Risks, challenges, threats. An important methodological clarification should be made here. We consider risks, challenges and threats as different degrees of danger. In this terminological series, risks are the most low level hazards, and threats are the highest level. At the same time, the most important component of the policy national security consists in the development and skillful application of technologies for translating threats into challenges, and challenges into risks. If risks develop into challenges, and challenges into threats, then this is an undoubted sign of serious failures in the national security system of a particular country. Hence the conclusion: the analysis of any problem of national and international security must begin with an analysis of risks, challenges and threats and the possibilities of translating threats into challenges, and challenges into risks.

Beginning of the 21st century are characterized by a worldwide increase in the number of social, economic, man-made and environmental threats of various levels. Modern challenges are characterized by ever-increasing complexity, due to the complication of technological, financial and political interrelations in socio-economic systems - they determine more and more difficult to predict new combinations of threat risk parameters and the scale of their consequences. Moreover, challenges and threats are increasingly turning into a self-sustaining process, resembling a vicious circle due to the uncertainty of causes and causal relationships, and their ineffective management. The difference in the types of security threats, their sources and scale requires, accordingly, differences in the organization of the system to counter them.

The threat to national security is becoming more and more diverse and is no longer exclusively military. Such problems of a planetary scale as the growth of stocks of weapons of mass destruction, international terrorism, organized violence and armed conflicts, mass poverty in developing countries, degradation environment, flows of refugees, drugs, crime, bring with them global threats that can only be countered by collective efforts. These problems cannot be solved with just military force or by means of a separate nation state. A global mechanism for coordination and cooperation between countries is needed.

The second fact that confirms the trend towards global interconnectedness is that in many regions there is a gradual shift towards joint defense or multilateral security measures. At present, military globalization, global threats and challenges force us to seriously rethink the idea of ​​national security and its practical implementation. The doctrine of national security remains one of the most important principles of modern statehood.

Geopolitical threats are those phenomena that destabilize the geopolitical situation in the world, and if they are not resisted, not controlled, they can lead to world chaos. Geopolitical threats include regional and local wars, violation of the nuclear non-proliferation regime, modern production and trade in weapons, international terrorism, modern conflicts, environmental degradation, the problem of demography and global migration.

In the modern world, security is provided by:

The United Nations, which can be called an intergovernmental organization of the global level.

In the main regions of the world, along with the already existing intergovernmental organizations, new ones are emerging. NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) remains the main operating international military and infrastructure in the Euro-Atlantic space

In addition to NATO, the OSCE (Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe) is an influential structure in the field of European security. There are “three baskets” in the OSCE system.

The first is questions of political security proper and arms control;

The second is the development of cooperation in the field of economy, science and technology, and the environment;

The third is cooperation in the humanitarian and other fields (public contacts, information, culture, education), as well as human rights.

This organization mainly focuses on solving humanitarian problems and, above all, the problems of human rights.

The international regional security structure in the post-Soviet space is the Organization of the Treaty on collective security(CSTO).

2. Major modern international conflicts: their causes, features and prospects. (Guys, here I think everyone should take their own example of an international conflict, we discussed them in lectures)

In terms of theory international relations international conflict is treated as a special political attitude of two or more parties - peoples, states or a group of states - which concentratedly reproduces in the form of an indirect or direct collision economic, social-class, political, territorial, national, religious or other interests in nature and character. International conflicts, therefore, are a kind of international relations in which various states based on conflicts of interest.

Scientists name the causes of international conflicts:

» competition among states;

» mismatch of national interests;

» territorial claims;

» social injustice on a global scale;

» uneven distribution of natural resources in the world;

» negative perception of each other by the parties;

» personal incompatibility of leaders, etc.

Various terminologies are used to characterize international conflicts: “hostility”, “struggle”, “crisis”, “armed confrontation”, etc. A generally accepted definition of an international conflict does not yet exist due to the variety of its features and properties of political, economic, social, ideological, diplomatic, military and international legal character. One of the recognized in Western political science definitions of international conflict were given by K. Wright in the mid-60s: “Conflict is a certain relationship between states that can exist at all levels, to various degrees. Broadly speaking, conflict can be divided into four stages:

1. awareness of incompatibility;

2. increasing tension;

3. pressure without the use of military force to resolve the incompatibility;

4. military intervention or war to impose a solution.

