customers waiting for a free cashier in a bank. If customers have to wait too long for the cashier, they may decide to transfer their accounts to another bank. Thus, the fundamental problem is to balance the cost of additional service channels and the loss of service below the optimal level when customers are lost. The queuing theory model provides management with a tool to determine the optimal number of service channels that need to be in order to balance the costs in the case of a small or excessively large number of them.

3.Inventory management model

It is used to determine the time of placing orders for resources and their quantities, as well as the mass of finished products in warehouses. Every organization must maintain some level of inventory to avoid delays in production and distribution. The purpose of this model is to minimize costs in case of negative consequences of stockpiling. There are three types of inventory costs: ordering costs, storage costs, and losses associated with insufficient inventory levels and production downtime. The management is faced with the problem of orders in large quantities, which leads to a decrease in the cost of placing orders, and at the same time, excess inventory binds working capital, increases the cost of their storage and insurance. The application of the inventory management model helps to solve the problem of the optimal amount of inventory.

4. Model of linear programming

It is used to determine the best way to allocate scarce resources in the presence of competing needs. In business practice, linear programming models are used to solve the following problems:

· Advanced production planning. Designing production schedules that minimize total costs, taking into account the costs of changing the interest rate, given labor constraints, and inventory levels.

· Product line planning. Determination of the optimal range of products, taking into account costs and resource requirements.

· Routing of production of a product. Determination of the optimal route for the manufacture of a product for all machining centers, taking into account costs and productivity.

Management technological process. Minimization of production waste, such as fabric waste on a roll when cutting.

· Stock management. Determination of the optimal combination of products in a warehouse or warehouse.

· Production scheduling. Create cost-saving schedules that take into account inventory costs, overtime, and outsourced orders.

· Planning distribution of products. Drawing up an optimal shipment schedule, taking into account the distribution of products between manufacturing enterprises and warehouses, shops retail.

· Determination of the optimal location of the new plant. Taking into account the estimated costs of transporting supplies and sales.

· Transport scheduling. Minimization of the cost of delivering trucks for loading and transport vessels to loading berths.

· Distribution of workers on machines and workplaces.

Source - Tsyrenova A.A. Management: Educational and methodological manual - Ulan-Ude: ESGTU Publishing House, 2006. - p.114

The most important reserve for increasing the efficiency of all social production is to improve the quality of decisions made, which is achieved by improving the decision-making process.

Decision making is an integral part of any managerial function. The need to make a decision permeates everything that a manager does, setting goals and achieving them. Therefore, understanding the nature of decision making is extremely important for anyone who wants to excel in the art of management.

Effective decision-making is necessary for the performance of managerial functions. Improving the process of making informed objective decisions in situations of exceptional complexity is achieved by using a scientific approach to this process, models and quantitative methods of decision making.

The decision is a certain process, consisting of a number of separate acts and procedures. His volitional factor is one of the moments that guide the process of developing and making a decision. Depending on the volitional factor, the solution may be different, therefore, it is ambiguous. The purpose of the volitional factor is to choose one option.

The decision presupposes a preliminary awareness of the goals and means of action. Awareness is a process that is based on information about the goal and means of action. However, this is not a simple transformation of information, but a more complex process that involves linking goals and means. If the goal is given, then the process of awareness consists in the perception and comprehension of what is given along with the establishment of relationships between the goal and the means. If the goal is not set and it needs to be defined (or at least clarified), then a volitional act is included in awareness. The number of possible targets can also be very large, so there is no precise way to determine or select the best option. In this case, volitional choice becomes decisive. In the same way, the moment of choice becomes crucial when there is no strict way to unambiguously choose between competing alternatives, even if there are a finite or small number of them.

Management decision - is the result of analysis, forecasting, optimization, economic justification and selection of alternatives from a variety of options to achieve a specific goal of the management system.

A person can be called a manager only when he makes organizational decisions or implements them through other people. Decision making is an integral part of any managerial function. The need for decision-making permeates everything that the manager does, formulating goals and achieving them.

Management decision-making methods are specific ways in which a problem can be solved. There are quite a few of them, for example:

Decomposition - presentation of a complex problem as a set of simple questions;

Diagnostics is the search for the most important details in the problem, which are solved in the first place. This method is used when resources are limited.

It is necessary to distinguish between methods of making managerial decisions based on mathematical modeling and methods based on psychological methods of working in groups.