Researchers distinguish between positive and negative functions of international conflicts. The positives include:

♦prevention of stagnation in international relations;

♦ stimulation of creative principles in search of ways out of difficult situations;

♦ determination of the degree of mismatch between the interests of the states' goals;

♦ preventing larger conflicts and ensuring stability by institutionalizing low-intensity conflicts.

The destructive functions of international conflicts are seen in the fact that they:

Cause disorder, instability and violence;

Increase the stressful state of the psyche of the population in the participating countries;

They give rise to the possibility of ineffective political decisions.

The specifics of interstate conflicts are determined by the following:

Their subjects are states or coalitions;

Interstate conflicts are based on the clash of national-state interests of the conflicting parties;

Interstate conflict is a continuation of the policy of the participating states;

Modern interstate conflicts both locally and globally affect international relations;

Interstate conflict today carries a danger mass death people in participating countries and around the world.

The classifications of interstate conflicts can be based on: the number of participants, the scale, the means used, the strategic goals of the participants, the nature of the conflict.

The concept of "threat". External and internal threats.

Security is the state of being protected from threats to key values, especially those that could endanger the survival of an entity.

Security Threat – A potential breach of security; an act or event that could result in significant damage or loss of a key value.

Ken bus: safety = "survival+"

Threats can be different depending on the types of security: military, political, economic and others (see question 3).

High Level Panel (UN) report, threat categories:

1) Economic and social, including poverty, infections, ecology

2) Interstate conflict,

3) Internal state. conflict, incl. genocide, civil wars...

4) Weapons of mass destruction

5) Terrorism

6) Transnational crime.

Akadem.. debate: focus on threats to core values ​​or focus on issues of armed conflict and the use of military force.

According to the source of threats are divided into external and internal.

In international relations, the main subject of security is the state.

External - those that come from outside the subject in question. That is, if we are talking about the security of the state, these are threats that come from abroad: the unfriendly policy of other countries, the activities of international criminal groups, etc.

Internal - those that come from within the subject. Remaining within the category of state security: "internal" extremist groups, economic phenomena that pose a threat to security (poverty, social inequality).

At the present stage, due to the fact that neoliberal globalization is taking place (fuck it…), the boundaries are blurring and the line between internal and external threats may also turn out to be more blurred. An example - the 9/11 terrorist attack was prepared largely on the territory of the United States itself (training in flight schools, etc.), and in general the activities of persons associated with foreign criminal organizations within this country.

cross-border threats. (flows of refugees from a neighboring country where there is an internal conflict)

Intrastate conflicts pose a threat to neighbors, in some cases the threat of WMD falling into the wrong hands.

Another example is environmental threats. For the nature of the state. borders do not exist, so they can be both internal and external.

Traditional and new threats, ratio

The traditional threats to security are threats of a military-political nature. For example, the concept of "international security" has traditionally been understood as the absence of wars between states. Ensuring security boiled down to ensuring that no one attacked us, and if they attacked, they would be defeated. Means - ensuring a balance of power through the conclusion of alliances, strengthening the army and navy.


New threats are those that have become relevant in recent decades. Previously, they were not considered in view of the fact that the relevant areas were not as important as they are now (economics), or there was simply no real basis for these threats (WMD proliferation)

Kulagin classification:

New threats:

Terrorism

WMD proliferation

Internal armed conflicts

These threats are still closely linked to military security. Kulagin also highlights the “second row” threats:

drug trafficking

Piracy

Illegal migration

Transnational organized crime

Threats to information and cyber security.

These threats differ from the other three new threats in that they are not used by the military, but by the police, anti-drugs and similar services. Although in some cases they are also very serious (Afghan drugs for Russia, US cybersecurity strategy)

There are also non-military threats: the economy, energy, ecology, public safety…

The changed nature of the economic structure makes it pointless to seize political control of the territory.

The division of security issues into traditional and new challenges and threats is rather arbitrary. Traditional threats - such as cross-border aggression - are not so much receding into the background as changing shape. The threat of a global nuclear war has decreased, but the process of nuclear proliferation has led to the fact that this threat has arisen in regions that were previously considered peripheral. The ideological struggle between communism and liberal democracy has given way to a struggle between democracy and religious extremism. Religious wars, interethnic conflicts, armed separatism and irredentism engulf countries and entire regions. At the same time, domestic problems become the main source of tension. The threat of terrorism, which arose back in the 19th century, has risen to a global level with the development of science and technology. Science and technology open up new areas of confrontation, including military ones, such as cyberspace. A number of threats - from epidemics of deadly diseases to the consequences of climate change - do not have a source in human society, but pose a danger to humanity as a whole. The globalization of security issues, the close interweaving of internal and external factors lead to an extremely broad and varied agenda. This is one of the main features international environment beginning of the 21st century compared to the simpler environment of the second half of the 20th century.

From the point of view of the evolution of the system of international relations, the boundary between the modern era and its immediate predecessor - the period cold war- occurs in the late 1980s - early 1990s. Termination of military-political confrontation and ideological confrontation between East and West, Soviet Union and China; the beginning of the era of reforms in China; accelerating economic growth in India; the beginning of the formation of a united Europe under the flag of the European Union; democratization of dozens of states from Latin America and Africa to of Eastern Europe and South-East Asia: these and other major changes marked the emergence of a new quality of international relations.

This new quality required a fundamental revision of the problems of international security. During the entire period of the Cold War from the late 1940s to the late 1980s. it was dominated by issues of relations between the two superpowers, in their nuclear-missile, political-ideological, bloc edition. Nuclear deterrence at various levels and in various contexts remained the dominant theme. Other important topics are international military-political crises like those in Berlin and the Caribbean; regional conflicts involving third countries, such as the Middle East; local wars, such as Korean, Vietnamese and Afghan; guerrilla movements in Asia, Africa and Latin America complemented the picture of the worldwide confrontation between the two blocs. Ensuring a minimum level of international security under these conditions put in the forefront the problems of arms control, primarily nuclear, and ensuring stability on the central front of the Cold War - on the European continent.

The rapid end of the Cold War at the turn of the 1980s. changed the security agenda almost overnight. A situation was created in which all the major powers found themselves at peace with each other, and one of the powers - the United States of America - advanced to the then undisputed position of the global hegemonic leader.

Nuclear weapons remained in service with the few states that possessed them, but nuclear deterrence quickly faded from the forefront of world politics to a "background" level. The balance of conventional arms, the constant struggle to maintain which gave an unrelenting impetus to the arms race, lost its former significance with the cessation of the military-political confrontation. Economic ties and financial flows, unchecked by more closed borders and ideological barriers, have created a truly global space for capitalism. The main security problems since the early 1990s. began the formation of partnerships - and in some cases allies - relations between former Cold War adversaries and the stabilization of countries and regions where a security vacuum had arisen with the collapse of the bipolar order. With the retreat of the threat of a global nuclear catastrophe, nonproliferation issues have become of paramount importance - beyond the "recognized" nuclear powers- weapons of mass destruction, especially nuclear, as well as missile and other advanced military technologies.

The center of gravity of international security issues has shifted from relations between the superpowers and their coalitions to relations within unstable countries and territories that have emerged as a result of the collapse of a number of states - primarily in the Balkans, as well as in the former USSR, from Moldova to the Caucasus and Tajikistan. The term "failed (or falling) state" (failed state) appeared. Peacekeeping has become a hot topic in this regard - from traditional UN peacekeeping operations to efforts to restore and enforce peace. The need to ensure a post-conflict settlement has necessitated international assistance in the formation of new states (nation/statebuilding). All these efforts were carried out, as a rule, on a collective basis, on the basis of a mandate of the United Nations, in the Security Council of which there was an unprecedented unanimity of the permanent members of the Council.

This unanimity, however, did not last long. Emerged in the second half of the 1990s. Disagreements between Russia and Western countries, led by the United States, have blocked the possibility of making agreed decisions. Under these conditions, peacekeeping has transformed into the practice of humanitarian interventions. In the field of theory, efforts have been made to modernize international law with a shift in emphasis from state sovereignty and territorial integrity to human rights. There has been a turn from efforts to end the conflict between the parties to intervention in favor of one of the parties to the conflict and the subsequent “restoring order”. The new world order of the 1990s was marked by the distinct dominance of one power "organizing" the rest of the world. The military, political and economic capabilities of the United States allowed such intervention in almost any region of the world. The US and NATO operation against Yugoslavia (1999), air strikes on Iraq, Afghanistan, and Sudan had, however, serious consequences for US-Russian relations. In the Russian foreign policy concept, national security strategy and military doctrine there are elements of hedging potential threats coming from a partner.