Management decision-making methods based on mathematical modeling

Expert methods of making managerial decisions. An expert is a person who is considered by the decision maker or the review team to be a professional enough high level in some question. Experts are invited to conduct an examination.

Examination - carrying out by a group of competent specialists of measuring some characteristics to prepare a decision. Expertise reduces the risk of making an erroneous decision.

When conducting examinations, expert assessments are used, which are of several types. Let's give brief description each type of peer review.

Quantitative expression of preference (estimation) - comparison of the values ​​of different estimates according to the principle: how many or how many times one estimate is greater than the other.

Are used following scales: relationships; intervals; differences; absolute. Quantitative estimates correspond, as a rule, to objective measurements of objective indicators.

Ranking - ordering objects in accordance with their preference in descending order. In this case, it is allowed to indicate the equivalence of some objects (for example, determining the winners of the competition, determining the best, reliable banks).

Pairwise comparison - specifying the preferred object in each pair of objects. Sometimes it is acceptable to declare o6oirx objects equal or incomparable.

Verbal-numerical scales are used to obtain and process qualitative expert information by quantitative methods.

Delphi method - got its name from the name of the Greek city of Delphi, whose priests were famous for their ability to predict the future (Delphian oracles). The method is characterized by three main features: anonymity, regulated feedback, group response. Anonymity is achieved by using special questionnaires or other methods of individual survey. Regulated feedback is carried out by conducting several rounds of the survey. The results of each round are processed using statistical methods and reported to the experts. The result of processing individual grades are group grades. The method is based on the following prerequisites:

The questions posed must allow answers in the form of numbers;

· Experts must be sufficiently informed;

Each expert's answer must be substantiated by him.

Non-expert methods of making managerial decisions. Non-specialist method - a method in which the issue is resolved by persons who have never dealt with this problem, but are experts in related fields.

Linear programming is a method in which optimization problems are solved in which the objective function and functional constraints are linear functions with respect to variables that take any value from some set of values. One example of a linear programming problem is the transportation problem.

Simulation is a way of forming a decision, in which the decision maker comes to a reasonable compromise in the values ​​of various criteria. At the same time, the computer, according to a given program, simulates and reproduces the course of the process under study with several possible control options given to it, the results obtained are analyzed and evaluated.

The game theory method is a method in which problems are solved under conditions of complete uncertainty. This means the presence of such conditions under which the process of performing an operation is uncertain or the enemy counteracts consciously, or there are no clear and precise goals and objectives of the operation. The consequence of this uncertainty is that the success of an operation depends not only on the decisions of the people making them, but also on the decisions or actions of other people. "Most often this method is used to resolve conflict situations.

The analogy method is the search for possible solutions to problems based on borrowing from other management objects.

Management decision-making methods based on creative thinking (psychological methods). The creative thinking process has five stages:

1. Preparation - collection of evidence. Convergent (analytical) thinking is used. The problem is defined from different angles, in its different formulations.

2. Mental efforts - the use of divergent thinking, which leads either to a possible solution to the problem, or to frustration (disappointment). (Frustration is an important factor, usually followed by the development of really good ideas.)

3. Incubation - the problem remains in the subconscious, while the person is doing other things. During this time, emotional inhibition and opposition to new ideas weakens, and it also becomes possible to perceive new ideas that may arise during this time.

4. Illumination - a "flash" that makes it possible to solve the problem under consideration.

5. Evaluation - analysis of all the ideas received in the previous stages.

The stages of preparation and evaluation require analytical thinking, while mental effort, incubation and insight require creative freedom and relaxation. All sorts of crazy ideas are encouraged, the goal of the methods used is the quantity of ideas, not quality. With an abundance of ideas, new ideas become the development of previously expressed ones. The key to successful creative thinking is a sensible and purposeful separation of idea generation and idea evaluation.

One of the most common methods of creative thinking of a manager is the method of "Brainstorming", or "Brainstorming" ("Brainstorming"). Unlike methods aimed at finding the only correct solution to the problem, the meaning of the method " brain attack» is to offer the maximum number of ideas to employees without their evaluation or selection.

A manager can use Brainstorming: to find an innovative solution; at the start of a meeting to "break the ice" between attendees; to strengthen the team.

There are two ways to conduct Brainstorming: verbal and written. Preference is given to oral, as it takes less time, but written is more thorough.