The terrorist attacks on New York and Washington, inflicted by Islamists on September 11, 2001, became a revolution in the development of security issues for the United States.

Islamic radicalism and extremism, which adopted terrorism and brought it to the global level, began to be perceived throughout the world as the main threat to international security.

A broad anti-terrorist coalition emerged, uniting the countries of the West, Russia, China, India, Iran and many other states. The search for ways to effectively counter terrorism and neutralize the socio-economic, political and ideological factors that give rise to it has become the main direction of research in the field of international security.

The antiterrorist coalition, however, did not last long in a broad format. While the US operation in Afghanistan, which began in October 2001, was actively supported by almost all states, the invasion of Iraq in 2003 took place without a mandate from the UN Security Council. At the same time, if the allies who criticized the actions of the United States - Germany and France - after some time restored the previous atmosphere in relations with Washington, then in relations with Russia, disagreements on international security issues deepened and soon acquired a fundamental character. While counter-terrorist and counter-insurgency operations, as well as nation-building have become a topical area of ​​research in the United States - in relation to countries such as Iraq and Afghanistan - in Russia there has been a tendency to oppose US hegemony. In a vivid form, this trend was manifested in the speech of President Vladimir Putin in Munich in February 2007. The problem of security, therefore, turned out to be closely linked to the issues of world order and global governance (global governance).

On the other hand, the ever closer intertwining of domestic political problems with foreign policy issues, including in the aspect of security, has led to an increase in the role of the ideological factor and the latest communication technologies. Initially, the "color revolutions" in the countries of Eastern Europe, the Caucasus and Central Asia in 2000-2005, and then the events of the "Arab spring" of 2011-2012. and "Maidan revolution" in Ukraine in 2013-2014. made possible largely due to the use of protest forces social networks. At the same time, in Georgia, Syria, Libya and Ukraine, internal political processes have led to wars with the participation of external forces.

Technological progress has created a new realm of digital communications, which has become a field not only of cooperation and interaction, but also of new threats. Everyone's addiction modern societies from information technologies forces to look for methods of counteracting various cyber threats and - at the same time - ways to conduct offensive operations against possible adversaries. It's not just about opportunities, it's about real facts confrontation between states in cyberspace. In fact, for the first time since the advent of nuclear weapons in the 1940s. a fundamentally new sphere of the use of force in international relations. Ensuring cybersecurity, accordingly, is becoming one of the most important problems of modern international security.

Another new area of ​​security policy is to counter negative climate change on Earth. Since the 1990s there is a process of coordinating the efforts of all states in order to reduce carbon dioxide emissions into the atmosphere, which destroy the ozone layer around the Earth and create the effect of global warming. Despite the ongoing scientific debate over the causes of the increase in the Earth's temperature, the very fact of the increase average temperature is generally recognized. Warming can cause serious consequences on a planetary scale, such as the flooding of vast and now densely populated territories, entire states.

The mobility of the population, which has increased many times in recent decades, has created a number of serious problems. Uncontrolled migration creates ethnopolitical instability in developing countries and an additional burden on the social sphere in developed countries. The concentration of foreign cultural elements without their assimilation leads to the formation of socio-cultural enclaves that destroy the traditional way of life and challenge the values ​​of the host society. In all cases, the external environment turns out to be a source of serious threats to the internal structure of modern societies.

The development of means of transportation makes modern societies more vulnerable to various kinds of epidemics.

In principle, the threat of cross-border epidemics is one of the oldest in human history. Suffice it to recall the Great Plague of 1348, which significantly reduced the population of medieval Europe, or the terrible flu epidemic (“Spanish flu”), which brought millions of Europeans to the grave in 1918. The colossal reduction in the “pain threshold” of modern societies makes the governments of leading states take care of medical safety in the most remote parts of the world, stopping the spread of epidemics.

The development of cross-border ties also creates opportunities for the formation of cross-border criminal communities. International Crime- from money laundering and human trafficking to drug trafficking and clandestine arms trade - turns out to be closely connected with others global threats, including international terrorism. In principle, this situation contributes to the unification of the most diverse states of the world in the face of a common danger threatening them. In reality, however, political differences rooted in the difference or opposition of interests of individual states hinder effective interaction.

Modern technology has led to the actualization of very old security threats such as piracy or the slave trade. In the 2000s The vacuum of power - and therefore security - in Somalia has revived piracy off the eastern coast of Africa, to combat which it was necessary to create an international coalition consisting of the United States and other NATO countries, China, India, Russia and other countries.

The slave trade has become profitable business, especially in the Middle East, and hostage-taking with their subsequent use for propaganda purposes has become one of the technologies of modern terrorism.

Despite these colossal shifts of the last three decades, the traditional agenda has not gone completely into the past. The Ukrainian crisis of 2014 demonstrated that the process of forming a multipolar world will not necessarily be conflict-free. The sanctions imposed on Russia by the United States of America, the European Union, Japan and a number of other countries obviously undermine the process of globalization and raise issues of economic and information security in a completely different plane. The role of nuclear deterrence in relations between the great powers has again increased, despite the fact that the number of these powers has grown. It is obvious that the problems of European security are returning - in a renewed, but generally familiar form. On the agenda is the task of ensuring security in Asia - from the Korean Peninsula and East and South China Seas. The most complex set of security problems arose in the Near and Middle East. The emergence of Islamist formations in Iraq and Syria, as well as attempts to create them in West and East Africa (Nigeria, Mali and Somalia) pose a new challenge to practitioners and theorists of international relations and foreign policy.

Today, the development of world politics and international relations is taking place in conditions of very contradictory processes, characterized by high dynamism and interdependence of events. Increased vulnerability of all members international community in the face of both traditional (“old”) and “new” challenges and threats.

It would seem that in connection with new scientific and technological, economic and social achievements, the expansion of the circle of users global network The Internet, the spread of democracy, advances in freedoms and human rights since the end of the Cold War and the fall of communism have increased opportunities for communication across borders, the exchange of goods and services, the movement of people, and the improvement of their standard and quality of life. At the same time, the loss of the old and the absence of new levers for regulating the world order have seriously deformed the traditional link between national sovereignty and national security, and led to the emergence of new problems that cannot be resolved by military means. Among them are the unreliability of the UN institutions and mechanisms in ensuring global security; US claims to world domination; dominance of the Western media in the global information space; poverty and bitterness of the population of the global "South"; consequences of the collapse of multinational states; degradation of the Westphalian system; political aspirations of subnational groups and regions; the growth of ethnic and religious extremism; separatism and political violence; regional and local armed conflicts; preservation of the integrity of states, distribution and diversification of WMD; cybercrime and high-tech terrorism using weapons of mass destruction; international corruption and organized crime; uncontrolled cross-border flows of migrants; growing environmental degradation; planetary shortage of food, drinking water, energy resources, etc. All this increases the importance of the liberal-idealistic paradigm in the study of world politics and international relations.

As can be seen, with a relative decrease in the importance of military threats, the potential carriers of which remain states, on a planetary scale, there is an increase in non-military threats to global security. Increasingly, non-state organizations are becoming sources of threats and tools for their neutralization. characters of various kinds, including multinational corporations, financial, military-political, religious, environmental, human rights, criminal, global terrorist organizations, subnational actors and regions. “In such a situation,” Pavel Tsygankov points out, “the insufficiency of the theoretical baggage available in international political science becomes more and more obvious. There was a need for new conceptual constructions that would allow not only to rationally comprehend the changing realities, but also to play the role of operational instruments of influence on them in order to reduce the risks and uncertainties that international actors faced.

If earlier the main lever of influence on the international situation was considered the power of the state on the basis of its main power (English: hard power), then in the context of globalization, the state and international organizations more often they began to rely on the use of soft influence, or soft power (English: soft power). Thus, in response to the tragic events of September 11, 2001, which firmly connected US security with global security, the Americans began to make systematic efforts to expand the zones of global stability and eliminate some of the most egregious causes of political violence. They also increased their support political regimes which, in their opinion, proceeded from the fundamental value of human rights and constitutional mechanisms.

Analyzing the US National Security Strategy of 2002, R. Kugler draws attention to the fact that it is aimed not only at solving the most complex security problems today and counter threats “from terrorists and tyrants”, but also to promote global economic progress, combat global poverty, strengthen open societies and democracy, ensure human freedoms in disadvantaged regions, uphold the pursuit of respect for human dignity. In his opinion, the solution of these problems results in a "specific American internationalism" aimed at creating a balance of power that favors human freedom and makes the world safer and better in the context of globalization.

In recent years, the concept of UN peacekeeping has taken a comprehensive approach to overcoming both military and non-military threats. Therefore, maintaining and consolidating peace in any region today is not limited only to containing armed violence, enforcing peace and creating conditions for organizing a negotiation process. Peacekeepers are tasked with assisting the parties to the conflict in restoring the economy, ensuring civil law and order, protecting human rights, preparing and holding elections, transferring power to local authorities, organizing local self-government, healthcare, education, etc. Great importance is attached to educational work aimed at on the reconciliation of the participants in the conflict, the formation of their attitudes towards non-violent resolution of contentious issues, tolerant behavior using the media

Already in the middle of the XX century. it became obvious that problems arose in the development of society, which, if they are not resolved with the participation of all countries of the world, threaten the death of civilization on Earth. They were called the global problems of our time. At the turn of the XX-XXI centuries. new threats to humanity have been added to the previously known problems. They are connected with the process of globalization. Scientists, statesmen looking for ways to solve all these problems. However, the 21st century challenges not only intellectuals and politicians, but everyone living on Earth. It is necessary to combine the efforts of all states, all peoples, public organizations and movements, all people in order to jointly avert the existing threats to human society. What problems need to be addressed? What are the possibilities for this?

Ecological problems. Over the years of study, you have already met them in the lessons of geography, biology, history, and social science. Remember: what are these problems? What are the ways to solve them? We hope that you have enough knowledge to independently assess the significance of these problems and determine how to overcome them.

The threat of thermonuclear war. Although the military confrontation between the two world systems, which you know about from the course of history, is a thing of the past and measures have been taken to limit the stocks of nuclear weapons, the remaining arsenals of such weapons are sufficient to destroy all life on Earth. Especially dangerous is the possibility of creating nuclear weapons in countries where aggressive forces are in power, prone to adventurism in foreign policy. Even a local nuclear conflict threatens with dire consequences for vast territories. Therefore, the most important problem is the creation of a nuclear-free, non-violent world, the solution of international conflicts not by military, but by political means. This is a necessary condition for the preservation of life on our planet.

International terrorism. At the end of XX - beginning of XXI century. the danger of terrorist activity has increased significantly. It is no longer limited to stocks. individual groups terrorists, but is carried out systematically by large organizations of an international scale, covers entire countries, vast regions. The severity of the consequences of terrorist acts has increased. If earlier the victims of terror were individuals, for some reason hated by the terrorists, now there are thousands and tens of thousands of innocent people. Of particular danger is the possibility of terrorist organizations obtaining weapons of mass destruction - nuclear weapons, chemical poisonous substances, biological agents of infection. fatal diseases. Such weapons would allow them to terrorize entire states and their governments.

The fight against terrorism requires the unification of the efforts of the world community, the elimination of the causes that give rise to terrorist activity, and the activation of the protective function of states.

Overcoming economic backwardness, poverty and poverty of the countries of the "third world". Hundreds of millions of people in these countries live in conditions that are far removed from those of developed countries by centuries of economic and social progress. (Remember what you learned about this in your geography course.) The population of highly developed countries (the “golden billion”) consumes 88% of the total world product, while the fifth part of the inhabitants of the Earth living in the poorest countries consumes only 1.5% of this product. Eliminating the gap in economic and cultural development between developed countries and the developing world, hunger, poverty and illiteracy, in which hundreds of millions of people live, is one of the difficult problems inherited from the 20th century.

Socio-demographic problems. They are associated primarily with an increase in the growth rate of the world's population ("population explosion") at the expense of developing countries. This is one of the causes of mass disasters, famine, disease, lack of normal housing, illiteracy, unemployment in this zone of the world. At the same time, there is a demographic crisis in economically developed countries due to a drop in the birth rate in them below the level necessary for the change of generations and the preservation of the population. Different birth rates in different areas of the world give rise to migration from economically underdeveloped countries to more prosperous countries, where there are problems of assimilation of visitors who do not speak the languages ​​of these countries and do not observe local customs.

According to the UN in 2000, the number of inhabitants of our planet was 6 billion, and 10-12 billion are predicted for 2050. Further growth of the Earth's population, according to many scientists, will cause an acute shortage of resources necessary for human life. Before humanity in the XXI century. there is the problem of population regulation, the implementation of a well-thought-out demographic policy in various regions of the world.

Drug addiction and drug business. The consequences of drug use are detrimental both for the individual and for society: the degradation of the individual and, as a result, her failure as a parent, worker, member of society; the negative impact of drug addiction on the gene pool of the nation; crimes committed to raise funds for the purchase of drugs. However, the drug business is one of the most lucrative forms of criminal activity. The drug trade, which has an international character, paves the way for the transportation of sinister goods across the borders and territories of many states. All this threatens the security of countries and peoples and therefore requires their significant efforts, coordinated actions of the legal, forceful, social and educational plan.

Backlog in the development of methods for the treatment and prevention of the most dangerous diseases. AIDS poses many questions for humanity. This disease, according to scientists, threatens to take away more lives than the plague in medieval Europe. She knows no boundaries and no one can stop her. States must take measures to protect against contracting the disease from other people who are already infected. It is necessary to look for funds to pay for expensive drugs that are needed to treat AIDS patients.

New types of microorganisms are emerging that can cause epidemics of dangerous diseases, such as, for example, SARS, bird flu etc. Often it is not possible to establish the causes of their occurrence. Assumptions are made about the possibility of unpredictable mutations of existing pathogens, which result in their previously unknown dangerous properties. Concerted action by the world community is required to counter these dangers.

The problem of preventing the dangerous consequences of scientific and technological progress, the use of its results to the detriment of humanity. Experts speak of ominous possibilities genetic engineering. The probable consequences of cloning animals, especially people, have not been calculated. There are concerns about the possible use of scientific and technological achievements to establish total control and management of people's behavior. Crimes involving information technology are of great danger. Computer viruses launched in global network, can cause enormous damage, threaten economic, military, information security. It is necessary to foresee the negative consequences of scientific and technological progress, to direct it for the benefit of society and man.

The danger of large-scale accidents in industry, energy, transport. The Chernobyl disaster showed that the consequences of accidents at nuclear facilities can go far beyond national borders. The number of victims reaches a high level. The importance of measures to ensure the safety of nuclear facilities is growing. It is necessary to control the safety of chemical production, main power lines, oil pipelines.

Threats to culture, spiritual development of man. modern science notes the menacing scales of crime, drug addiction, alienation from culture. He also draws attention to the excessive spread of the spirit of material consumerism. The development of modern technologies makes it practically impossible to prevent the appearance in the press and on television screens of anti-social information that promotes violence, pornography, offends religious feelings, and satisfies aggressive groups. High art, masterpieces of world culture are often forced out of magazine pages, television screens by fakes mass culture designed for primitive taste.

Modern ideologies, like world religions, have not been able to provide adequate responses to the challenges of the 21st century. Preachers of extremist views, religious sects that deform the consciousness and behavior of a person seek to take advantage of this.

The volume of available information exceeds the human ability to perceive and use it. People do not have time to adapt to the fundamental changes in the conditions of existence that occur during the life of one generation, which gives rise to stress, disorientation, discomfort, anxiety and anxiety.

All this raises questions about how to preserve and protect the values ​​of national and world culture from destruction, about modernizing the entire system of education and upbringing, about the need for tireless work to strengthen the moral foundations of society. Much depends on each person, on his spiritual wealth, ability to follow the principles of morality in the face of the increasing complexity of the spiritual life of society, readiness to independently respond to the challenges of a changing world.

So, on the threshold of the 21st century, there have been threatening trends in society. But there is the possibility of choosing a path in which it will be possible to avoid their dangerous development.